A potential ceasefire between the US and Iran is beginning to emerge. According to some reports, negotiations are progressing in the right direction and markets are cautiously optimistic that hostilities may be drawing to a close. Oil prices have dropped significantly so far this week, allowing the Brent Crude benchmark to drop below the psychologically important $100 level. Brent futures are currently trading for $99, while WTI futures are down to $88 per barrel. West Texas prices were further assuaged by an unexpected buildup in US crude inventories last week, while the strategic petroleum reserve has remained stable at just over half of maximum capacity.
Although nothing concrete has been established as of yet, markets have welcomed the recent developments with open arms. The Japanese Nikkei 225 index opened notably higher this morning, gaining 3% before pulling back. The Korean Kospi index, which suffered a number of brutal price swings over the past two weeks, likewise made a prudent move higher as the session got underway. US stock markets have been hammered over the past few weeks, but the major indices are once again on the front foot so far this week and futures contracts are in the green going into today’s session.
The whiplash in precious metals continues. Monday saw a huge selloff in gold, pushing prices all the way down to $4,100 per ounce, but the move quickly reversed course after sweeping the lows and precious metals have since gained a measure of positive momentum. Gold and silver both pushed higher this morning, with the former climbing back up to $4,600 per ounce, while silver managed to claw its way back over $74 after seeing lows of just $61 on Monday. Cryptocurrencies meanwhile continue to exhibit a rare display of stability, with Bitcoin content to hover around $70,000 per coin. Despite all the surrounding commotion, Bitcoin has remained within a relatively tight price band for the past six weeks, reacting very little to developments in Iran. Cryptocurrencies are normally all too happy to plummet at the first sign of trouble, so the current behaviour suggests a fundamental change in market structure.
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