NOTÍCIAS FOREX

The rally in gold suffered a minor setback last Friday after trade tensions between the US and China showed signs of thawing. Market sentiment softened after President Trump mentioned that the proposed high tariffs on Chinese goods were probably not sustainable, while a spokesperson from the Chinese Ministry of Commerce admitted that the recent rare-earth export controls were more about national security than anything trade-related. Treasury Scott Bessent and Chinese Premier He Lifeng will meet later this week to discuss matters. The conciliatory tone has taken some of the edge off the precious metal trade for now, but it is too early to tell if the selloff will continue into this week. Gold started today’s session a little more timidly, although interestingly, cryptocurrencies were on the front over the weekend and early this morning. The US government shutdown is stretching into its third week, with no end in sight. The closure of various government departments is playing havoc with data collection agencies, meaning traders are not getting the usual inflow of economic data. Nor is the Fed for that matter. Despite navigating in the dark, interest rate traders are still locked on to a 25-bps cut on the 29th of October, with admirable conviction. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will throw markets a bone on Friday, in the form of its September CPI report. The figures, published weeks behind schedule, are likely to be the last piece of information the Fed will have to work with before next week’s decision. Yearly inflation is expected to rise to 3.1% according to forecasts. The void of economic data will in part be filled by earnings reports this week. Netflix (NFLX), GE Aerospace (GE) and Coca-Cola (KO) report on Tuesday; Tesla (TSLA), SAP and IBM follow on Wednesday; finally, everyone’s new favourite company Intel (INTC) are scheduled to release their latest earnings on Thursday. Global events are lining up to suppress crude oil prices. De-escalation between Israel and Hamas has eased delivery fears in the area, while the Iraqi government recently announced plans to resume oil exports from the Kurdish region via Turkey, further adding to local supplies. Meanwhile, OPEC elected to increase crude production by 137,000 barrels per day earlier in the month and is expected to continue to ramp up production in the near future. Inventories are a mixed bag at the moment but the amount of crude oil held on tankers worldwide has increased significantly in recent weeks. On the other hand, further reconciliation between the US and China would likely result in increased industrial production, and therefore oil consumption, but the effects of such may not be felt for a while longer. Brent crude futures are down to $61 a barrel as of this morning. #TradeWar #Metals #Oil

Gold closed yesterday’s session comfortably above $4,300 per ounce and bullion prices are now $1,000 higher than they were just two months ago. The macro environment is still good for gold, as trade tensions between the US and China remain high and global uncertainty continues to pervade financial markets. Central banks became net buyers of gold following the financial crash of 2008, but the stockpiling of precious metals really ramped up following the conflict in Ukraine. The past few years have seen record purchases of gold by emerging markets in an attempt to become less dependent on the US dollar. Silver has also had a stellar week so far. Not content to rest on its laurels after breaking its long-standing record last Friday, the white metal has continued to push higher over the past few sessions, closing above $54 per ounce last night. The flight to safety has not carried over to cryptocurrencies whatsoever. Bitcoin started the month on the front foot, but the cascade of liquidations last Friday has sent prices below $110k per coin. Cryptocurrencies are looking fragile, as are many crypto traders. The recent crash was not a pretty sight and revealed just how vulnerable large swathes of the ecosystem are. By most estimates, $19 billion in leveraged positions were wiped out over the course of the collapse. The initial catalyst, namely the new tariff war with China, explains the initial sell-off, but not the ensuing carnage. The biggest problem was the lack of liquidity on platforms such as Binance and others, combined with traders generally being over-leveraged. The rapid price action weakened many of the financial instruments used by traders and led to synthetic assets de-pegging from their intended value. Technical problems exacerbated matters further, with many traders reporting being unable to open or close problems and UI issues displaying incorrect pricing information. There are rumours of the crash being coordinated to cause as much damage as possible, which certainly seems plausible given the targeted nature of the attack. Binance has since pledged a $400 million bail-out fund to help affected traders and restore confidence in their platform. Adding to the mystery, an unknown whale pocketed a tidy $192 million thanks to a well-timed short placed just before the tariff announcement, prompting speculation about insider trading. So much for “Uptober”. #Gold #Silver #Crypto

If the US President Donald Trump had a toolbox, it probably wouldn’t contain a spanner, a screwdriver, or even a tape measure. No, the only tool in there would be a big shiny hammer labelled “TARIFFS”, and man, does he like to swing it around. To the average American voter, tariffs might sound like a patriotic plan to “Make America Buy Local Again.” To businesses, they’re more like an extra cost that no one anticipated. And to forex traders? Well, tariffs are a gift that keeps on giving, a bit like a movie with unpredictable plot twists and occasional laugh out loud moments. But before we get ahead of ourselves, let’s make this clear: tariffs are not just about protecting American steel mills or making the latest Nike’s cost twice as much. They ripple through the entire global economy, jolt investor confidence, stir inflation, and, most importantly for us, send currencies bouncing around like popcorn in a hot frying pan. Think about it. Every time Trump announces a new tariff (usually with the dramatic flair of a late-night TV salesman), forex traders everywhere suddenly lean closer to their screens, whispering: “Here we go again.” Because when tariffs hit, the U.S. dollar might spike as a safe-haven or collapse under inflation worries. Emerging market currencies either get walloped, or, if they’re lucky, dodge the tariff bullets and rally. In short: Trump’s trade wars are a currency trader’s worst nightmare or adrenaline rush. In this article, we’re going to unpack Trump’s tariff obsession, look at who pays the price, and, most importantly, explore how these policies affect the currency markets. We’ll keep things light (because trade wars are stressful enough), occasionally make fun at the chaos, and help forex traders see both the risks and the opportunities hiding inside the tariff drama. Donald Trump talks about tariffs the way some people talk about their favourite Tomato sauce, with passion, confidence, and the absolute certainty that it goes well with everything. Steel? Tariff it. Cars? Tariff them. Pharmaceuticals? Hell, why not, slap a tariff on those too. If it can cross a border, Trump believes it can (and probably should) carry a nice big, fat import tax. Now, to be fair, Trump does have his reasons, and to him, they’re completely airtight. The official line goes something like this: tariffs will encourage Americans to buy more “Made in the USA” products, raise money for Uncle Sam through extra tax revenue, and shrink that pesky trade deficit (the gap between what the U.S. imports and what it sells abroad). In Trump’s words, America has been “pillaged” by foreigners for decades, so tariffs are his way of sending the bill back across the US border. But here’s where things get interesting (and at times confusing). Tariffs aren’t just about trade. Trump often ties them to… well, almost anything. One week it’s about protecting U.S. jobs. The next week it’s about pressuring Mexico to do more on border security. Another time, tariffs were threatened against countries trading with Russia unless peace magically broke out in Ukraine within 50 days. In other words: tariffs are not just a tool; they’re also a bargaining chip, a pressure point, and occasionally, a megaphone for whatever’s on Trump’s mind that day. For forex traders, this is where the fun begins. Because every time Trump opens his mouth about tariffs, whether it’s a carefully planned policy or a “let’s see what happens” kind of announcement, markets react. Sometimes the U.S. dollar flexes its muscles as investors pile into it as a safe haven. Other times the dollar slumps, as traders worry that higher import costs will mean more inflation, slower growth, and a grumpier Federal Reserve. And the foreign currencies on the receiving end? They often get dragged into the ring whether they like it or not. The Mexican peso, Chinese yuan, Canadian dollar, and Japanese yen have all taken rollercoaster rides during Trump’s tariff crusades. One day they’re down because of higher U.S. duties, the next they’re up because a “deal” is supposedly around the corner. It’s exhausting for governments, but for traders who thrive on volatility, it’s pure gold. So why should forex traders care about Trump’s love affair with tariffs? Because tariffs are like caffeine shots for the markets: they jolt everything awake, send currencies racing, and keep you glued to your trading screen. Love him or hate him, Trump has turned tariffs into one of the most market-moving forces out there, and in forex, that’s exactly where opportunity lies for you, the savvy currency trader. If politics is theatre, then Trump’s tariff policies are pure Broadway. What started as a few duties here and there has turned into a full-blown world tour of economic slap downs. Let’s look at the highlights from the Tariff Greatest Hits collection: And then there are the country-specific punishments. Trump announced a “baseline” 10% tariff on almost all imports, then dialled it up depending on how much he felt each country had wronged the U.S.: And in the middle of all this chaos, Trump struck a deal with the EU: 15% tariffs on European goods in exchange for zero duties on some U.S. products. Trump called it “the biggest deal ever made.” Traders called it “slightly less terrible.” Now, if you’re a forex trader, here’s why this circus matters: tariffs hit countries unevenly. A 50% tariff on Indian or Brazilian goods makes investors nervous about those economies, which can weaken the INR or BRL. Meanwhile, currencies from countries that cut deals with the U.S. like the euro or the GBP might get a short-term boost. And the U.S. dollar? It sits in the middle of the action, either climbing as a safe-haven currency or wobbling as inflation fears creep in. Every tariff headline is like a drumroll; you don’t know if the dollar is about to take a bow or trip over its shoelaces. Tariffs may look like a boring tax policy on paper, but in practice they’re a never-ending rollercoaster for forex markets. Or as traders might put it: “Thanks for the volatility, Mr. President. Can we play the game again?” Tariffs may seem like simple taxes on imported goods, but in the financial world, they’re more like tipping over the first domino in a very long, very wobbly chain. And the last domino? Yes, you guessed it, the currency markets. Here’s how the cascade usually works: Take a real example: when Trump raised tariffs on Vietnam and Indonesia, suddenly Nike and Adidas were looking at billions in extra costs. Both companies announced price hikes for American customers. That fed straight into U.S. inflation numbers, which in turn fuelled speculation about what the Fed would do next. And for traders? It meant volatility in USD/JPY, EUR/USD, and even emerging market pairs like USD/VND. This is why forex traders don’t just watch tariff news, they obsess over it. Tariffs create uncertainty, and uncertainty is the rocket fuel of the currency market. Each new announcement can flip sentiment in a heartbeat. One minute the dollar looks bulletproof, the next it’s wobbling like a Penguin. Of course, while businesses and consumers groan about higher prices and disrupted supply chains, forex traders often see opportunity. Volatility means wider trading ranges, sharper moves, and more setups for both day traders and swing traders. It can be stressful for sure, but if you’ve ever whispered a quiet “thank you” to Donald Trump after catching a perfect breakout on USD/CAD, you are not alone! So, when tariffs hit, don’t just think about factories and shipping containers. Think about the ripple effect, inflation, interest rates, central bank reactions, because that’s where currencies really start to dance. And in forex, that dance floor is where the money’s made. Like any good reality TV show, Trump’s tariff saga has its fair share of winners and losers, though “winning” often means “losing slightly less than everyone else.” And just like in forex, one country’s misery is often another countries opportunity. Let’s start with the losers. Top of the list: U.S. consumers. Tariffs might be aimed at foreign producers, but the reality is that Americans end up footing the bill when companies raise prices to cover higher import costs. Clothes, coffee, electronics, toys, even your favourite Air Fryer, all a little pricier thanks to the tariff train. Inflation creeps higher, household budgets stretch thinner, and forex traders perk up, wondering if the Fed will swoop in with a policy response. Next up: countries directly hit by tariffs. If you’re Brazil, India, or Canada, a 35–50% tax slapped on your exports to the U.S. is a serious blow. Your economy slows, investor confidence wobbles, and here’s the forex angle; your currency usually takes the hit. The Brazilian real, Indian rupee, and Canadian dollar have all had their fair share of sleepless nights under Trump’s tariff hammer. And of course, U.S. manufacturers also lose out. A modern car, for example, doesn’t just roll off one production line, its parts often cross borders multiple times. With every crossing now more expensive, costs spiral. This dents profits and slows business investment. Now, onto the winners. Strangely enough, countries that avoid tariffs or strike favourable deals with the U.S. can sometimes benefit. The EU’s deal to secure 15% tariffs instead of 50%? That’s like haggling down the price of a luxury handbag, you’re still paying a fortune, but you feel like a genius for saving you have made. Their currencies (like the euro) might even get a short-term lift as markets cheer the “deal.” Another winner? Forex traders. Yes, really. While everyone else grumbles about higher prices and slower growth, traders rub their hands together at the juicy volatility. Tariffs trigger swings in major pairs (EUR/USD, USD/JPY), emerging market currencies (USD/MXN, USD/BRL), and even safe havens like the Japanese yen and Swiss franc. If you like volatility, and let’s be honest, most traders secretly do, then Trump’s tariffs are like Christmas morning. Finally, there’s gold. Every time tariffs spook the markets, investors often flee into safe-haven assets. Gold rallies, the dollar wobbles, and forex traders find themselves dusting off their XAU/USD charts. Tariffs might not have been designed to boost precious metals, but they’ve certainly helped gold stay at all-time highs recently. So yes, tariffs reshuffle the deck of winners and losers on a near-weekly basis. And for forex traders, that means plenty of rollercoaster moments. One day your chosen currency is soaring, the next it’s in freefall. But hey, without a little chaos, trading would be boring, wouldn’t it? The U.S. dollar has a very complicated relationship with tariffs, the kind of on-again, off-again drama that would put a daytime soap opera to shame. Sometimes tariffs make the dollar look strong and dependable, other times they turn it into a jittery mess. It all depends on how investors read their tea leaves. On one side of the love story, tariffs can strengthen the dollar. Why? Because when global markets get spooked, say, when Trump slaps a 50% tariff on Canadian maple syrup or threatens 200% duties on medicines, investors go running for safe-haven assets. And at the top of that list, alongside gold and the Japanese yen, sits the good old greenback. Fear makes people cling to the dollar like it’s a financial life raft. But then there’s the hate part. Tariffs can also hurt the dollar by raising import costs, pushing up inflation, and slowing economic growth. Higher prices mean the average American spends more on basics and less on extras, dragging on GDP. If growth takes a dive, the dollar tends to follow. In some cases, traders even start betting that the Federal Reserve will cut rates to soften the blow, which puts further downward pressure on the currency. The result? A dollar acting like a rebellious teen. One minute it’s storming out of the room in protest (weakening on growth fears), the next it’s back to being the centre of attention (rallying on safe-haven demand). For forex traders, this makes USD pairs, especially EUR/USD, USD/JPY, and GBP/USD, some of the most exciting and unpredictable to trade during tariff drama. And here’s the kicker: the same tariff headline can trigger opposite reactions depending on market sentiment at the time. A new round of tariffs might send the dollar up if investors panic, or down if they decide it’s bad for the U.S. economy. It’s less about the actual numbers and more about the story the market chooses to believe. So, if you’re trading during the tariff saga, don’t expect the dollar to give you straight answers. It’s not a loyal partner; it’s a wildcard. But in forex, unpredictability isn’t always a bad thing, it just means more opportunities to profit (or lose, if you’re on the wrong side of the move). If history has taught us anything, it’s that trade wars rarely stay in their own lane. Slap tariffs on your neighbour’s goods, and sooner or later somebody starts fiddling with exchange rates. Welcome to the world of currency wars, the financial version of throwing spaghetti at the wall to see what sticks. Take the U.S. and China, for example. When Trump ramped up tariffs on Chinese imports, Beijing didn’t just shrug and accept the bill. Oh no, instead, the Chinese yuan was allowed to weaken. A cheaper yuan makes Chinese exports more competitive, which helps offset the pain of higher tariffs. To Trump, this was “currency manipulation.” To traders, it was just another Tuesday. And China isn’t alone. Other countries facing heavy tariffs often consider letting their currencies slide just enough to stay attractive in global markets. Brazil, India and even Canada have all seen their currencies take a hit during tariff disputes. Sometimes it’s deliberate policy, sometimes it’s just nervous investors pulling money out; but the result is the same: forex markets light up with activity. Of course, Trump being Trump, he didn’t just complain about other countries playing with exchange rates. He also hinted (more than once) that the U.S. should weaken the dollar too. The idea was simple: if tariffs make U.S. goods more expensive abroad, then a weaker dollar could help American exporters stay more competitive. Whether or not Washington ever acts on this, the mere suggestion is enough to send forex traders scrambling. This is why tariffs and forex are joined at the hip. A tariff is never “just” a tax on imports, it’s also a trigger for central banks, currency interventions, and market psychology. In fact, some traders argue that every major trade war in history eventually becomes a currency war. After all, if you can’t win by raising prices, you try to win by lowering the value of your money. For traders, this means keeping one eye on tariffs and the other on central bank talking heads. Because the second tariffs bite, the currency chess game begins. Will China weaken the yuan further? Will the Fed intervene? Will smaller economies like South Africa or Vietnam let their currencies sink to stay competitive? In short: when tariffs show up, currency wars aren’t far behind. And for forex traders, that means even more volatility, more opportunity, and more caffeine. Tariffs may give politicians migraines and company CEOs sleepless nights, but for forex traders they’re just another part of the crazy game. The trick isn’t avoiding the chaos, it’s learning how to surf without getting wiped out. So, how do you navigate tariff turbulence without losing the shirt off your back shirt (or your trading account)? Let’s break it down. In other words: don’t panic when tariff headlines hit. Get curious, stay nimble, and remember that every tariff is just another chapter in the world’s longest-running financial soap opera. And if your stop-loss gets blown up by a sudden Trump tweet? Well, you’re not alone, half the trading world is right there with you. So where do Trump’s tariffs go from here? If history (and Truth Social) is any guide, the only predictable thing about Trump’s trade policy is its unpredictability. One day he’s threatening a 200% tariff on pharmaceuticals, the next he’s striking “the biggest deal ever made” with the EU. Traders who try to guess his next move often feel like they’re spinning a roulette wheel in your local Casino. There are a few possible scenarios: For forex traders, the real takeaway is this: whatever direction tariffs go, they’ll keep currencies busy. Volatility isn’t going away, and neither are the opportunities that come with it. So, big deal or big mess? Maybe a bit of both. But one thing’s for certain, as long as Trump is swinging his tariff hammer, forex traders won’t be complaining about being bored. If there’s one thing we’ve learned from Trump’s tariff adventures, it’s that nothing in global trade is ever simple, or quiet. Tariffs ripple through factories, boardrooms, and grocery stores, but for forex traders, the real action happens on your trading screens. Every new tariff announcement has the potential to shake currencies, move gold, rattle emerging markets, and test the patience of even the most seasoned traders. The U.S. dollar is as moody as ever. And the other currencies? They’re doing their own dance, twisting and turning as they respond to both economic realities and market speculation. Yet despite the chaos, there’s a silver lining for traders: opportunity. Volatility is the lifeblood of forex, and Trump’s tariffs provide it in spades. With careful risk management, a keen eye on news, and a sense of humour about the absurdity of it all, traders can navigate this turbulent landscape and even profit from it. Whether tariffs escalate, deals are struck, or markets continue to swing like a rollercoaster in a hurricane, one thing is certain: trading in the era of Trump’s tariffs is never dull. And for those who thrive on action, unpredictability, and the occasional eyebrow-raising tweet, it’s the ultimate playground. Remember: tariffs might raise prices, slow growth, and frustrate CEOs, but in the forex world, they’re just another chapter in the never-ending story of global markets. Strap in, stay alert, and maybe keep your sense of humour handy , because in this game, the tweets are fast, the tariffs are heavy, and the opportunities wait for no one.

You can read a chart, and yet every time a high-impact release lands, the market ignores your lines. Or you know that interest rates set the direction, but you cannot see how one CPI report becomes a move of 60 pips on GBP/USD. That gap between knowing the news exists and trading fundamental analysis with a plan is where most accounts leak money. This guide settles it. You will see what forex fundamental analysis actually means, which data and indicators deserve your attention, and how one real release travels from a statistics office page to a trade with an entry, a stop and a target, worked through in pips and pounds. Forex fundamental analysis reads economic data, interest rates and central bank policy to judge whether one currency should strengthen against another. Fundamentals own the direction of a trade; technicals own the entry level. This article walks you from reading a single release to building a complete trade setup around it. Want to follow the next release on a live chart while you read? Fundamental analysis is the practice of valuing an asset from the economic forces behind it rather than from its price history. In trading, that means judging what something should be worth by studying growth, inflation, interest rates and policy, then comparing that judgement with the price the market is currently offering. Forex fundamental analysis is the same discipline applied to currencies: it reads a country's economic data, its central bank's policy path and its political risk to judge whether that currency should strengthen or weaken against another. The subject is a national economy, never a company balance sheet. The forex twist sits in one word: relative. A currency never rises alone; it rises against something. Strong UK data means little if US data is stronger, so every conclusion you draw is a comparison between two economies. One caution on vocabulary: the fundamentals of forex trading sometimes means basic trading skills rather than economic analysis. If that is what you came for, start with How to start trading forex: a step-by-step guide for beginners; this article is about the economics. Read more: What are the ４ types of forex analysis? A complete beginner's guide The word fundamentals came to forex from the stock market, and the borrowed name confuses people. The method transfers; the inputs do not. A stock analyst asks whether a company is cheap. A currency trader asks which of two economies is getting stronger faster, and the answer arrives on a published schedule rather than in a quarterly report. That schedule is what makes forex fundamentals tradeable week by week. Fundamentals answer why price should move; technicals answer when and where to act on it. Most experienced traders refuse the either-or framing: fundamentals pick the direction, technicals pick the level. How the chart side of that partnership works is covered in the technical analysis guide below. Read more: Forex Technical Analysis: A Step-by-Step Beginner's Guide An exchange rate is the market's live vote on the relative strength of two economies, and every release of the forex fundamentals forces a recount. Ignore the vote and you are trading blind to the one force that can run through any support level on the chart. The drivers rank roughly in this order: policy above inflation, inflation above jobs, jobs above growth. The four analysis types you may see listed elsewhere are faces of this one table. Macroeconomic analysis reads the data rows. Monetary policy analysis reads the first row and treats every other row as an input to it. Capital flow analysis follows where the trade row sends money. Geopolitical analysis prices the last row, the one that ignores the calendar entirely. An indicator matters through its gap against the forecast, never through its absolute value. Inflation of 8.7% is terrible for an economy, yet if the market expected 8.4%, the trade is in the extra 0.3 points, because that gap forces rate expectations to move. The Bank Rate decision sits above every other indicator because it is the thing all the others are trying to predict. The market trades the gap between the announced decision plus its statement and what was priced in beforehand. A hawkish surprise typically bids sterling within seconds; a dovish one sells it. CPI rewrites rate expectations more directly than any other data point, which is why traders read the deviation from forecast first and core CPI second. Hot inflation drags the next rate decision towards a hike or delays a cut, and the currency moves the moment that maths changes. Employment is the other half of a central bank's mandate, and wage growth is the line inside the report that feeds the inflation path. A tight labour market with rising pay keeps rate cuts off the table, which supports the currency even when the headline jobs number looks dull. GDP measures momentum, but it looks backwards over a completed quarter, so the reaction is usually smaller than for inflation or jobs. It moves a pair when it flips the story, the way the UK's +0.6% first quarter of 2024 ended a technical recession and firmed sterling's floor. Retail sales give an early read on consumer momentum before it shows up in GDP. A large surprise nudges rate expectations by a few basis points, which usually translates into a modest same-day move rather than a trend change. Read more: The best forex indicators every trader should use in 2026 Every input above is free and primary. That matters for quality: on this exact topic, Google's second-ranked result is a Bank of England PDF, which tells you how heavily primary authority weighs here. You have one currency pair and one economic calendar in front of you. What do you actually do first? In my first years I did this backwards, reacting to headlines after the move. The order below is the one that finally worked. Start with the two central banks behind the pair, not with the data. Read the latest statement from each and write one line per bank: cutting, holding or hiking, and how confidently. You start here because every data point that follows only matters through what it does to these two stances. Rate expectations are the sun this whole system orbits. Open the calendar and pull out this week's high-impact events for your two currencies, noting the forecast and previous for each. Two or three events is normal; a decision week gives more. Low-impact releases are rarely worth sitting through, and treating everything as tradeable is how a calendar becomes noise. Here is a real one, the UK inflation print of 21 June 2023, read the way a trader reads it: The market does not trade 8.7; it trades the 0.3-point gap between actual and forecast, because that gap is new information about the rate path. Core CPI at 7.1%, the highest since 1992, made it worse. The BoE answered with a 50bp hike to 5.00% the following day. Small deviations inside the forecast's rounding error rarely move a pair; deviations that change what the central bank must do are the ones that run. Every release travels the same road. Flatten it once and you can read any of them: Data, central bank response, rate expectations, currency direction: that chain is the whole mechanism of fundamental analysis. Reverse each middle column for a miss. Condense everything into one executable sentence: which pair, which direction, and which event would invalidate the view. Mine from early last year read: long GBP/USD while UK services inflation keeps beating forecasts; invalid on a dovish BoE vote split. A bias is not an entry signal. Where you enter is the chart's job, and the pages linked above cover it. Reading data is analysis. A setup is what turns trading fundamental analysis into orders on a platform, and there are only two honest ways to time it. First, pair the view. You want a strong-policy currency against a weak-policy one, because rate gaps are what carry a trend for weeks. Through 2024 that logic kept traders long GBP/JPY: the BoE was cutting slowly from 5.25% while the Bank of Japan sat near zero, and the gap paid daily carry on top of direction. Second, choose your timing. Positioning before the event means you get the full move if you are right, and the full gap through your stop if you are wrong; no stop placement fully protects you at the second the number prints. Joining after the release means the entry costs more, often 20 to 40 pips worse than the pre-event price, but you are trading a fact instead of a forecast. In my own journal the after-the-print entries win more often; they just win less per trade. Take the BoE's 1 August 2024 decision, the first cut of the cycle, from 5.25% to 5.00% on a tight 5-4 vote. Markets had priced the cut as roughly a coin flip, so the announcement itself was tradeable new information: a cutting cycle beginning while the Fed had not yet moved. My journal entry from that week, as one worked example of the post-event method on a £5,000 account risking 2%: Bias: short GBP/USD, cut delivered and more priced to come. Waited for the post-decision bounce rather than chasing the first drop. Entry 1.2790 on the retest of the broken level, stop 1.2840 above the decision-hour high, 50 pips. Target 1.2690 at the next structure, 100 pips. Size £2 per pip: risk £100, reward £200, a clean 1:2. Notice what the fundamentals did and did not do there. They chose the pair, the direction and the conviction to hold through noise. The chart chose the entry at 1.2790, the stop and the target. Neither discipline could have produced that trade alone. Event traders eat the gap in the seconds after a print. Swing traders eat the repricing of rate expectations over days. Position traders eat the policy cycle itself over months. I trade the middle layer: the data tells me which side of GBP/USD to be on for the next fortnight, and the chart tells me where. These three are the reason to pair fundamentals with technicals, never the reason to abandon them. My own tuition fee: on that 21 June 2023 CPI morning I was short GBP/USD off a clean resistance fade, no calendar check. The 8.7% print spiked cable through my 30-pip stop and the fill added 5 pips of slippage; a planned £45 loss left as £53. The chart was fine. The trade was blind. Fundamental analysis in forex is the method of reading economic data, interest rates and central bank policy to judge the relative strength of two currencies. It answers the direction question: which currency should be bought against which. Fundamental analysis in trading means valuing an asset from the economic forces behind it, then trading the gap between that value and the current price. A trader who buys a currency because its central bank is hiking while the other side is cutting is doing exactly this. Pin down both central banks' stance, pick the week's high-impact events, read each release as the gap between actual and forecast, trace that gap to rate expectations, and write the conclusion down as one directional bias. The five-step section above walks each stage. The 5-3-1 rule tells a new trader to focus on 5 currency pairs, 3 strategies and 1 trading session. It is a discipline tool rather than an analysis method, and it pairs well with fundamentals: fewer pairs means fewer central banks to genuinely understand. Mathematically yes, but daily profit scales with capital and risk: $1,000 a day on a small account requires position sizes that eventually destroy it. Set risk per trade first and let the daily number be an output, not a target. It depends on your holding period: the shorter the trade, the more the chart matters, and the longer the hold, the more the economics matters. Most experienced traders let fundamentals set the direction and technicals set the entry rather than picking a side. Forex fundamental analysis comes down to one repeated act: reading the gap between what the data did and what the market expected, tracing that gap to rate expectations, and turning it into a currency direction. It hands you the why and the which way; the chart still owns the where. Traders who respect that split stop being surprised by their own calendar. Start small this week: open next week's economic calendar on a demo account, pick one high-impact UK or US event, write your bias before the print, and compare it with what the pair actually did. Related concepts: The RADEX MARKETS editorial team consists of seasoned financial professionals and market observers. Dedicated to delivering objective market summaries, macroeconomic insights, and educational content, the team strives to keep traders well-informed in a fast-paced financial environment. Reviewed by RADEX MARKETS Risk Warning: Trading derivatives and leveraged products carries a high level of risk, including the risk of losing substantially more than your initial investment.

And there we have it. Gold has officially crossed $4,000 for the first time in history, after hitting $3,000 just seven short months ago. The question asks itself: how long until the precious metal adds another $1k to its tally? The current macroeconomic environment remains good for gold. The Fed will continue to lower rates on the Dollar, forcing market participants to seek returns elsewhere, while investors around the world flock to safe-haven assets. Uncertainty persists around a number of geographic markers, including France, the Middle East and Ukraine, while central banks around the world continue to shun treasuries in favour of stockpiling more precious metals. Gold ETFs also reported record inflows in the third quarter of the year and trading volumes are exploding across the board. Even industrial demand is playing its part, although more so in silver, platinum and palladium than gold. Speaking of silver, the white metal remains perilously close to striking a record high of its own, but for the time being everyone is understandably focused on gold. We finally have something to talk about in currency markets. The Dollar has regained some measure of strength in recent days and the DXY is now fast approaching 99. The situation unfolding in France has resulted in a loss of confidence in the Euro due to budget concerns. With the latest resignation of Sebastien Lecornu, the French parliament has now gone through three Prime Ministers in less than a year, and a total of seven during Macron’s combined presidencies. The Euro is down to $1.162 as of this morning. In Japan, the recent leadership victory of Sanae Takaichi has prompted a significant flight out of the Yen. The new Prime Minister is expected to engage in much more aggressive economic policies in a bid to stimulate the Japanese economy and has been critical of the Bank of Japan’s recent rate hikes. The prospect of slower rate hikes has punished the Yen, leading to a 3% loss against the Dollar so far this week and driving USDJPY past 152 this morning. #Gold #Euro

Cryptocurrencies have gone from being a niche obsession of tech geeks and libertarians to a mainstream asset class, that even your neighbour Dave brags about owning (usually right before the market tanks). From Bitcoin pizza purchases to billion-dollar funds, the digital asset rollercoaster shows no signs of slowing down. But here’s where things get interesting: not everyone buys or trades crypto the same way. Some people use crypto exchanges, those digital marketplaces where you can swap your hard-earned dollars for Bitcoin, Ethereum, or a coin with a name that sounds like a Pokémon character. Others, however, are quietly doing something different: they’re trading crypto through their good old forex broker. Wait, what? The same broker you use to trade EUR/USD or GBP/JPY also lets you trade Bitcoin? Yes. In fact, many forex brokers now offer crypto trading right alongside currencies, commodities, and indices. And for some traders, this feels as natural as ordering fries with your burger. But here’s the million-dollar (or one-Bitcoin) question: why would anyone choose to trade crypto through a forex broker instead of a crypto exchange? Isn’t that like buying sushi from a petrol station? Maybe… but as it turns out, there are some pretty solid reasons people do it. Of course, there are also some major downsides, which we’ll explore later. So, grab your digital wallet (or at least your sense of humour), because in this article we’re going to explore: By the end, you’ll know exactly whether trading Bitcoin via your forex broker is a stroke of genius, or the financial equivalent of paying extra for bottled water when the tap’s just fine. Before we start throwing shade at either side, let’s get clear on what we’re actually comparing. A forex broker is like your financial middleman, the person who makes it possible for you to buy and sell currencies, and increasingly, other instruments, without having to fly to Wall Street and start waving your hands around in a pit full of sweaty traders. Brokers usually give you access to slick platforms like MetaTrader 4 (MT4) or MetaTrader 5 (MT5), where you can click, drag, and chart your way to trading glory (or financial ruin, depending on how your last gold trade went). They make money mostly from spreads, commissions, and sometimes sneaky overnight financing fees. But the key point? Forex brokers are usually the adult in the room, financial authorities that make sure the broker doesn’t just run off with your cash. Crypto exchanges, on the other hand, are like bustling digital bazaars where people swap Bitcoin, Ethereum, and thousands of other coins you’ve probably never heard of. Some exchanges are highly professional (think Coinbase or Binance), while others look like they were built in a spare room above a Kebab shop in a rundown area of town way back in 2009 and they still haven’t updated their customer support line. Here, you are often trading “real” crypto. You buy it, you own it, and if you want, you can transfer it to a private wallet where you hold the keys (and nervously triple check you didn’t send your life savings to the wrong address). Exchanges aren’t always regulated in the same way brokers are. Some have licenses, others are still trying to figure out how to explain themselves to governments. And of course, some have collapsed spectacularly (cough FTX cough), reminding traders that “not your keys, not your coins” is more than just a catchy slogan. What is the overlap? Both let you trade cryptocurrencies. Both give you platforms to click “buy” and “sell” with frightening ease. But the philosophy is different: In short, forex brokers are like the controlled environment of a gym treadmill, while crypto exchanges are more like trail running in the wilderness. One is predictable and regulated; the other has more freedom, but you might twist your ankle. If you’re wondering why someone would trade Bitcoin through a forex broker when shiny crypto exchanges are a click away, don’t worry, you’re not alone. But as with most things in finance (and life), convenience and comfort often win out. Let’s explore the main reasons traders cosy up to their forex brokers for crypto action. Imagine logging into one platform and being able to trade EUR/USD, gold, the WS30, and Bitcoin, all without juggling multiple logins or trying to remember which two-factor authentication app you used. That’s the magic of forex brokers. Everything’s under one roof. For traders who already spend their days glued to MT4 or MT5, adding a Bitcoin chart to the mix feels natural. Why learn a brand-new exchange interface when you can just slap another chart on to your screen? Let’s face it: most crypto exchanges have interfaces that feel like you’re piloting a spaceship. Order books, charts, liquidity depth, and a hundred different order types, it’s enough to make a newbie’s head spin, not to mention an old sweat like me! Forex brokers, on the other hand, stick to what traders already know. MetaTrader might not win awards for beauty, but it’s simple, reliable, and lets you run all your favourite EAs (Expert Advisors) while pretending you’re not over-leveraging again. This is a big one. Most forex brokers let you trade crypto CFDs with leverage, sometimes up to 1:10 or 1:20. That means you can control a much larger position than your actual deposit would normally allow. For some traders, the idea of wiring money to an offshore crypto exchange feels about as safe as sending your wallet to a stranger on Instagram. Forex brokers, at least the trusted ones, have to follow strict rules about client funds and reporting. That extra layer of oversight can give traders peace of mind. Sure, not every forex broker is squeaky clean, but compared to the Wild West of unregulated exchanges, it feels a bit like moving from a dodgy back street casino into a proper Las Vegas venue. The house still wins most of the time, but at least the drinks are free. If you’ve been trading forex for years, switching to crypto on your broker’s platform doesn’t require you to learn anything new. It’s like ordering your usual coffee from your favourite café; no need to explain yourself, no surprises, it just feels familiar and right. For traders who just want exposure to Bitcoin or Ethereum without diving into the deep end of blockchain technology, forex brokers are the easy button. Of course, trading crypto through your forex broker isn’t all sunshine and Lamborghinis. In fact, for every shiny perk, there’s usually a catch hiding in the small print. Let’s dig into the not-so-glamorous side. Most forex brokers only bother listing the “A-list celebrities” of crypto, Bitcoin, Ethereum, maybe Litecoin if they’re feeling generous. Don’t expect to find meme coins, obscure tokens, or that weird project your mate in your local bar swears will be “the next big thing.” If you’re the type who likes browsing the full crypto buffet with thousands of coins to choose from, a forex broker will feel more like a sad hotel breakfast. On exchanges, fees are usually clear and upfront: a small percentage per trade. With forex brokers, the cost often hides inside the spread (the difference between the buy and sell price). Add to that the potential overnight financing charges (a.k.a. “swap fees”), and suddenly your “cheap” trade isn’t looking so cheap. Brokers know you’re here for convenience, and convenience rarely comes free. Here’s the biggie: in most cases, when you trade crypto with a forex broker, you’re not actually buying Bitcoin. You’re trading CFDs (Contracts for Difference) or another type of derivative. That means you’re just speculating on the price, not owning the underlying asset. So, forget about transferring your coins to a private wallet, staking them in decentralized finance, or bragging about “hodling” (long-term investment strategy) through the next bull run. With a forex broker, you can’t send Bitcoin to your hardware wallet, because you don’t actually own any. It’s like betting on horse racing without ever seeing the horse. On a crypto exchange, if you want to move your coins, you can send them directly to your wallet. With a forex broker? Nope. You deposit in fiat, you trade in fiat, and you withdraw in fiat, although many brokers are looking to add crypto withdrawals in the future. If your dream was to stack sats and live off crypto someday, you’ll be disappointed. Forex brokers keep things old-school: dollars, euros, pounds. Digital coins stay on the screen only, for the moment. Planning to hold Bitcoin for months at your forex broker? Brace yourself. Many brokers charge daily overnight fees for holding leveraged positions. Over time, these fees can quietly chew through your account like termites in wooden furniture. Crypto purists laugh at this, since on an exchange you can buy and hold Bitcoin for years without paying a cent in “overnight financing.” But with a broker, it’s more like paying rent to keep your coins parked there. Here’s the million-dollar question (or 9-Bitcoin question, depending on which way the market’s swinging): are crypto prices the same whether you trade on a forex broker’s platform or a crypto exchange? The short answer: not quite. Let’s explore why this is the case. On a crypto exchange, prices come straight from the order book, a live record of buy and sell orders placed by real people (and lots of bots pretending to be real people). The price you see is the result of supply and demand in that particular marketplace. More buyers push the price up; more sellers push it down. Pretty simple. Liquidity is key here. The bigger the exchange, the deeper the liquidity pool, and the closer the price will track the global market average. That’s why the big names like Binance or Coinbase usually stay in line with each other, while smaller exchanges might look a bit… off. Forex brokers don’t usually have order books for crypto. Instead, they get their prices from liquidity providers, essentially, big banks, market makers, or other exchanges. The broker takes this feed, adds a spread (their cut), and serves it up to you on MT4, MT5, or whatever platform you’re using. While prices on a forex broker’s platform generally follow the broader market, they’re not identical to exchange prices. Think of it like buying a Coke at the airport: it’s still Coke, but you’re paying airport prices. On top of that, brokers often bake wider spreads into their quotes. For example, Bitcoin might be $50,000 on Binance but show up as $50,100 / $50,300 on your broker’s platform. That $200 gap is your cost of convenience. There’s also slippage, the difference between the price you click on and the price you actually get. Fast-moving crypto markets love to play this game, and spreads plus slippage can add up to a nasty surprise if you’re not careful. At this point, the clever traders might be thinking: “Aha! I’ll just buy on the exchange at $50,000 and sell on my broker at $50,200, free money right!” Unfortunately, brokers have already thought of that, and the mechanics of arbitrage between a CFD platform and a real exchange are messy (not to mention, brokers tend to close loopholes faster than you can say ‘risk-free profit’). Prices on forex brokers and crypto exchanges are usually similar but not identical. For long-term traders, the small differences may not matter much. But for short-term scalpers and day traders, those extra spreads and tiny gaps can be costly. Not all traders are created equal. Some like fast-paced scalping, some like long-term investing, and some just like to tell everyone at parties they “trade crypto” without ever opening a chart. So, who actually benefits from trading through a forex broker, and who’s better off sticking to exchanges? For traders who live on 5-minute charts and survive on coffee and adrenaline, forex brokers have a few perks: But there’s a catch: wide spreads and slippage can quickly eat into the razor-thin profits scalpers chase. It’s like running a marathon while someone keeps moving the finish line a few steps further. If your idea of trading is buying Bitcoin and forgetting about it until the next halving cycle, a forex broker is basically useless to you. Why? Exchanges (or better yet, private wallets) are the clear winners for hodlers. Brokers are for speculating, not storing. Some traders don’t trust crypto exchanges after seeing headlines like “Major Exchange Collapses, Billions Lost”. For them, a regulated forex broker feels safer. At least there’s someone to complain to if things go south, even if that someone is a regulator who politely tells you, “We’re looking into it.” If you’re the type who likes dabbling in meme coins, DeFi tokens, or anything Elon Musk tweets about, forex brokers will disappoint. You’ll find Bitcoin, Ethereum, maybe Ripple if you’re lucky, but that’s it. Exchanges win hands-down here, offering thousands of tradable assets, from serious projects to coins that sound suspiciously like recipe ingredients. Then there’s the smart middle ground: traders who use both. They trade short-term crypto moves on their forex broker (for the convenience and leverage) but buy and hold real crypto assets on exchanges or private wallets. Question: - Should you trade cryptocurrencies through your forex broker or stick with a dedicated crypto exchange? The answer, like most things in trading, is, it depends: - Forex brokers bring convenience, familiarity, leverage, and regulation to the table. If you’re already trading forex, adding Bitcoin or Ethereum into the mix on the same platform is as easy as ordering dessert after dinner, no need to change restaurants. For short-term traders who just want to speculate on price moves, brokers can be a comfortable, streamlined choice. But the downsides are hard to ignore. Limited coin selection, higher spreads, hidden fees, and, most importantly, the fact that you don’t actually own any crypto. If your dream is to hodl coins, keeping them long-term, transfer them to a cold wallet, or dive into the weird and wonderful world of altcoins and blockchains, forex brokers cannot provide you with this. As for prices? They’re usually close enough between brokers and exchanges to not cause chaos, but small differences (plus those wider spreads) can nibble at your profits faster than you’d like. Arbitrage fantasies aside, the “cheap and cheerful” trade is rarely as cheap as it looks. In the end, it comes down to your style. The key is knowing what you’re really getting into. Trading crypto through a forex broker isn’t “wrong”, it’s just a different flavour of trading. Some prefer vanilla, some prefer Caramel Chew Chew. As long as you know what’s in the tub before you dive in, you won’t get any nasty surprises. Personally, being old school, I like the Forex broker angle, it is convenient and simple. Crypto trading is just another asset that I can make money from, and I don’t have to deal in complicated wallet numbers and blockchains. If the price of Bitcoin tanks I am out of the trade and not worrying that I am going to lose my pants if it keeps dropping as I don’t actually own anything.