FOREX AKTUALITY

Markets have been relatively mellow so far this week, as the US and Iran appear to be making progress on reaching an agreement to end the ongoing conflict. The blockade remains in place but Secretary of State Marco Rubio declared yesterday that the main military operation against Iran was over. Oil prices remain elevated, with Brent Crude trading for $108 and WTI hovering around $100 per barrel. The lull in hostilities has buoyed precious metals, lifting gold to $4,650 this morning while silver rose confidently above $75 per ounce. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite both closed at record highs yesterday, following which Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) reported its first quarter results, beating expectations and sending the stock soaring in aftermarket trading. Crypto markets are suddenly more optimistic than they have been in months. The recent compromise in the wording of the Clarity Act would allow crypto platforms to offer rewards to customers based on activity and network usage, but would not permit completely passive forms of yield comparable to interest on bank deposits. For months, representatives from the banking sector have fought against any form of stablecoin reward, but their voices may now be falling on deaf ears. Senators Tillis and Alsobrooks, from the Senate Banking Committee, issued a joint statement yesterday that clarified the matter, adding “some in the banking industry may not want either of these things to happen, and we respectfully agree to disagree”. The fight might not be over just yet however, with a number of bank trade groups stepping forward on Monday to say that the recent verdict fell short of their desired outcome. On the other side of the debate, Coinbase CPO Faryar Shirzad expressed satisfaction, claiming that crypto companies “protected what matters — the ability for Americans to earn rewards, based on real usage of crypto platforms and networks”. Bitcoin has risen steadily so far this week, climbing back above $81,000 for the first time since January. Cryptocurrencies as a whole are in the red for the year, but the shift in sentiment surrounding the Clarity Act is noteworthy. After months of disappointing price action and boredom, traders are keen for any catalyst to jolt crypto markets back into action. #AMD #BITCOIN #IRAN

The relationship between stock markets and forex is based on global capital flows and investor sentiment. When investors move money into or out of equities, currencies react almost immediately. In simple terms: This is why experienced traders don’t look at forex in isolation; they watch equities, bonds, and macro data together. If you’re only watching charts without understanding the bigger picture, you’re effectively trading with one eye closed. At its core, forex is not just about currencies, it’s about global money movement, and stock markets are one of the biggest drivers of that movement. The term “market correlation” refers to how two financial markets move in relation to each other. In forex trading, stock markets influence currencies through three key mechanisms. When investors buy stocks in a country, they must first convert their money into that country’s currency. For example: This creates demand for the currency, pushing its value higher. Now flip the scenario: This is why forex often moves before or during stock market shifts - not after. Risk sentiment is the overall mood of the market: Currencies behave differently depending on this mood. This is one of the most important concepts in forex trading - and one that beginners often underestimate. Stock markets move based on expectations of: These same factors also drive forex markets. For example: However, it’s rarely that simple (we’ll get to that later). When stock markets are rising, it usually signals: In trading terms, this is known as a risk-on environment. Currencies That Tend to Rise: These are often referred to as “risk currencies” because they perform well when investors are willing to take risks. Currencies That Tend to Fall: These are known as safe haven currencies, which investors typically avoid during optimistic periods. When stocks are rising: This is known as the carry trade, and it plays a major role in forex movements during bullish stock markets. After the global financial crisis: Forex reaction: This is a classic example of stocks rising - risk currencies strengthening - safe havens weakening. Now let’s talk about the part traders really care about—because this is where the biggest moves happen. A stock market crash triggers: This leads to what’s known as: Flight to safety (or flight to quality) Safe Haven Currencies Surge: Risk Currencies Collapse: During a crash: Here’s a key insight many beginners miss: During a crash, markets don’t just chase safety - they chase liquidity. And the most liquid currency in the world is the US Dollar. Let’s ground this in reality with real-world events. This is the textbook example. What happened: Forex reaction: Key takeaway: When stocks crash hard, forex reacts even harder. What happened: Forex reaction: Interestingly: This reinforced the idea that USD is the ultimate safe haven in global crises. What happened: Forex reaction: This shows that interest rates can amplify stock–forex relationships. Risk-on and risk-off are the backbone of this entire topic. Forex behaviour: Forex behaviour: Some pairs are particularly sensitive to stock market movements. This pair is one of the best indicators of risk sentiment. Now let’s turn this into something tradable. Trade idea: Stock market opens often drive forex volatility. Watch how equities behave in the first hour—this often sets the tone for forex. Before entering a trade: If both align - higher probability trade. During major selloffs: Opportunities: But also, higher risk - this is not for beginners. Here’s where many traders get caught out. The relationship between stocks and forex is not always consistent. You might see: This can happen if: This is why blindly following correlations is dangerous. Let’s bring this forward. With algorithmic trading and AI: In global crises: Geopolitical tensions, inflation shocks, and rate changes will continue to create: Traders who understand: Will have a significant advantage. If there’s one takeaway from this entire guide, it’s this: Stock markets show confidence. Forex markets show capital flow. When stocks rise: When stocks fall: And if you learn to read both together? You move from reacting to markets… to anticipating them. As I write this article the bank of England is warning about the stock markets being too high and expects stock markets around the world to fall as share prices do not reflect the many risks facing the global economy. The language is notable, they did not say they expect a stock market crash, but they expect a pullback on the stock market, food for thought. Most beginner traders watch only forex charts. Professional traders watch: Because forex isn’t just a market; it’s the result of everything else happening in the global economy.

As of this morning, Project Freedom is now in effect in the waters of the Persian Gulf. Late last night, President Trump announced new measures to ensure the safety of ships transiting through the Strait of Hormuz, which include escorting neutral ships in and out of the strategic passage. Many ships have been left stranded as a result of the ongoing hostilities and the recent announcement seeks to address the matter. The operation will run parallel to the US naval blockade already in place and, according to Central Command, will include over 100 sea and land-based aircraft, unmanned platforms and 15 thousand service members. Financial markets have begrudgingly awarded a nod of approval so far, with crude oil prices falling early in the Asian session. The Brent Crude benchmark is currently oscillating around $108 per barrel, while WTI contracts are trading for around $101 after seeing lows of $99 per barrel earlier in the day. Asian stock markets were cautiously optimistic as trading got underway, with South Korean and Taiwanese indices hitting record highs, while the Nikkei 225 remains closed due to a national holiday. Last week was a huge one for quarterly earnings, with five of the magnificent seven reporting their latest financial wins and losses. While results were generally strong across the board, the ensuing fallout in stock performance tells a different story. Google was the uncontested winner, with shares in Alphabet (GOOG) surging 10% last Thursday, crowning the company’s best month in decades. Alphabet rose 33% in April, adding over a trillion dollars to its market capitalisation, and is the best performer of the year among the tech giant roster. Apple (AAPL) also saw a decent rally last Friday, following the publication of its own report card, raising 3.2% by the daily close. On the other end of the spectrum, Microsoft (MSFT) and META saw dismal losses, the former shedding 3.9% and the latter collapsing 8.6% last Thursday. The colossal flows of capital flooding into AI projects have not spooked markets just yet, but the connection between spending and revenue is beginning to play on the minds of many investors, particularly when looking at Meta’s spending habits. Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite indices closed out the week at record highs, as technology stocks continue to dominate market movements. A significant breakthrough occurred late last week in the cryptocurrency sphere. For months, there has been a raging debate between crypto companies and US banks regarding the former’s ability to provide yield on deposits. Companies such as Coinbase currently offer their users rewards for holding stablecoins but this is something that traditional banks have challenged. Last Friday, Senators Thom Tillis and Angela Alsobrooks appeared to have negotiated a compromise, the gist of which would be to ban yield on stablecoin deposits but allow companies to pay out rewards based on platform or network activity. A number of crypto companies already implement such practices, for example by giving traders the option to pay reduced fees via a token native to the exchange. The contention surrounding stablecoin yield has held up the Clarity Act for months, but the latest concession may finally remove the final roadblock, potentially paving the way for the act to be written into law, possibly as early as this month. The Tokyo Stock Exchange is currently enjoying an extended break due to Japan’s Golden Week, which will not see markets reopen until Thursday. May Day in China will likewise see Chinese exchanges shuttered until Wednesday, while the London Stock Exchange will also remain closed today, leaving markets with very little liquidity this morning. Tomorrow morning the Reserve Bank of Australia is expected yet again to raise rates on the Aussie dollar, this time to 4.35%. US home sales and the ISM services PMI follow later in the day, along with the latest JOLT survey. The mid-week has very little to offer, but Friday will deliver April non-farm payrolls, with expectations sitting at 73k new jobs. The earnings calendar is much quieter this week, with the exception of Palantir (PLTR) on Monday and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) on Tuesday. For now, gazes are once again returning to the Middle East. #PROJECTFREEDOM #CLARITY #GOOG

No one saw this one coming. Yesterday morning, state media announced that the United Arab Emirates will withdraw from the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries as early as Friday. By the same token, the nation will likewise abandon its seat at OPEC+. Abu Dhabi, one of the emirates in question, has been a member of OPEC since 1967, meaning its membership within the oil cartel predates the unification of the UAE as we know it. The Emirates have long been a major producer of oil, locally and globally, and now account for around 3 million barrels per day. The entire reason for the existence of OPEC is to allow the organisation to limit the production quotas of its member states in order to control the floor on crude oil prices. The cartel has seen its influence wane somewhat in recent years due to the massive surge in production in the United States, but the latest move marks a much more abrupt decline in OPEC’s power and reach. The UAE is recognised as having significant spare capacity and will now most likely increase its production of oil moving forward, possibly doubling its current output with the next two years. The timing of the move is no accident, with the conflict in Iran being the obvious major catalyst. The UAE has criticised other local powers for offering very little resistance to Iran’s drone and missile strikes over the last two months and the country’s relationship with Saudi Arabia has soured in recent times. The Emirates have expressed an openness to lower oil prices, which coincides with America’s, and particularly President Trump’s stance on such matters. Brent Crude contracts are currently trading for $111 per barrel while WTI is hovering around the $99 mark. Confidence surrounding OpenAI continued to waver yesterday after the company missed sales and user targets, according to a report from the Wall Street Journal. The startup is also facing an ongoing lawsuit by Elon Musk, who has accused OpenAI of abandoning its original nonprofit mission and seeks the removal of CEO Sam Altman from the company’s board. Shares in Oracle (ORCL), a partner of OpenAI, fell 4% yesterday as markets digested the report. The development is perhaps not the best timed, arriving just ahead of quarterly earnings from major tech companies later today, including Alphabet (GOOG), Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN) and META. The Nasdaq Composite index shed 0.9% on Tuesday, while the S&P 500 fared slightly better with a 0.5% loss and the Dow Jones closed close to flat on the day. Questions are once again being asked about a potential bubble in the artificial intelligence sector, but for now the money remains on the table. #OPEC #UAE #OPENAI

Bitcoin is supposed to be a “risk asset.” In plain English, that means when the world gets messy, wars, panic, uncertainty, it should wobble, drop, or at the very least throw a bit of a tantrum. And yet, here we are. While geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have shaken traditional markets, Bitcoin has been… oddly calm. Not completely unbothered, but certainly not reacting in the dramatic, headline-driven way many traders expected. In fact, Bitcoin recently pushed above $78,000, hitting a two-month high and holding those gains surprisingly well. Meanwhile, equities, which usually like to pretend they’re more “mature”, have shown more nerves. So naturally, traders are asking: Has Bitcoin finally grown up… or is something else going on behind the scenes? Bitcoin isn’t ignoring geopolitics, it’s just being influenced by bigger forces right now. Those forces include: In other words, this isn’t Bitcoin suddenly becoming a “safe haven.” Its Bitcoin being pulled in a different direction, by money, structure, and adoption. And as always in trading: Liquidity tends to shout louder than the headlines suggest. This isn’t just an interesting headline; it’s a shift in how markets behave. If Bitcoin: Then traders need to rethink how they approach it. Because relying on: “War = sell risk assets” …might not cut it anymore. Before we crown Bitcoin as the unbothered king of chaos, let’s keep things grounded. Historically, Bitcoin has absolutely reacted to geopolitical events. For example, during the April 2024 Iranian strikes on Israel, BTC saw a sharp dip as risk sentiment collapsed. And during extreme fear phases, Bitcoin often correlates with equities, behaving like a classic risk asset rather than a hedge. So, no, it hasn’t suddenly become immune. But this time is different. Not because geopolitics don’t matter… …but because something else matters more right now. Timing. Bitcoin had already: So, when the Middle East conflict escalated, the market wasn’t overheated, it was already reset. That changes everything. Because instead of panic selling: Think of it like this: You can’t trigger a stampede… if most of the crowd has already left. Now we get into the real drivers, the stuff that actually moves markets (and doesn’t just make headlines): Next up: Is Bitcoin becoming immune to geopolitics, or is that just trader wishful thinking? Then we break down the 3 real forces driving BTC right now: The idea that Bitcoin is becoming “immune” to geopolitics sounds great especially if you’re holding a long position and enjoying the ride. But let’s not get carried away. Bitcoin is not immune to geopolitics. It never has been, and (for now at least) it probably isn’t about to become some zen-like asset that ignores global chaos entirely. What is changing, however, is how strongly and how consistently it reacts. And that’s where things get interesting. In traditional market behaviour: Bitcoin, historically, has sat awkwardly in the middle. Sometimes it behaves like: Other times, traders hope it behaves like: Spoiler alert: It usually behaves like a risk asset when it matters most. During major shocks, like the April 2024 Iranian strikes on Israel, Bitcoin sold off alongside equities as fear spiked across global markets. So, the expectation going into the latest Middle East tensions was simple: Bitcoin should drop. But it didn’t. Not meaningfully, anyway. Because geopolitics wasn’t the dominant narrative in the market. Right now, Bitcoin is being driven more by: In other words, the market is focused on: “Where is the money flowing?” …not just: “What’s happening in the news?” And this is a subtle but important shift. Here’s where many traders get caught out. They assume: Big news = big move But markets don’t work like that. Markets move based on: If a geopolitical event is: Right now, Bitcoin ticks all three boxes. Which is why, despite a major conflict, price action has remained relatively stable. This is the million-dollar (or rather, $78,000) question. Bitcoin is often compared to Gold, especially during times of uncertainty. The narrative goes something like: “Gold protects wealth… Bitcoin is just the digital version.” Nice theory. Slight problem. Bitcoin is still: Gold, on the other hand, has: So, while Bitcoin occasionally behaves like gold… …it hasn’t earned that badge just yet. Bitcoin is evolving, not into a safe haven, but into something arguably more important: A macro liquidity asset That means it responds more to: …than to short-term geopolitical noise. And this aligns Bitcoin more closely with: But with one key twist: It’s becoming structurally stronger than it used to be. Here’s the takeaway most traders miss: Bitcoin isn’t ignoring the war because it’s “safe.” It’s holding up because: This creates a situation where: Negative news doesn’t cause the same panic it used to. And that’s often how bottoms form. Not with a dramatic reversal… …but with boring resilience when things should be falling apart. Now we get into the real engine behind Bitcoin’s behaviour, and this is where things start to click. Next section: The Real Drivers Behind Bitcoin’s Strength We’ll break down: If geopolitics isn’t pushing Bitcoin around the way traders expected, then the obvious question is: What is driving the price? The answer is less dramatic than war headlines… but far more important. Right now, Bitcoin is being supported by a perfect storm of three major forces: Individually, each of these can move markets. Together? They can completely override short-term fear. Here’s a hard truth many traders learn the painful way: Markets don’t move on what’s happening, they move on where the money is going. You can have: …but if capital is flowing into an asset, price can still go up. And right now: Capital is flowing into Bitcoin. Not aggressively parabolic (yet)… but steadily enough to absorb selling pressure. Institutional demand refers to large-scale investment from: Unlike retail traders, these players: And lately… they’ve been buying. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have changed the game. Since March, Bitcoin has seen over $3 billion in inflows into ETF products, reversing earlier outflows and signalling renewed confidence. Major players like BlackRock have helped legitimise Bitcoin as an investable asset class, making it easier for traditional capital to enter the market. This matters because: In short: Bitcoin is no longer just a retail playground. On the corporate side, one name stands out: MicroStrategy (now rebranded as Strategy) Despite sitting on billions in unrealised losses earlier this year, the company has continued aggressively accumulating Bitcoin, pushing its holdings above 800,000 BTC. Yes, you read that correctly. They didn’t panic. They didn’t reduce exposure. They doubled down. And whether you think that’s genius or madness… …it sends a very clear signal to the market: “We are not worried about short-term volatility.” That kind of conviction tends to: Institutional and corporate buyers don’t react like retail traders. They’re not: Instead, they’re: So, when geopolitical fear hits… There’s now a layer of demand that simply wasn’t there in previous cycles. Liquidity refers to how much money is available and flowing through the system. And in modern markets, liquidity often matters more than fundamentals. When liquidity rises: When liquidity dries up: Bitcoin has historically shown a strong relationship with: Global M2 money supply (a broad measure of money circulating in the economy) When global liquidity expands: And right now? Liquidity is rising again. The United States Department of the Treasury is expected to conduct massive debt buybacks, injecting liquidity back into the system. This effectively: At the same time, broader global liquidity trends are also expanding. So, while headlines scream: “War! Uncertainty! Panic!” The underlying system is quietly saying: “Here’s more money, go invest it.” Liquidity doesn’t care about fear. It doesn’t read headlines. It doesn’t watch the news. It simply flows. And when there’s enough of it: That’s exactly what we’re seeing with Bitcoin right now. For years, crypto adoption has mostly been: But situations like geopolitical conflict can accelerate real use cases. And this is where things get interesting. Reports suggest that Iran may require certain shipping transactions to be settled in cryptocurrency, including Bitcoin, for oil tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz. This is significant because: In short: This isn’t theory, it’s potential real-world usage. If even a fraction of this becomes reality: Countries under financial pressure often: And that creates a new type of buyer: Not traders… but users Put all three drivers together: …and you get something powerful: A market that is less fragile, more supported, and harder to shake. This doesn’t mean Bitcoin won’t fall again (it absolutely will at some point). But it does mean: It’s becoming more structurally resilient. Now we move into the part traders really care about: Technical Analysis: Is Bitcoin Actually Bottoming Out? We’ll break down: Technical analysis is where we stop debating headlines and start looking at what actually matters: Price action. And right now, Bitcoin is showing early signs of something traders pay very close attention to: A potential bottoming structure Not a guaranteed reversal (let’s not get ahead of ourselves), but definitely a shift worth noting. Bitcoin is currently trading near a major technical level: 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement Level This level, often called the “golden ratio”, is widely used by traders to identify potential reversal zones. In this case: BTC is now testing this exact region. The 61.8% retracement isn’t just a random line on a chart. It represents: If Bitcoin: Think of it as a gate: Break through - momentum builds Fail - market takes a breather If Bitcoin clears resistance, the next key level comes into play: The 100-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) ($82,500 region) This level acts as: A strong weekly close above this would: Let’s look under the hood. The RSI is currently sitting around: 46 (on the weekly timeframe) This tells us: In simple terms: Bears are losing momentum… but bulls aren’t fully in control yet. The MACD has recently: This is often an early signal that: Momentum is turning in favour of buyers It doesn’t guarantee a rally… …but it does suggest the market is no longer in a strong downtrend. For a confirmed bullish scenario, traders should watch for: If these conditions are met: The probability of a sustained uptrend increases significantly Of course, this is Bitcoin, nothing moves in a straight line. Bearish risks include: If BTC fails to break higher: Expect consolidation or a pullback before the next move Let’s bring it all together. Bitcoin isn’t ignoring the Middle East conflict because it’s suddenly fearless or immune. It’s holding up because: In other words: Bigger forces are at play, and they’re outweighing short-term fear. Not quite. Despite the narrative, Bitcoin is still: Comparing it to Gold is still a bit premature. But… This shift changes how you approach the market. Instead of focusing purely on: You should start watching: Because in modern markets: Liquidity leads. Everything else follows. Bitcoin isn’t ignoring the war. It’s just listening to something louder: Money. And until that changes…don’t be surprised if BTC continues to behave in ways that confuse traders who are only watching the news.

A tepid start to the week for financial markets. Developments surrounding Iran have slowed down over the last few days, with little to grab people’s attention and therefore little to move the needle as far as traders are concerned. Fundamentals are set to re-take the centre stage this week, thanks to ample contributions from both the economic and earnings calendars. Precious metals are showing almost no movement early this morning, with gold holding on to $4,700 per ounce and silver maintaining pace at $76. Currencies are equally relaxed, as traders await more significant catalysts later in the week. The one exception to the rule is Bitcoin, which briefly breached $79,000 this morning, its highest valuation since January. Even crude oil is experiencing a rare period of stability, with prices largely unchanged from Friday. The Brent Crude benchmark is currently sitting at $106 per barrel, while the increasingly relevant WTI is trading for $95 in comparison. The United States has recently authorised the release of millions of barrels of oil from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve in order to help cover the global shortfall in crude deliveries. 80 million barrels have been released so far, the bulk of which is destined for Europe. The oil is being sold on the basis that it will be returned at a later date, likely several years from now. Such exchange mechanisms have been used before, notably following the outbreak of the conflict in Ukraine. Although the measure is useful for addressing acute imbalances in oil markets, the release remains a temporary fix, hence the lack of impact on crude prices. The US Department of justice has ended the criminal investigation into Jerome Powell concerning cost overruns in the renovation of the Federal Reserve headquarters. The probe focused on whether the Fed Chairman had lied to the Senate Banking Committee regarding the project, which now boasts an official price tag of $2.5 billion, significantly surpassing initial budget estimates. The investigation did not sit well with committee member Thom Tillis, who had pledged to block the confirmation of Kevin Warsh, Jerome Powell’s successor, for as long as the current Fed Chairman remained under review. Now that the probe has been abandoned, Tillis has stated his intention to support Warsh and the Senate Banking Committee has scheduled an executive session on Wednesday morning to vote on the matter. Jerome Powell’s term as Fed Chairman officially ends next month, paving the way for a smooth transition to his replacement. No fewer than five central bank decisions will take place this week, with the Bank of Japan the first to announce early tomorrow morning. The Bank of Canada and the US Federal Reserve follow on Wednesday, with neither expected to enact a change in interest rates this time around. This week’s meeting will mark Jerome Powell’s final decision as Fed Chairman and FedWatch is currently predicting a rate hold with near 100% certainty. The Bank of England and European Central Bank convene on Thursday but neither are likely to move rates in either direction. Beyond monetary policy announcements, the first preliminary Q1 growth estimates will make their appearance this week. The Eurozone is predicted to report 0.2% growth in the first quarter, falling far short of the 2.1% expected for the United States. Friday will see market closures throughout Europe and Asia in observance of labour day, although US and Japanese stock exchanges will remain open according to normal operating hours. Despite it being the first Friday of the month, non-farm payrolls will not be published until next week, in accordance with scheduled BLS releases. The earnings calendar is equally busy, with five of the magnificent seven reporting this week. Alphabet (GOOG), Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN) and Meta Platforms (META) all report after market close on Wednesday, while Apple (AAPL) will report the following day. Big tech aside, a number of other heavy hitters also make their appearance this week, including Visa (V) and Coca-Cola (KO) on Tuesday, Eli Lilly (LLY) and Mastercard (MA) on Thursday, and finally Exxon Mobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX) on Friday. #FOMC #WARSH #EARNINGS