After months of delays, yesterday the US Senate voted in favour of appointing Kevin Warsh to the board of the Federal Reserve. Warsh will replace Stephen Miran, who had stepped in to fill the seat of former Governor Adriana Kugler, who is currently facing an ongoing ethics investigation. The vote secured a full 14-year term for Warsh and paves the way for a second, separate vote to appoint the incoming governor as Fed Chairman, which could go ahead later today. After 8 years at the helm, Jerome Powell’s chairmanship will officially end on Friday the 15th. Markets are decidedly undecided regarding the next series of interest rate decisions, although most investors are largely expecting continued rate holds over the coming months. Yesterday’s CPI figures came in hotter than expected, leading to a muted reaction in US stock markets. PPI figures will be released in a few hours, completing the picture. President Trump is set to arrive in China later today to meet with President Xi as part of a three-day visit covering trade, business, Iran and Taiwan.
Silver surprised everyone with a 7% rally on Monday and has investors asking how much more gas the white metal has in the tank. Supply and demand dynamics are rapidly coming back into play, with analysts expecting deficits over the coming months and years. Silver is mainly the by-product of wider base metal mining, which has not expanded enough to meet demand. Operational disruptions, energy constraints and geopolitical uncertainty have all kept a lid on base metal output and supplies have tightened as a result. The shortfall in silver production has been particularly bad, with some surveys suggesting that silver demand has outpaced supply for the last six consecutive years. As focus shifts away from the immediate problem of Iran, attention will inevitably turn back to fundamental market forces, which point to a squeeze in silver supplies. Both the London and New York vaults have experienced massive inventory drains in recent months, and much of that is tied up in ETFs and other instruments, further exacerbating the situation. Silver is currently hovering around $87 per ounce at the time of writing.
Further up the periodic table, copper is also undergoing a dramatic surge in price. Much like silver, copper is vital to a large number of industrial processes and demand is expected to rise over the years to come. Governments around the world are aware of this and have begun hoarding vast amounts of the metal as strategic reserves, particularly in the United States and China. Copper prices are currently registering record highs of $6.60 per pound, or around $14,000 per tonne.
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