The naval blockade of Iranian ports has been a welcome development for financial markets, which have adopted a more risk-on approach over the last couple of days. US indices have enjoyed back-to-back gains so far this week, with the Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite continuing their ascent from the March lows. The Nasdaq has now closed in the green over the past ten consecutive sessions, while the S&P 500 managed to close at 6,967 points yesterday, bringing the index to within a mere 11 points of a new record high. Asian stock markets maintained the upward momentum this morning, bringing the Nikkei 225 and Kospi indices to within touching distance of record highs of their own. Precious metals have also attracted inflows since the announcement of the blockade, lifting gold by a solid $100 yesterday to $4,840 per ounce. Silver likewise put in a strong performance on Tuesday, gaining 5% to surpass $79 per ounce. Bitcoin also latched onto the positive sentiment, climbing to $74,000 per coin on Monday and briefly touching $76,000 yesterday, which marks the highest price observed since early February. The increased naval presence in the Persian Gulf has stabilised crude oil prices so far this week, with Brent Crude down to $94, while local dynamics in the United States have pushed WTI down to $90 per barrel. Crude inventories in the US rose by another 6 million barrels last week, going against analyst expectations of a 1.3 million barrel draw. WTI futures for June, which will soon become the front-month contract, are trading even lower at $88 per barrel. Hope remains that some kind of agreement between the US and Iran may be established eventually, with President Trump hinting that talks could resume over the next two days. #SPX #WTI #IRAN
High oil prices refer to a sustained increase in crude oil costs above historical averages, typically driven by supply disruptions, geopolitical tensions, or strong global demand. Now, that’s the textbook definition. Here’s the trader’s version: High oil prices are one of the fastest ways to shake the entire global economy, and your trading account if you’re not paying attention, so switch on, buckle up and take note! If you understand how this works then you can profit from knowing how the markets react to higher oil prices, opportunity comes knocking; you can make substantial gains, get it wrong and you will blow your account. Education is key to your success. Oil is deeply embedded in the global system. It fuels transport, powers industries, and indirectly influences the cost of almost everything we consume. So, when oil rises sharply, it doesn’t stay contained, it spreads. This is why oil is considered a macro driver, not just a commodity. Why traders should care: In other words, oil is like that one friend who shows up uninvited and somehow controls the entire party. Oil prices tend to spike during geopolitical conflicts because supply becomes uncertain, and markets hate uncertainty more than traders hate stop losses. Historically, events like the Gulf War and the Russia–Ukraine War caused sharp oil price surges. In both cases: Today, tensions involving Iran are driving similar concerns. But here’s the deeper layer: Oil doesn’t just react to actual supply loss; it reacts to perceived risk. That’s where risk premium comes in. Traders start pricing in: This creates a situation where oil prices rise before supply is actually reduced. An oil shock is not a single event; it’s a chain reaction. Let’s break it down step-by-step (this is where your article beats competitors): Triggered by conflict, supply cuts, or demand spikes. Businesses pay more for: Companies pass costs onto consumers → inflation increases. Consumers cut back → growth slows. Interest rate decisions become more complicated. This is why oil shocks are dangerous: They hit both sides of the economy: And when both sides get hit… things wobble. Stagflation is one of the most feared economic conditions. The term “stagflation” refers to a combination of: And yes, it’s as bad as it sounds. High oil prices are one of the main causes of stagflation because they: This creates a nightmare scenario for central banks. Why central banks struggle here: Normally: But with stagflation: You get both at the same time. So, what do you do? Answer: cautiously… and usually not very effectively in the short term. Some economies are far more exposed to oil shocks than others. These economies rely heavily on imported energy, making them vulnerable to price spikes. The European Central Bank faces a particularly difficult challenge: Result: policy confusion + currency volatility. These countries can offset higher oil prices through domestic production. The US has a structural advantage in an oil shock environment. Thanks to shale oil production, the US is less dependent on imports than it once was. This changes the game completely compared to previous decades. Key strengths: For the US to enter recession purely due to oil: Prices would likely need to exceed $140–$150 per barrel and stay elevated. That’s a high bar. The Federal Reserve faces a tricky balancing act during oil shocks. Oil-driven inflation is supply-driven, meaning interest rate hikes don’t directly fix the problem. Yet, central banks still need to: Likely outcome in 2026: Oil and forex are closely linked, and this is where traders can gain an edge. EUR (Euro) The euro is highly sensitive to oil because Europe is energy dependent. When oil rises: GBP (British Pound) The United Kingdom sits in a middle ground. GBP reacts to: Typically weaker, but less fragile than EUR. USD (US Dollar) The USD often benefits from oil spikes. Why? Now let’s get tactical. High oil = pressure on Europe. Execution: Oil spikes often trigger risk aversion. Pairs to watch: Oil feeds into inflation data. Example: If: Trade divergence: Combine: This is where professional traders outperform retail. In 2026, oil markets are being driven heavily by geopolitical uncertainty. Tensions involving Iran and Middle Eastern supply routes are keeping prices elevated and volatile. At the same time: This creates a perfect storm for: Volatile, opportunity-rich trading conditions. This is where most traders get wiped out. Oil-driven markets are: Key rules: Oil markets don’t forgive complacency. High oil prices are one of the most powerful forces in global markets. They influence: For traders, this presents both risk and opportunity. The key takeaway? If you understand oil, you understand the market. Ignore it, and you’re trading blind. Oil price increases typically strengthen the US dollar and weaken energy-importing currencies like the euro due to inflation and growth pressures. High oil prices are generally negative for the global economy as they increase inflation and slow growth, especially in energy-importing countries. Currencies of oil-exporting countries like the US dollar (indirectly), Canadian dollar, and Norwegian krone often benefit from rising oil prices. Traders can monitor oil trends to anticipate currency movements, particularly in EUR/USD and GBP/USD, and align trades with inflation and risk sentiment shifts. Nobody can predict the future but understanding how the oil price affects the markets can be the difference of a profit, or a loss for any seasoned trader. Remember risk management is crucial to survival so don’t go all in and trade the family silver. Trade cautiously and don’t forget the basics.
Negotiations between the United States and Iran collapsed over the weekend, leading President Trump to announce a naval blockade of all maritime traffic entering or exiting Iranian ports. According to a press release from US Central Command, the blockade will not affect vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz to and from non-Iranian ports, meaning neutral vessels should, in theory, be able to pass through the Persian Gulf unimpeded. The measure is scheduled to take effect at 10am Eastern Time later today, leaving plenty of time for further developments to unfold. Markets were understandably shaken this morning, causing sizeable gaps in precious metals as trading got underway. Gold opened lower as traders digested the latest events but has since recouped most of the early losses and is currently trading above $4,700 per ounce. Silver is the more fragile among its peers this morning, unable to mount much of a defence and sustaining a 2% loss so far today. Cryptocurrencies also succumbed to the negative sentiment, pushing Bitcoin back down to $70,000 per coin from $73,000 last night. Asian stock markets had a rough start to the session, with the Nikkei 225 and Kospi indices both experiencing minor losses this morning, although the damage appears to be limited for now. The biggest factor in all of this is of course the oil trade. Despite the ongoing conflict, Iran has continued to export crude oil via more obscure pathways, making use of its shadow fleet of tankers to offload its oil around the world. According to some estimates, these outflows have amounted to around 1.5 million barrels per day on average. If the blockade is successful, these shipments will come to an immediate halt, further reducing global supplies. Oil prices pushed back over $100 this morning, with Brent Crude trading for $102 and WTI selling at a slight premium at $104 per barrel. WTI front-month contracts will roll over to June over the next week, meaning the premium should once again favour Brent Crude over the West Texas benchmark. A very dull economic calendar this week. Tuesday offers a glimpse into the US economy with the latest PPI reading, which is expected to show a sharp uptick to 1.2% month-over-month in March, but other than that, there is very little going on. The earnings calendar has slightly more to offer, with big banks kicking things off at the start of the week. Goldman Sachs (GS) will report before market open later today, while Tuesday gives the floor to JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Citigroup (C), Well Fargo (WFC) and Blackrock (BLK). Bank of America (BAC) and Morgan Stanley (MS) report on Wednesday, after which attentions will turn towards the chip manufacturing sector. ASML Holdings (ASML) also report on Wednesday, while Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company are set to publish their latest earnings on Thursday. Until then, any sudden changes surrounding Iran will likely prompt equally sudden changes in market sentiment. #HASHTAG1 #HASHTAG2
Markets remain cautiously optimistic on the US-Iran ceasefire holding. Stock markets around the world have enjoyed a few days of solid buying pressure, lifting the Dow Jones index back into the green for the year and all but erasing the war-induced dip on the S&P 500. Intel Corporation (INTC) blasted higher over the last couple of sessions after Google (GOOG) announced plans to expand its partnership with the chipmaker, committing to using several generations of Intel chips to power its AI ambitions. The Nasdaq Composite index and S&P 500 have now achieved seven consecutive days of gains and are both within 5% of their respective record highs. Asian Stock markets have similarly reversed course, with the Nikkei 225 up almost 7% so far this week and the Korean Kospi index boasting a 9% gain since last Friday. Crude oil prices have showed some degree of stability over the last few days, with the Brent and WTI benchmarks both sitting around $97 per barrel, although the situation on the ground is far from ideal. Saudi Arabia has reported that recent attacks carried out against energy infrastructure targets have reduced the Kingdom’s oil production by 600,000 barrels per day. Officials also confirmed a strike against the East-West Pipeline, which up until this point had served as a release valve for Saudi oil unable to leave via the normal routes. Kuwait has likewise reported fresh drone strikes against its energy facilities, as have other countries in the region, despite the ceasefire. Yesterday’s PCE Price index released in line with expectations, with headline year-over-year inflation remaining at 2.8% and the core index ticking down to 3.0% in February from 3.1% previously. Traders only have a few more hours to wait before US CPI data drops later today, marking the end of the week’s scheduled events. Interest rate traders are currently pricing in a near-zero percent chance of a rate hike during the next Fed meeting on the 29th of April and continue to fall in favour of a rate hold until the end of the year. By and large, markets are in standby mode, waiting for the next catalyst to provide a direction as the situation in Iran remains unresolved. #CEASEFIRE #INTEL #CPI
Most losing trend trades start the same way. The direction was right; the timing was not. A trader spots a rising market, buys near the top of the move, then watches a routine pullback stop them out before the trend carries on without them. Getting the direction right is only half the job. This guide covers the whole sequence: how to tell whether a market is rising, falling or going nowhere, how to confirm it with moving averages, RSI, ADX and MACD, and how to plan the entry, the stop and the exit before the trade goes live. A trend trading strategy means trading in the direction the market is already moving: buying while price prints higher highs and higher lows, selling while it prints lower highs and lower lows, and standing aside when it does neither. Read the direction from price structure and a moving average, check the strength with ADX, then enter on a pullback and exit when momentum turns. You are reacting to evidence, never forecasting a turn. The routine only becomes yours once you run it on a live chart, so pick one pair and walk it through this week, on a demo account if you prefer. Trend trading is a strategy that buys or sells in the direction of the market's existing movement instead of predicting where it will turn. In forex trading, that means going long while a pair keeps making higher highs and higher lows, going short while it makes lower highs and lower lows, and staying flat when it does neither. The trend trader's job is not to call the top or the bottom; it is to recognise the direction already underway and ride the middle of it. It is also one of the oldest documented ways to trade. AQR's research paper A Century of Evidence on Trend-Following Investing tracks the approach back to 1880, and industry estimates put the money run this way by hedge funds and CTAs in the hundreds of billions of dollars. Whatever else trend following is, it is not a gimmick. On the EUR/USD daily chart, the picture I look for is plain: price holding above a rising 50-day average, each swing low forming higher than the last. That is a trend worth following, and everything later in this article builds on reading exactly that. Read more：Best trading strategy guide: What every trader needs to know The main reason traders choose trend trading is that the logic asks so little of you. You do not need to forecast anything; you need to observe what price is already doing and act in the same direction. That single shift removes most of the guesswork that burns beginners. Three practical benefits follow from it: In my experience the difference shows up in how a position feels. A trade entered after the trend has proven itself is a calmer thing to hold than a falling knife caught on a hunch, because the market has already voted your way once. The honest trade-off: following means arriving after the start, so you will enter late, and some signals will fail. Trend traders rarely win most of their trades. The edge lives in the size of the wins against the losses, and I will put numbers on that further down. Reading direction is the first step of the whole strategy, and a few working habits beat memorised definitions. These four are the ones I actually use. Before anything else, pull the chart out to the daily or weekly view, and switch to a line chart if the candles are cluttering your read. The lower timeframes are full of reversals that mean nothing one level up. I once spent a fortnight trading EUR/USD off the 15-minute chart, convinced the pair was choppy and directionless; on the daily it had been in the same quiet uptrend the entire time. The higher timeframe sets the direction. The lower one only times the entry. Read more：How to Read Forex Charts for Traders The core read is how the swing points migrate. Higher highs with higher lows is an uptrend. Lower highs with lower lows is a downtrend. Highs and lows overlapping inside a band is a range, and no indicator changes that verdict. In the EUR/USD run I keep returning to, the swing lows stepped up through 1.1462, 1.1531 and 1.1604, each one holding above the last. That staircase is the trend; everything else is confirmation. Connect the successive lows of a rise, or the highs of a fall, into a single line. While price keeps respecting that line, the trend is intact and pullbacks toward it are entry territory rather than a reason to panic. A clean break of the line is often the first warning that the direction is changing, arriving well before any indicator says so. On the same EUR/USD chart, one line under those three swing lows told the story faster than any oscillator on my screen. The most expensive habit in trend trading is finding trends that do not exist. Earlier this year EUR/USD spent six weeks stuck between roughly 1.1380 and 1.1450. I talked myself into two breakout longs inside that band and paid 19 and 26 pips to relearn an old lesson: when the highs and lows overlap and the averages go flat, the market is ranging, and the honest read is no trend at all. Standing aside is a position. A whipsaw is a sharp move in one direction that quickly reverses, triggering entries or stops on both sides. Whipsaws are most common in ranging markets and are the main cost of trading a trend that was never there. Once I have read the direction from the chart, four indicators do the confirming, and each has one fixed job: moving averages set the direction, ADX scores the strength, RSI and MACD read the momentum. None of them predicts anything. They confirm what the structure already shows, and I want at least two of them agreeing before money goes in. What follows is the strategy-level use of each. Parameter tuning and deeper mechanics belong in the dedicated indicator guides. Read more：The best forex indicators every trader should use in 2026 A moving average smooths the price over a set period to reveal the overall direction. Price holding above the average leans bullish, price below it leans bearish, and the line itself often behaves as dynamic support or resistance where pullbacks stall. In the shared example, the rising 50-day average sat underneath the entire climb, catching each dip before the trend resumed. RSI measures momentum on a scale of 0 to 100, showing whether price has stretched too far, too fast in either direction. For a trend trader its main use is reading whether the current leg still has fuel or is due a pause. One warning from experience: in a strong trend, RSI can sit in the overbought zone for weeks. Selling a healthy uptrend just because RSI printed 70 is one of the classic beginner errors; in trending conditions that reading is often simple strength, and the midline matters more than the extremes. ADX measures the strength of a trend, not its direction, on a scale of 0 to 100. A rising reading says the move has force behind it; a low reading says the market is drifting. That distinction is the filter that keeps trend traders out of ranges. The rule I actually trade by: readings above 25 mark a trend worth following, and below 20 I treat the market as ranging and wait. During the EUR/USD climb, ADX held at 31; through the six-week range that whipsawed me, it never got past 17. The indicator was telling the truth both times. MACD compares a short and a long moving average to read momentum and trend change. It is built from three parts, the MACD line, the signal line and the histogram, and its job in this strategy is confirmation: telling you whether the trend you are riding is still accelerating or quietly running out of road. Trend trading is a sequence, not an indicator sitting on a chart. The order matters: read the direction, wait for the entry, fix the risk, manage the exit. Here is the sequence with the numbers from the EUR/USD example running through it. Read the direction from the swing structure and the moving average, then score the strength with ADX. On the example chart the case was complete: swing lows stepping up, price above a rising 50-day average, ADX at 31. Direction unclear or strength below the threshold means the trade is to wait, and that answer comes up more often than beginners expect. One selection note: major pairs such as EUR/USD tend to trend more cleanly than exotics, with fewer false signals, so learn the routine there first. If you are still finding your feet, start with the beginner's guide to trading forex before adding a strategy on top. Chasing a trend that has already run is how good analysis becomes a bad entry. After confirming the direction, wait for price to come back to you: a dip to the rising average or a support level, or a momentum signal resetting, RSI turning back up through the midline, a fresh MACD cross. In the example, EUR/USD pulled back to the 50-day at 1.1573, held it for two sessions, and I bought at 1.1581. Not the bottom of the dip, and that was fine; the plan never required the bottom. A pullback is a temporary move against the prevailing trend, such as a dip within an uptrend, that pauses the move without breaking its structure. Trend traders use pullbacks to enter at better prices in the direction of the trend. The stop goes where the trend's structure breaks, and it is chosen before the entry, never after. For the example trade that was 1.1528, just under the prior swing low, making the risk 53 pips. Size then follows from the stop: risking £100 on a £10,000 account, one per cent, the stop distance worked out to about 0.19 lots. The order matters here too. Structure sets the stop, the stop sets the size, and no step runs backwards from the profit you would like to make. Read more：What is a stop-loss order and how to set it This is the part most guides skip, and it is where the money is actually made or given back. My routine is to trail the stop under each new swing low as the trend steps higher, then exit on evidence of the trend weakening: price closing below the 50-day average, MACD crossing back down, RSI falling through 50. In the example, that combination arrived after the pair topped at 1.1727, and I closed at 1.1694 for 113 pips. The exit gave back 33 pips from the peak, which is normal. A trend exit trades the last scrap of the move for confirmation that the move is over. Yes, but not in the way most beginners expect it to. Research from AQR Capital Management puts the historical win rate of trend-following strategies at roughly 30% to 40%. The strategy is profitable across a century of data anyway, because the average win is much larger than the average loss: losses are cut early at the structure break, winners are left to run, and a handful of long trends pays for the crowd of small failures. The institutional record backs the arithmetic. Trend following has been run at scale by hedge funds and CTAs for decades, through markets that buried plenty of flashier ideas, which is about as strong an endurance test as a strategy can pass. The honest entry requirement is psychological. Most of my trend trades lose a little; a few win a lot, and there is no way to know in advance which is which. If you need to be right often, this strategy will grind you down. If you can accept being wrong often and paid rarely but well, it works. Trend trading endures, but three things catch people over and over, and no amount of indicator stacking removes them. Here is each one, with how I limit it. A reversal turns the trend around and leaves with-trend positions on the wrong side of the market. They cluster around fading momentum and major data releases; a number like the US CPI can flip or fake a trend inside a minute. My limits are mechanical: the stop sits at the structure break so a reversal ends the trade rather than the account, and around major calendar releases I cut size or stand aside entirely. Every indicator in this article is computed from past prices, so every signal arrives late by construction. In a slow trend that lag is a fair price for the confirmation; in a fast reversal it means the exit signal can fire long after the best exit has gone. The limit is to never trade the indicator alone: price structure, the swing points and the trendline, moves first, and the indicators are there to agree with it, not to replace it. A false breakout pokes through a key level, triggers the entries waiting there, then snaps back inside the range. They are most common in sideways markets, which is exactly where my two failed longs in the spring came from. The limit is patience at the level: wait for a close beyond it, or the retest that holds, instead of buying the first push through. Missing the rare genuine breakout by a few pips costs far less than funding every false one. Trend trading is a strategy that involves capturing gains from an asset's momentum by trading in the direction it is already moving, whether up, down or sideways. Rather than predicting reversals, trend traders read the direction from price structure and use indicators such as moving averages and ADX to confirm the trend and its strength before entering. Research from AQR Capital Management indicates that trend-following strategies have a historical win rate between 30% and 40%, challenging the common belief that they succeed most of the time. The strategy stays profitable because the average win is far larger than the average loss, so the edge comes from asymmetry rather than accuracy. There is no single most profitable formula. The durable core is reading the direction with moving averages, entering with the trend on a pullback, and protecting profits with a trailing stop that exits when the trend reverses; profitability comes from executing that sequence consistently. Zoom out to the higher timeframe, where a new trend forms first, then drop to a lower timeframe to time the entry on a pullback. Checking that ADX is rising helps filter out ranging conditions that fake early trends. There is no single best timeframe; it depends on your trading style. Position and swing traders read daily and weekly charts, short-term traders work from hourly charts, and signals are most reliable when the direction agrees across timeframes. The concept is simple but the execution is not. The hard parts are waiting for a real trend, sitting through frequent small losses and exiting decisively when the trend reverses, so the skill that gets paid is discipline rather than prediction. Trend trading comes down to trading the direction instead of the forecast. Moving averages set the direction, ADX scores the strength, RSI and MACD read the momentum; the entry waits for a pullback or fresh confirmation, and the exit fires when the trend visibly weakens. The edge is asymmetry, many small losses against fewer, larger wins, so the win rate will never look impressive and never needs to. The indicators only confirm what the swing structure already shows, and discipline does the rest. Run the sequence on a demo account until reading the staircase of highs and lows feels routine, then trade it small. The chart has to justify every trade; the strategy just automates the follow-through. The RADEX MARKETS editorial team consists of seasoned financial professionals and market observers. Dedicated to delivering objective market summaries, macroeconomic insights, and educational content, the team strives to keep traders well-informed in a fast-paced financial environment. Reviewed by RADEX MARKETS Risk Warning: Trading derivatives and leveraged products carries a high level of risk, including the risk of losing substantially more than your initial investment. Related concepts:
The United States and Iran have agreed to a two-week ceasefire, suspending a planned bombing campaign that would have targeted large swathes of Iranian infrastructure. Financial markets have been quick to react this morning, with crude oil prices plummeting below $100 per barrel and Asian stock markets undertaking a bold push higher. Brent Crude is now hovering around $95 per barrel, while WTI, in a rare inversion, is currently trading at a slight premium at $96 per barrel. Oil markets are currently in a situation known as backwardation, meaning shorter-dated contracts are more expensive than longer-dated deliveries because markets expect the ongoing conflict to be resolved by the summer months. Coupled with different expiration dates for the two benchmarks, with WTI currently trading the May contract and Brent having already rolled over to the June contract, the reason for the premium in American oil becomes clear. Markets are predictably bullish going into today’s session, with the Nikkei 225 quickly rising 5% and the Korean Kospi index surging over 6% upon hearing the news. Futures for the Dow Jones and S&P 500 are 2% in the green, while Nasdaq futures are currently up over 3%. Precious metals continued their ascent, tipping gold above $ 4,800 per ounce and lifting silver 5% higher to $77 per ounce. Currencies are reacting equally strongly, with foreign exchange flows now fleeing the safety of the US dollar. The Euro came within a hair’s breadth of $1.17 earlier today, while the Pound was able to reclaim $1.34. The yen and Korean won both leapt higher, the latter gaining almost 2% against the greenback, erasing four weeks of losses in the process. Even cryptocurrencies are finally showing a degree of interest in world affairs, with Bitcoin rising up to $72,000 per coin and reaching a three-week high. While the conflict in Iran will undoubtedly continue to dominate the news cycle, traders would do well to keep an eye on a few key economic releases in the latter half of the week. Given the market closures around the Easter holiday, last Friday’s NFP release was understandably muted, despite surprisingly upbeat figures. US payrolls increased by 178 thousand in March, almost triple the expected figure of 60 thousand, while unemployment ticked down to 4.3% from 4.4% the month prior. The Fed will now have to grapple with the other side of the coin on Thursday with the release of the PCE price index, which is expected to show inflation holding steady at 2.8% YoY in February. The release precedes CPI figures on Friday, which are predicted to show a sharp uptick to 3.3% in March. The FOMC minutes from the latest meeting are scheduled for release later today, but so far FedWatch is not showing any signs of anything other than a rate hold at the end of the month. #CEASEFIRE #OIL #GOLD
