Oil prices rose sharply on Tuesday as the US-Iran ceasefire drew to an end, pushing Brent Crude up to $99 per barrel and the West Texas Intermediate benchmark up to $90. Markets were further flustered by the cancellation of Vice President JD Vance’s trip to Pakistan after Iran shunned planned peace talks in Islamabad. Events took another turn late last night when President Trump announced an extension to the ceasefire, leaving Iran time to “come up with a unified proposal”. Crude oil reacted positively to the ceasefire extension this morning, with both benchmarks falling by around a dollar per barrel. The stranglehold on oil deliveries has forced some countries, most prominently India and China, to tap into floating supplies of Russian and Iranian crude oil already at sea. According to some reports, these offshore supplies have fallen rapidly in the past month, from 20 million barrels of Russian oil pre-conflict to just 5 million barrels currently.
Potential re-escalation in the Middle East drove capital flows back into the dollar on Tuesday, driving the DXY up to 98.4, although volatility appears to be contained for the time being. The same fears weighed on precious metals, forcing gold down 2% to $4,720 per ounce and causing silver to shed $3 during yesterday’s session; much of the damage has already been undone as of this morning. US stocks also lost out yesterday, albeit marginally, with the major indices forfeiting around 0.5% by the daily close. An early look at Asian stock markets suggests that investor sentiment remains upbeat, as confirmed by US futures, which are also in the green going into today’s session. Cryptocurrencies complete the picture, with Bitcoin pushing back above $78,000 earlier this morning. Crypto markets are enjoying the additional boon of large capital inflows this week, most notably from Strategy, which purchased a staggering $2.5 billion worth of Bitcoin on Monday. A reminder that Tesla (TSLA) are scheduled to report quarterly earnings after market close later today.
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