July 18, 2025
After suffering a series of setbacks earlier in the week, all three crypto bills finally passed through the House of Representatives yesterday. The Genius Act, which focuses on the issuance of stablecoins, now only awaits the signature of president Trump. The Clarity Act and Anti-CBDC Act meanwhile still have to face the scrutiny of the Senate. A collective sigh of relief swept through the crypto sphere following the successful vote, among developers and investors alike. While shares in Coinbase (COIN) and Robinhood (HOOD) obviously took the news very well, the bigger surge is currently unfolding in the wider cryptocurrency market. Bitcoin has been relatively stable in recent sessions, consolidating near record highs of $120k, but the real drama is currently unfolding in the alt market. Alt coins up and down the table have experienced staggering gains this week and some voices are already calling for “alt season”. Whether or not such calls are justified is up for debate, but the bigger picture is certainly more optimistic than it has been in a long time. Greater regulatory clarity can only be a good development for the beleaguered industry and the steps made this week have already prompted the likes of JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup and Bank of America to announce their intent to embrace stablecoins.
US retail data published yesterday revealed a surprise increase in sales in June, while the latest unemployment figures uncovered an unexpected fall in jobless claims. The combined data points pushed the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite indices to new record highs. Both indices received a helping hand from tech giants Microsoft (MSFT) and Nvidia (NVDA), which both hit record highs of their own yesterday. Nvidia continued to push north of a $4 trillion valuation after the chipmaker received permission to sell its H20 chips to China.
Yesterday’s CPI report confirmed a slight increase in inflation last month in the US. The headline figure fell in line with predictions at 2.7% annually while core inflation, which excludes food and energy prices, came just below expectations at 2.9%. The response in US indices was mixed, with the Dow Jones and S&P dropping 1% and 0.4% respectively. Meanwhile, Nvidia (NVDA) and Microsoft (MSFT) both notched new record high closes yesterday, pushing the Nasdaq Composite index to a record high of its own. Nvidia stock surged 4% following news that the company had been given the green light to resume selling chips to China after having previously been banned from doing so.
All three crypto-related bills failed to advance through the House of Representatives yesterday following procedural hurdles. While close, Tuesday’s vote was enough to block the Genius Act, Clarity Act and Anti-CBDC Act from moving forward. The result was an obvious blow to the crypto industry, but several hours later president Trump announced that the congressmen blocking the vote had agreed to change their position following a meeting in the Oval Office. A second vote could proceed as early as this morning. Crypto companies such as Coinbase (COIN) initially reacted poorly to the development but recouped much of the losses by the closing bell. Understandably, cryptocurrencies also took a sizeable hit but as with Coinbase, the sector still has hope that the new legislation will see the light of day sooner rather than later. Bitcoin pushed all the way to $123k on Monday but now rests at around $117k. Interestingly, the broader alt market suffered less than Bitcoin, resulting in a significant drop in Bitcoin dominance.
Tuesday saw a number of major US banks report their second quarter earnings, marking the unofficial start of earnings season. JPMorgan (JPM), Wells Fargo (WFC), Citigroup (C) and Blackrock (BLK) are already out, while Bank of America (BAC), Goldman Sachs (GS) and Morgan Stanley (MS) are set to report later today, as are Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) and ASML Holding (ASML). Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) and Netflix (NFLX) are among the heavy hitters on Thursday, while American Express (AXP) and 3M (MMM) report on Friday.
Silver convincingly pushed north of $38 an ounce last Friday, matching prices not seen since 2011. The move has been a long time coming and follows in the footsteps of other precious metals. Gold has understandably had its fair share of headlines this year, haven risen 28% since January and breaking record after record long the way. Despite a lack of comparable coverage, silver is up 33% over the same time frame. Precious metals in general have been very active recently, with platinum establishing a fresh record high on Friday at $1,459 per ounce and copper achieving the same accolade the week prior. If anything, silver is still lagging behind and has a lot of catching up to do before it surpasses its historic high of $49.95 an ounce set all the way back in 1980. There are a number of factors pushing silver higher. Part of the reason is simple spillover from the broader metals market, resulting in a rotation into silver from copper and other metals. A larger reason is that fundamentally, the case for silver remains strong due to robust industrial demand coupled with tightening international supplies. Silver is useful for a number of applications including solar panels and electric vehicles – both growing sectors – while geopolitical uncertainty is having a negative effect on key mining regions. Supplies in the London vaults are supposedly dwindling.
After reaching a record high last Friday, Bitcoin pushed higher still over the weekend and continued to break new ground this morning. Prices are now above $122,000 and the crypto sphere is currently undergoing a market-wide surge. As valuations rise, so too does the hype surrounding “crypto week” in the US, a week during which several crypto-adjacent bills will be discussed and voted on in Congress. The purpose of all of this is to foster greater regulatory clarity in the cryptocurrency sector, for developers and users alike.
Very little to whet the appetite this week. Inflation is the only real item on the menu, with the US and Canada reporting on Tuesday, the UK publishing on Wednesday, Eurozone on Thursday and finally Japan to close out the week on Friday. The US inflation figures will no doubt have an influence on the next Fed rate call scheduled for the end of the month. A slight increase is expected from the 2.4% recorded in May, with analysts forecasting a year-over-year headline figure of 2.6% in June. Meanwhile, tariffs are back in the arena, as this weekend Trump threatened the EU and Mexico with a new batch of 30% duties, to take effect on the first of August.
We mentioned previously that cryptocurrencies had been uncharacteristically calm over the past couple of weeks. That all changed last night when Bitcoin decided to rip straight to $117k, surpassing its previous record of $112k established back in May. The wider crypto sphere wasted no time in getting in on the action, driving the alt market into a frenzy of activity. The sudden rise in prices comes days before “crypto week” kicks off next Monday, which will see the US House of Representatives discuss a number of bills relating to cryptocurrencies. The GENIUS act, which aims to provide the regulatory framework surrounding stablecoins, is arguably the most prominent element of the agenda and is expected to pass without too much drama. The second item is the CLARITY act, which seeks to formally define “digital commodities” as well as establish proper boundaries between the SEC and CFTC. The third bill is the Anti-CBDC Surveillance Act, which aims to block the Fed from creating a central bank issued digital currency.
Beyond crypto, the wider technology sector also enjoyed modest gains over the past couple of days. Nvidia (NVDA) became the first company in history to achieve a $4 trillion valuation on Wednesday, beating Apple (AAPL) and Microsoft (MSFT) to the milestone. The Nasdaq Composite index hit back-to-back record highs over the past two sessions while the S&P 500 also achieved a fresh all-time high yesterday. The Dollar meanwhile continued to exhibit minor signs of strength, pushing the DXY to just south of 98.
The latest FOMC minutes unveiled a difference of opinion among board members, with some arguing for rate cuts as early as later in month, while others do not see the need for any adjustments until next year. Fed governors Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller have both been open about the possibility of a rate cut during the next meeting on the 30th of July, although their voices remain in the minority for now.
We mentioned previously that cryptocurrencies had been uncharacteristically calm over the past couple of weeks. That all changed last night when Bitcoin decided to rip straight to $117k, surpassing its previous record of $112k established back in May. The wider crypto sphere wasted no time in getting in on the action, driving the alt market into a frenzy of activity. The sudden rise in prices comes days before “crypto week” kicks off next Monday, which will see the US House of Representatives discuss a number of bills relating to cryptocurrencies. The GENIUS act, which aims to provide the regulatory framework surrounding stablecoins, is arguably the most prominent element of the agenda and is expected to pass without too much drama. The second item is the CLARITY act, which seeks to formally define “digital commodities” as well as establish proper boundaries between the SEC and CFTC. The third bill is the Anti-CBDC Surveillance Act, which aims to block the Fed from creating a central bank issued digital currency.
Beyond crypto, the wider technology sector also enjoyed modest gains over the past couple of days. Nvidia (NVDA) became the first company in history to achieve a $4 trillion valuation on Wednesday, beating Apple (AAPL) and Microsoft (MSFT) to the milestone. The Nasdaq Composite index hit back-to-back record highs over the past two sessions while the S&P 500 also achieved a fresh all-time high yesterday. The Dollar meanwhile continued to exhibit minor signs of strength, pushing the DXY to just south of 98.
The latest FOMC minutes unveiled a difference of opinion among board members, with some arguing for rate cuts as early as later in month, while others do not see the need for any adjustments until next year. Fed governors Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller have both been open about the possibility of a rate cut during the next meeting on the 30th of July, although their voices remain in the minority for now.
Tariff talks have once again put US stocks on the back foot. On Monday, the three major indices closed around 0.9% lower, but with the exception of the Dow the losses did not extend any further during the following session. There are now only three weeks left before the reciprocal tariffs come into effect on the first of August and the administration has made it clear that there would be no further extensions to the deadline. In addition, president Trump announced a 50% tariff on copper imports into the US and threatened to impose tariffs of up to 200% on pharmaceutical goods. Copper futures shot up over 10% following the announcement.
Precious metals are struggling to pick a direction. Despite a general sense of unease in financial markets, gold failed to capitalise on investor fears, instead falling 1% yesterday. The precious metal is currently hovering around the $3,300 mark, which is still 10% higher than when the liberation day tariffs were first announced. Silver meanwhile remains poised just below $37 an ounce. Any breakout to the upside from the current range would see the metal challenge decade-long valuations. It is a similar story for Bitcoin, which remains crouched under $110,000 after a week of uncharacteristically calm trading conditions. Traders await the next trigger.
The latest Fed decision to maintain the current 4.5% interest rate shocked no one. The logic behind the decision is also unlikely to provide any surprises. The point of interest is whether or not some board members are beginning to drift away from Jerome Powell’s steadfast position. Odds for the next meeting are still 90%+ in favour of a rate hold, so if there are indeed voices of dissent, they remain ignored for now. The Dollar has pushed marginally higher this week, pulling the Euro back to $1.17 and Cable down to $1.36.
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