Financial Analyst/Content Writer, RADEX MARKETS
Lawrence J. came from a strong technical and engineering background before pivoting into a more financial role later on in his career. Always interested in international finance, Lawrence is experienced in both traditional markets as well as the emerging crypto markets. He now serves as the financial writer for RADEX MARKETS.
AKTIEN
Investors are still reeling from the stock market bloodbath that saw the Nasdaq Composite tumble into correction territory late last week. The midterm elections are over, and financial markets are adjusting to the new playing field that will shape US politics over the next two years. The only question being asked is whether or not the carnage is over, and whether stocks have been sufficiently re-priced as a result of the shifting landscape. Friday may have seen a minor rebound in equities, but the overall mood remains sombre and US stock futures are a mixed bag going into today’s session. Politics is unlikely to affect much in the short term; the problem is what happens to chip manufacturer and AI company sales forecasts in 2028 and beyond. To that point, Anthropic is now in a very tricky position with regard to its IPO. Although there was never an official date for the offering, many had predicted a Nasdaq listing as early as next week, but the company may well decide to delay the launch until early next year as a result of the midterm chaos.
As for the wider equities market, a look at the raw numbers unveils a fairly straightforward narrative: the Dow fell 0.9% last week, while the S&P 500 and NDX lost 2.7% and 4.9% respectively. While the technology sector got hammered, the broader market spectrum is proving to be much more resilient.
While the tech-heavy Asian stock markets surged initially this morning, pushing the Nikkei 225 to a 3% gain as trading got underway and granting the Kospi a 1% rise of its own, both markets faced renewed selling pressure later on in the session. In Taiwan, TSMC quickly recovered from the damage incurred last Friday, climbing over 7% early in the day before subsequently pulling back somewhat.
Precious metals are also attracting bids this morning, with gold punching back above $4,100 per ounce and silver reaching $53, as platinum and palladium also saw moderate inflows. Bitcoin tried and failed to hold on to $75k earlier this morning but in general cryptocurrencies remain relatively flat as traders adopt a wait-and-see approach going into this week.
Last Friday introduced an interesting dilemma in the form of the October NFP figures, which surprised everyone with a massive 165k additional jobs, smashing a consensus of just 65 thousand, while revisions to previous months added a further 84k jobs to the ledger. The U-3 unemployment rate ticked down to 4.1% last month from 4.2% on the prior reading, although the wider U-6 rate rose to 7.9% from 7.6% over the same period. Strong labour data, coupled with third quarter GDP growth estimates of 3.4%, point to an economy that remains ‘hot’ – a fact that will not escape the board members of the Federal Reserve. The latest job figures immediately triggered a repricing of the next FOMC decision on the 9th of December, with interest rate traders now pricing in a 25-bps hike with an 80% probability. The US dollar likewise surged after the data release, pushing the DXY 0.7% higher and staging a return to the 102-point range. With capital pouring out of leveraged tech positions, the greenback is likely to remain the safe place to be for now, which will put even more pressure on the euro, on top of the macroeconomic headwinds already facing the common currency.
No more elections this week, in fact there is very little going on in terms of scheduled events. Currency traders should keep an eye out for the latest US CPI print on Tuesday, which may shift expectations again with regard to interest rate adjustments on the greenback. Markets will remain open on Wednesday despite Armistice/Veterans Day. The UK will deliver the first estimate of third quarter GDP growth on Thursday, before the US publishes the latest data on home sales. US PPI figures grace the calendar on Friday, completing what will hopefully be a rather boring week.
About the Author
Lawrence J. came from a strong technical and engineering background before pivoting into a more financial role later on in his career. Always interested in international finance, Lawrence is experienced in both traditional markets as well as the emerging crypto markets. He now serves as the financial writer for RADEX MARKETS.
Reviewed by RADEX MARKETS
Risk Warning: Trading derivatives and leveraged products carries a high level of risk, including the risk of losing substantially more than your initial investment.
Der Handel mit Derivaten und gehebelten Produkten ist mit hohen Risiken verbunden und kann zu Verlusten führen, die Ihre ursprüngliche Investition übersteigen. Lesen Sie vor dem Handel unsere Allgemeinen Geschäftsbedingungen (T&C) sowie das Product Disclosure Statement (PDS).
KONTO ERÖFFNEN