BERITA FOREX

A few years back, Hollywood gave us the movie Next, starring Nicolas Cage, who could see ten minutes into the future. Handy if you’re trying to stop an international terrorist attack, but downright lethal if you’re trading forex. With that kind of superpower, you wouldn’t just be profitable; you’d probably break the global financial system within a week. Sadly, unless you’ve got Nostradamus in your family tree, predicting market prices with that level of accuracy will forever remain the stuff of dreams (and questionable Hollywood scripts). But traders have never been people to give up easily. If we can’t see into the future, we’ll happily build machines that try to. Enter the latest quantum leap in technology: artificial intelligence (AI). AI has already stormed into our daily lives — recommending the shows we binge, correcting our spelling mistakes (sometimes incorrectly), and answering our questions at the speed of light. It is no surprise then that traders are now asking: ‘Can AI help me beat the forex markets too?’ Once upon a time, forex trading meant staring at candlestick charts until your eyes watered, drawing mysterious lines across them, and convincing yourself you had found the “secret pattern” that nobody else in the world had ever spotted. Spoiler alert: you hadn’t. Then came the era of algorithmic trading and expert advisors (EA’s); pre-programmed rules that could buy and sell on your behalf. These “algos” were basically glorified to-do lists for computers: “If EUR/USD hits this price, buy. If it drops that far, sell. If it does neither, do nothing.” The good EAs worked well enough, but they still rely entirely on human logic and human programming. Many EAs are still used today by traders around the world. Fast forward to today, and we’re watching the birth of something far more sophisticated: AI-powered trading. Unlike those early algos, AI doesn’t just follow instructions — it learns, adapts, and sometimes makes decisions its human creators can’t fully explain. Hedge funds and investment banks were the first to jump all over this shiny new toy. With deep pockets, supercomputers, and clever PhDs running around, they started building AI systems that could crunch mountains of data faster than you can say “spread betting.” From economic reports to social media posts, AI now has the ability to digest more information in a second than a human trader could in a lifetime of Red Bull-fuelled all-nighters. Of course, as with all things in finance, what the big players use tends to trickle down to retail traders sooner or later. Trading platforms are already experimenting with AI-driven bots, pattern recognition tools, and even sentiment analysers. The question is no longer “Is AI coming to forex?” but rather “How soon before it becomes as common as the moving average indicator?” Advantages of AI in forex trading If there’s one thing traders love, it’s an edge. And AI comes loaded with shiny new edges, like a new flying car designed by Elon Musk. Let’s explore the advantages of AI: 1. Speed & efficiency AI can scan hundreds of charts, analyse historical data, and spot patterns faster than you can say “take profit.” While a human trader might spend hours poring over a GBP/USD chart, AI can check the entire forex market in seconds and still have time to order itself a metaphorical flat white. 2. 24/7 trading Humans need to sleep, eat snacks, and the occasional Amazon prime binge to stay sane. AI, on the other hand, doesn’t care if it’s 3 a.m. in Japan or lunchtime in London. It can monitor the markets continuously, catching opportunities while human traders are busy wondering about what to have for lunch. 3. Data processing power AI thrives on data, the more it gets, the better. It can crunch not only price charts but also economic reports, central bank speeches, and even the mood swings of Twitter (or X, depending on how old you are). This ability to factor in multiple streams of information gives AI an analytical depth that would take a human a lifetime to match. 4. Reduced emotion Let’s face it: emotions are the Achilles’ heel of many traders. Fear, greed, and revenge-trading have destroyed more accounts than bad internet connections. AI, however, doesn’t feel a rush of adrenaline when it sees a big candle forming. It simply follows its data-driven models, calmly placing trades without any squeaky bum moments. 5. Consistency AI doesn’t get bored, distracted, or suddenly decide to “just wing it.” Once trained, it applies its logic consistently, which can remove the wild swings that often comes with human decision-making. In short: AI is like the disciplined trader we all wish we were — fast, tireless, data-hungry, and immune to panic. The limitations of AI in forex trading You might be asking yourself by now, ‘why am I even bothering to trade in the traditional way, why not just AI take over?’ Before we crown AI the king of forex trading, we should take a sobering look at its flaws. Because while AI is clever, very clever indeed, it’s not exactly infallible and sometimes, it’s as clueless as a tourist trying to read a London Tube map for the first time. 1. The black box problem All AI models, especially the complex ones, often can’t explain how they reach their own conclusions. That’s comforting when you’re asking it to recommend a great place to eat out… but less so when it’s risking your hard-earned cash. If your AI bot loses ten trades in a row, don’t expect it to lean back and say, “Well, here’s where I went wrong.” More likely, it’ll just sit there smugly, convinced it’s still right. 2. Market unpredictability AI loves patterns — it thrives on them. The problem? Markets don’t always behave predictably. Black swan events like wars, pandemics, or surprise political tweets can blow even the smartest algorithm out of the water. AI may know how EUR/USD usually reacts to a U.S. jobs report, but it’s less equipped to handle Trump announcing he’s invaded Greenland “as he likes Polar Bears.” 3. Accessibility and cost The best cutting-edge AI systems live in the exclusive world of hedge funds and big banks, guarded by PhDs and expensive security hardware. Retail traders often get watered-down versions. Think of it like buying instant coffee while the pros sip freshly ground Columbian espresso. It works, but it’s not quite the same. 4. Dependency risk There’s also a real danger of traders becoming overly reliant on AI. If you let the machine do all the thinking, you risk losing your own trading skills. And let’s be honest; if your Wi-Fi crashes and your AI bot goes silent, would you actually know what to do? Or will you just sit there staring at your screen, praying for your robotic overlord to return? 5. Human intuition still matters AI is great at crunching numbers, but it doesn’t have a human “gut instinct.” It can’t read between the lines of a central banker’s speech, sense the tone of a geopolitical headline, or notice that the big gold traders suddenly look nervous. Sometimes, even with all the available resources AI has, the human touch still has the edge. Bottom line: AI may be powerful, but it’s not magic. It is a tool; and like all tools, it’s only as good as the person who using it. Human vs. AI: Who wins? Picture this: On one side, you’ve got the AI — the data-driven genius with perfect recall, lightning reflexes, and zero sense of humour. On the other, you’ve got you, the human trader, a bit scrappy, emotional, sometimes reckless, but streetwise with a pretty reliable gut instinct. Together, you’re either going to clean up in the markets… or blow your trading account to pieces. What AI brings to the table What humans still do best The truth is, asking who wins — humans or AI — is a bit like asking whether Doc or Marty McFly is the real hero. The answer is that they work best together. AI can filter the noise, crunch the data, and provide signals. Humans can bring judgment, context, and the ability to say, “Actually, maybe don’t short the dollar five minutes before this month’s NFP data.” In other words: AI plus human trader equals a potentially powerful duo, if we remember who’s driving the DeLorean (hint: it should be you, not the bot, not just yet anyway!). The future: Where is AI taking forex trading? If history has taught us anything, it is that traders will adopt any new gadget that promises even the slimmage of edges — whether it’s Fibonacci spirals, crystal balls, or that one lucky pair of pants. You can bet your bottom dollar that AI isn’t just a passing fad in forex; it’s here to stay. The real question is: what will it look like in the future? 1. Smarter, faster, and more accessible We are likely to see AI trading tools become more powerful and more widely available. The hedge funds and big banks may still hoard the fanciest new toys, but retail platforms are catching up fast. In a few years, it could be as common to plug an AI bot into you’re your chart window as it is to slap on a 200 Moving Average. 2. AI that understands context The dream is AI that doesn’t just crunch numbers but also understands context. Imagine a system that can read a central banker’s speech, detect the subtle nervous coughs, and say, “Yep, rates are definitely coming down.” That’s where natural language processing (NLP) and machine learning are heading. It won’t be Nicolas Cage seeing 10 minutes ahead, but it might get close enough to be super scary. 3. Regulation and responsibility Of course, with great power comes… great regulatory headaches. If your AI bot accidentally causes a flash crash, who’s responsible? You? The AI developer? The robot itself? Regulators are already scratching their heads on this one, and we can expect stricter rules as AI becomes more common in trading. 4. Human + AI partnerships The most realistic future isn’t AI replacing traders but AI supporting traders. Maybe think of it as your wing man: crunching the data, flagging the risks, and leaving the final decision to the human in charge. The best traders of tomorrow may not be the ones who reject AI outright, but those who learn to work with it. 5. Will AI replace traders entirely? Unlikely. After all, the markets are driven by humans; their fears, hopes, politics, and unpredictable behaviour. AI can analyse patterns, but human chaos is much harder to code. For better or worse, traders will probably still be around, arguing on Instagram and blaming their brokers when things go wrong. The future? AI will almost certainly play a bigger role in forex trading, but don’t worry, it’s not about to kick you out of your chair just yet. More likely, it will slide up next to you, whisper some data-driven advice, and then let you make the shot. In conclusion Will AI be the future of forex trading? Inevitably, yes. It’s fast, tireless, immune to emotional meltdowns, and capable of digesting more data in a second than most traders could in a lifetime. It’s already reshaping the way hedge funds and banks trade, and retail traders are quickly catching up. But let’s not kid ourselves. AI is not a magical crystal ball. It struggles with unpredictable events, it doesn’t have human intuition, and it can’t yet read the subtle smirk of a central banker who’s about to drop a policy nuke. The smartest traders of the future won’t hand over the wheel entirely they will use AI as a powerful wing man while keeping their own hands firmly on the controls. In other words: AI may be the Ferrari of forex trading, but you’re still the one in the driver’s seat. If you treat it as a tool and not as a magical money machine — it might just help you navigate the winding road of the forex markets with fewer crashes and maybe even earn you a few extra pips in your pocket. And if all else fails? Well, you can always go back to watching Nicolas Cage movies and dreaming about seeing ten minutes into the future. It’s cheaper, less stressful, and the snacks are not bad either.

Last Friday’s NFP release all but confirmed that we are getting a rate cut during next week’s FOMC meeting. 75 thousand new jobs were expected in August, but the latest report revealed that the actual figure was in fact only 22 thousand. Before the latest jobs numbers, interest rate traders were already leaning heavily in favour of a 25-bps cut, but after Friday’s data drop, market participants are now entertaining the possibility that the Fed will commit to a stronger move and slash rates by a full 50-bps instead. Whatever the size of the cut, monetary easing is around the corner. Despite the abysmal employment figures, the reaction in US stocks was relatively muted. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones lost modest amounts while the Nasdaq ended the day almost flat. The Dollar lost around half a percent against major currencies but once again, nothing significant. Precious metals hosted the bulk of the drama last Friday, which saw gold briefly reach up to a record-breaking $3,600 per ounce. The metal opened high this morning and is currently deliberating on its next course of action. The move into gold is a global phenomenon, fuelled by rate cut expectations on the Dollar, but perhaps more generally by a growing sense of uncertainty within financial circles. Countries around the world continue to stockpile precious metals, with the Chinese central bank adding to its reserves for the tenth consecutive month. There may yet be some twists and turns in the road before next week’s interest rate decision. The first arrives tomorrow in the form of the non-farm payrolls annual revision, a more comprehensive data set which includes tax records and is considered more accurate than the usual monthly reports. Last year’s revision slashed 818 thousand jobs from the annual figure, from 2.9 million jobs initially – a 30% correction. A similarly significant report tomorrow may paint a different picture of the US labour market entirely. Things complicate further on Wednesday with August PPI figures and again on Thursday with the latest batch of CPI data. The two reports will provide the newest information about inflationary pressures in the US and may factor into the Fed’s next move. A poor labour market coupled with higher inflation is not a situation any country wants to be in and leaves the central bank with difficult decisions to make. In Europe meanwhile, the ECB is expected to maintain rates steady on the Euro at 2.15% on Thursday. Geopolitical events could provide some entertainment in financial markets this week as France’s Prime Minister faces a confidence vote later today which he is fully expected to lose. The French economy boasts one of the highest debt-to-GDP ratios in the world and yields on French bonds continue to rise. The Japanese Prime Minister meanwhile resigned yesterday, potentially paving the way for an advocate of greater looser fiscal policy to take up the mantle. Either way the path forward for the Bank of Japan remains a complicated one. #NFP #Inflation #Gold

The international oil trade is a tricky one. Power generation, transport, agriculture, construction and huge swathes of industrial output are totally reliant on consistent and timely deliveries of black gold. A nation deprived of oil will fall to its knees almost immediately. Oil exporting nations meanwhile are just as dependent on crude oil because it often makes up the bulk of their economic output. It is little wonder therefore that oil is often subjected to sanctions, embargoes, tariffs, price caps and any number of trade restrictions limiting the free flow of this vital resource. Ongoing oil sanctions In a bid to put economic pressure on Russia, the US recently enacted measures penalising countries who continued to buy Russian oil and gas. As part of the same gesture, the European Union has banned seaborne imports of Russian crude oil and has reduced its reliance on such by around 90% compared to five years ago. Venezuela has been subjected to US sanctions, which have substantially affected the country’s output and revenue. Iran is also no stranger to such measures, having long been subject to US sanctions levelled against its crude exports. But what happens when a given nation is sanctioned in this way? Does the leadership of the affected country simply throw up its arms and give up? What are they to do? Leave the money on the ground? Logistically, how would a sanction be enforced anyway? In reality, enforcement is very difficult. There is no global police force to survey every inch of every border, nor one to monitor every shipping lane or port. International law is only real as far as it is applied. Crude oil has the added complication of being largely fungible. Without advanced forensic techniques, it is very difficult to say where a given volume of oil came out of the ground. This is made all the more complex when different oils are blended together to obfuscate their origin. Besides, almost no one cares enough to find out. No tracking number, no clear properties besides density and sulphur content. Perhaps sanctioned countries can export after all. As the saying goes, where there is a will, there is a way. Shadow fleets Provided the country in question is not landlocked, getting the oil to the coast is trivial. But this is where oil exporters begin to employ a certain level of… creativity. The first problem is finding a vessel willing to take on the sanctioned cargo. Some sanctions cover entire shipping fleets, as is the case with the US sanctions on Sovcomflot, Russia’s state-owned shipping giant, while others reach all the way down to specific vessels. Any company caught transporting illegitimate crude oil will likely face harsh punitive measures from anyone planning on staying in America’s good books. To bypass this, such cargoes are typically loaded onto older vessels of unclear ownership, registered in jurisdictions far removed from traditional shipping networks. Suffice to say these vessels have less than optimal insurance coverage and often make use of flags of convenience. These tankers would utterly fail any kind of environmental or safety inspection and would otherwise be condemned to a one-way trip to an Indian scrapyard. The ship’s paperwork would certainly raise a few eyebrows in any respectable port of entry. Alas, beggars cannot be choosers. Once loaded with the outbound crude oil, the laden tanker gets on its merry way. While at sea, the vessel will likely turn off its AIS transponder, an unsafe practice which makes it invisible to other ships and essentially untrackable. It may also provide false information to marine traffic systems, such as port of origin and cargo type. One by one, these ghost ships take to the high seas, together forming a shadow fleet of crude oil tankers intent on evading detection at all costs. To cover their tracks even further, tankers will transfer their cargo to other vessels while still at sea, often in international waters, far away from prying eyes. Some journeys may implement several ship-to-ship transfers, creating further confusion. Certain vessels may even pretend to be different vessels entirely, making the trail of ownership utterly impossible to unravel. The receiving ship will inherit a catalogue of forged documents and possibly even rename and reflag at sea – just like Nicolas Cage in Lord of War. The crude oil eventually makes its way onto the final cargo ship. Destination: China. Teapot refineries Shadow fleets have become ruthlessly effective at their task, but constitute only the first step in evading sanctions. Crude oil is of limited use until it has been refined, which is where the next stage of the operation comes into play. Once the tanker enters Chinese waters, it sets course for one of the lesser-known ports of entry, typically in Shandong province. These ports are located in close proximity to small independent crude oil processing plants known as “teapot refineries” due to their reduced scale. These teapots typically process around 50,000 barrels a day, which is only a tenth of what a major refinery would handle. Such installations are not state-run and therefore operate at a greater distance from the normal compliance standards enforced by Chinese law. This allows them to be somewhat more opportunistic and flexible with whom they choose to do business. Teapot refineries, due to their age and size, are not as efficient as their larger counterparts. Moreover, they often lack the more advanced technology necessary to produce high-end products such as jet fuel or low sulphur diesel. Their economic viability stems from their ability to purchase sanctioned oil, which is priced substantially lower than the market rate. After all, the seller is in no position to haggle and is more than happy to get any price above the cost of extraction. Iranian crude will typically sell $20 per barrel below the Brent benchmark, while Venezuelan oil may be acquired at up to a $30 discount. Once the vessel is cleared to dock, the port authorities are assured that everything is definitely above board and the cargo is marked as originating from Malaysia or somewhere. Wink wink, nothing to see here officer. Alternative payment rails This brings us neatly onto to question of payment. Going to all the effort of avoiding sanctions at sea is totally useless if the seller cannot take payment once the shipment reaches its destination. In many cases, the nation in question will have no access to USD wire transfers and will likely have been blacklisted from the SWIFT messaging network. Once again, a measure creativity is required. In the case of Chinese Teapot refineries, payment may be settled in Renminbi (RMB) via local Chinese banks. Those funds are then used to purchase goods in China, such as vehicles, infrastructure, or advanced telecoms equipment. Other times, the currency step is skipped entirely and the countries in question engage in barter trade instead. Iran and India have resorted to such trades in the past, in which Iranian crude oil was exchanged for pharmaceuticals and food items. Arrangements can even involve three different parties, engaging in triangular bartering agreements including oil, equipment and military support for example. Extreme operations, such as crude oil sales from Russia to North Korea, are so opaque as to be essentially unknowable. Cryptocurrencies are a growing option for evading financial sanctions and are used extensively among all the countries mentioned above, but present some critical flaws. Firstly, just as in the traditional banking system, accounts/addresses can be monitored, blocked and blacklisted. By necessity, blockchain forensics is a growing discipline and the usual cat-and-mouse games are alive and well. The bigger problem however is the issue of on/off ramps. Sending a $1 billion transaction is trivial on any blockchain, but how does the recipient turn that into cold hard cash? Over-the-counter desks for this kind of thing can be found in Hong Kong and the UAE, but would struggle with the volumes typically required. Smaller amounts are always possible, but it is easy to see why bartering remains so prominent. Bottom line The moral of the story is that true sanctions are impossible. No enforcement agency has the power and reach to stop countries from trading with one another should they wish to do so. Enforcing a strict sanction can even have the opposite of the intended effect, because it forces the targeted nation into becoming more economically resilient, as is the case with Russia for example. As for the future of teapot refineries, it is difficult to make predictions. Supply and demand both fluctuate considerably within international oil markets and smaller refineries are more vulnerable to such volatility. Sanctions are even more fickle, imposed and lifted with little warning. Such clandestine operations are at the mercy of temperamental geopolitical trends, but for the time being, shadow fleets and teapot refineries are not going anywhere.

Gold successfully completed a six-day rally yesterday, breaking through $3,500 an ounce with absolutely no resistance. The precious metal continued to push higher still this morning in the Asian session, pushing as high as $3,547 at one point. Silver meanwhile came within touching distance of $41 earlier today. September has historically been the worst month for US stock performance and as superstitious as Wall Street can be, it is little wonder that traders are looking for other avenues of investment. Late summer woes are only one part of the explanation however, as a number of factors are contributing to the thunderous rise in gold. First and foremost is the expectation that the Federal Reserve will lower rates on the Dollar during the next FOMC meeting, scheduled a mere two weeks from today. In the eyes of many, the current economic climate in the US more than justifies a 25-bps cut, which raises the question: is a bigger cut in play? This week will provide a number of data points on the US labour market, not least the latest non-farm payroll report on Friday. If the numbers are bad, it is possible the Fed will be forced to lower rates more than expected to spark some life into the American economy. More generally, a growing sense of uncertainty is beginning to pervade global markets. Foreign central banks are now holding more gold than US treasuries, something that has not happened since the 1990s. Nations around the world have been shoring up their gold reserves all year and are showing no signs of letting up. The problems are not limited to a lack of confidence in the Dollar, although that is certainly part of it. The bigger issue is the lack of confidence in fiat currencies in general. Bond yields around the world are on the rise. Euro bond yields have recently climbed to multi-year highs, while yields on 30-year UK gilts are at their highest since 1998. Yields on 30-year US treasuries meanwhile are a hair’s breadth under 5%. High yields mean low prices, which means investors are selling. The reasons why remain unclear but there are two problems two consider. Firstly, the sell-off points to a lack of confidence in government debt. Secondly, if such high yields are available to investors, it puts into question the current high valuations in stocks. If investors can get a safe 5% from bonds, why bother with a volatile stock market? It is worth asking how crypto fits into the picture. Bitcoin enjoyed fresh record highs in August but has recently come down to more modest levels. A rate cut on the Dollar will certainly make crypto more appealing, but the bigger question is whether or not the world of digital currencies will ever act as a safe haven in the same way that precious metals do. It is interesting that Bitcoin rose in tandem with gold and silver yesterday, although the correlation is by no means established. #Gold #BondYields #Crypto

Introduction We all love a bit of gold trading, don’t we? Super shiny, coveted, and somehow still more reliable than your local internet connection! Whether you’re a newbie trader staring hopefully at your candlestick charts or a seasoned institutional trader with a sixth sense for next big market move, gold has its own unique appeal It has been treasured for millennia—from ancient bronze-aged kings to your grandma’s vintage wedding ring—and still today, it glitters like a bright star in the night sky on the Forex markets. But why bother trading gold, you might ask yourself? Well, aside from the obvious “it makes you a lot of money,” gold has a unique charm: it tends to hold value when the economy goes south, when interest rates do the tango, or when geopolitical events make headlines. In short, it’s the financial equivalent of a pacifier to a screaming baby! In this article, we’ll take an informative, slightly quirky journey through gold’s trading history, examine how global events—like the recent wars in Ukraine and Gaza—shake-up the markets, and look at what factors that could drive the price of gold in the next 12 months. Along the way, we’ll weigh up the pros and cons of trading gold and look at the current market price. So, grab a cup of your best coffee, and let’s talk about the treasured shiny stuff. The History of the Gold Price Humans have been obsessed with gold for thousands of years—and its price history reads like a dramatic Hollywood movie. Back in 1971, when the U.S. decided to ditch the gold standard, gold prices began their crazy rollercoaster ride. In the 1980s, gold flirted with highs around $850 per troy ounce, giving early traders a reason to celebrate (or cry, depending on which direction they were trading). Fast forward to the 2000s: the financial crisis of 2008 sent gold skyrocketing. Investors, fearing the collapse of central banks, flocked to the “safe haven” metal, and by 2011, gold hit an all-time high of around $1,900 per ounce. Some traders were swigging the Bollinger; others were quietly kicking themselves for selling too soon. Of course, markets aren’t just about numbers, they’re about people. The COVID-19 pandemic, for example, saw gold prices climb again, hovering around $2,000 per ounce at times. Uncertainty drives demand, and gold loves uncertainty like a Dog loves a walk. Looking back, the main lesson for trading gold is clear: gold has survived wars, crises, and even political shocks for the global economies. For traders, it’s both a safety net and a wild ride, sometimes soothing, sometimes thrilling, but always exciting. Geopolitical Events and Gold (Ukraine & Gaza) Gold is the world’s unofficial “financial panic button.” When global tensions flare, investors rush to it like it’s the last lifeboat on the Titanic. Two recent examples— the war in Ukraine and the conflict in Gaza have both shown exactly how geopolitical events can really shake-up gold prices. The Ukraine war, starting in 2022, it triggered a rush toward gold as investors sought safety amid economic uncertainty and the threat of sanctions. The metal prices spiked, reflecting fear, uncertainty, and the classic “better be safe than sorry” mentality. Traders watching gold charts go up probably felt like they were on a runaway train with chance of it stopping. Meanwhile, tensions in Gaza also sent ripples through the markets, though on a somewhat smaller scale. Even localized conflicts can create global uncertainty, and gold tends to benefit from these jitters. Essentially, gold doesn’t care about borders or people; it only cares about fear, uncertainty, mixed in with a dash of global chaos. For traders, these events underscore a simple rule: geopolitical crises can move gold more than your average economic news release. And while you don’t want to hope for war just to make profit (“no, we seriously, don’t want this”), staying aware of global events is key to making informed trading decisions when trading gold. Factors Driving the Gold Price Gold doesn’t just move on a whim—it dances to a mix of economic, political, and even slightly dramatic influences. What are the main drivers? In short, gold reacts to a mix of economic indicators, global uncertainty, and the age-old push-pull of supply and demand. Understanding these factors gives traders a map through the glittering—but sometimes unpredictable—gold market. Advantages and Disadvantages of Trading Gold Trading gold isn’t all rainbows and butterflies—it has its ups and downs. Here’s the lowdown for newbie and intermediate traders: Advantages: Disadvantages: In short, trading gold offers excitement and security in equal measures but, it’s not a guaranteed winning ticket. You need to approach it with a robust strategy, a bit of humor, and maybe a box of tissues on hand, just in case. What to look out for in the year ahead There are a number of factors that are likely to impact the price of gold over the course of the following year: While certain assumptions can be made, it's important to note that gold prices can be volatile and unpredictable. Traders should stay informed about global economic and political developments that could impact the market. Conclusion Gold trading is a dazzling mix of history, economics, and a little bit of human psychology. From ancient civilizations hoarding the shiny stuff to modern traders navigating complex Forex charts, gold has maintained its allure—and of course, its value. Geopolitical conflicts, central bank purchases, and even oil price shocks all add twists to the story, making gold a dynamic but sometimes unpredictable market. With new exciting markets emerging such as the rise in digital currencies, Bitcoin and Ethereum for example, well, gold still has a top seat at the table and remain so for a very long time. For traders, gold offers both security and excitement: a way to diversify portfolios, hedge against uncertainty, and maybe even enjoy a little thrill when the charts spike, or dip. Just remember, it can be a very volatile market and if you get it right, you will be on top of the world; get it wrong and, like most traders, you mark it down as a lesson well paid for! In the end, gold remains the glittering asset in an ever-changing world. It may not pay you any dividends, but it sure knows how to make an entrance. So fellow trader, keep your wits about you, keep your eye peeled on global events, and let gold add a sparkle to your trading experience. Disclaimer: The analysis provided is for informational and illustrative purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. The ideas shared are based on the guest author’s independent analysis and do not constitute investment recommendations or financial advice from Radex Markets. Radex Markets cannot guarantee, and assumes no legal liability or responsibility for, the relevance, accuracy, currency or completeness of the information. All decisions to trade in financial markets involve risk, and it is the client's responsibility to assess their financial situation, level of experience, and risk tolerance before trading.

September has arrived. Only a few weeks of summer remain and the fourth quarter is fast approaching. The next Fed decision, scheduled for the 17th, is now widely expected to deliver a rate cut and certain assets are beginning to reprice accordingly. Gold rose by $30 last Friday to $3,447 per ounce following the publication of the latest PCE price index and continued to push higher this morning, reaching $3,486 earlier in the day. Impressive, but nothing compared to the price action currently unfolding in the silver markets. After trying and failing to breach $40 an ounce last Friday, silver shot straight to $40.50 after markets opened this morning in Asia and is now re-entering territory not explored since 2011. The release of the July PCE price report also prompted a selloff in US stocks last Friday, pushing the major indices to modest losses. The report fell in line with predictions and showed that headline inflation remained at 2.6% in July, while core inflation nudged higher to 2.9% from 2.8% in June. For all the commotion in stocks and precious metals, the Dollar has stayed relatively unfazed, keeping the DXY around 98. North American markets are closed today due to Labour Day, but the economic calendar has more than enough to offer this week to make up for it. Manufacturing PMIs dominate proceedings for the next couple of days before Services PMIs take over later in the week. Besides inflation, the Fed also has unemployment to worry about and this week will present a comprehensive picture of the US labour market. The JOLT survey is set to be released late on Wednesday, followed by the ADP employment change on Thursday. The big event of the week however will be NFPs on Friday. Last month’s report caused quite the stir, revealing poor jobs figures in July but more worryingly, publishing heavy revisions for previous months. Predictions for August are much more tepid, with only 78k new jobs expected and unemployment levels rising to 4.3%. Until then, all eyes on precious metals. #Silver #Gold #NFP