BERITA FOREX

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite recorded back-to-back record highs over the last two sessions, as markets worldwide maintain a level of cautious optimism regarding a cessation of hostilities in the Middle East. Both indices have emerged stronger than ever from the Iran-induced dip, erasing the losses incurred in March and propelling the S&P 500 past the 7,000-point threshold. According to President Trump, Israel and Lebanon have agreed to a temporary 10-day ceasefire, raising hopes that a more permanent resolution may be in the pipeline. Asian markets have also enjoyed the recent lull in military activity, pushing the Nikkei 225 to a record high of its own on Thursday. Some markets remain unconvinced, in particular precious metals, which have failed to maintain the positive momentum from earlier in the week. Gold is currently trading for $4,800 per ounce and much like yesterday, has yet to commit to any particular direction. Oil prices rose again yesterday, but remain under $100 for the time being. Brent Crude is now trading at $98 per barrel, while the WTI benchmark has fallen to $89. Oil markets are still in backwardation, meaning front-month contracts are being priced at a premium compared to deferred contracts, which are stabilising around $80 per barrel. The premium suggests that oil market participants are expecting the conflict to resolve sooner rather than later and that current shortfalls in production and delivery are only temporary. Meanwhile, natural gas continues to maintain a degree of stability despite supply disruptions in the Middle East, as markets expect US production to ramp up over the course of this year and into the next. On Thursday, financial services company Charles Schwab launched its spot crypto trading platform, making bitcoin and ether available to clients. The platform aims to compete with the likes of Robinhood and Coinbase and marks another step towards bridging the gap between traditional and decentralised finance. The move aligns with the observed consolidation between the two financial worlds, with crypto companies applying for US banking charters on the one side and traditional financial institutions offering access to cryptocurrency markets on the other. Another, unrelated development has triggered many heated debates this week, one centred around a proposal to make Bitcoin more resistant to future quantum attacks. BIP-361 proposes a migration to a new system of quantum-resistant addresses, which would ultimately do away with the current elliptic curve architecture. The proposal is contentious because it would force users to manually migrate their bitcoin towards the new system. This would eventually leave all the coins in dormant wallets to be permanently stranded, thereby effectively reducing the total supply of bitcoin. #SPX #IRAN #BITCOIN

Non-Farm Payrolls are one of the most impactful events on the economic calendar. The first Friday of the month consistently has traders glued to their screens in anticipation of the latest reading on the US labour market. The publication obviously matters to a lot of people and therefore to financial markets as a whole. With that being the case, it is not unfair to ask how reliable these figures really are. NFP figures undergo a series of revisions following their initial release. The first Friday delivers a first estimate of the number of jobs created over the course of the prior month. One month later, this figure receives a first correction. One month after that, the figure receives a second correction. On top of these monthly revisions, every summer the Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes a preliminary annual benchmark revision, before publishing a final benchmark revision around six months later. One initial print, two revisions, two benchmark adjustments. How big of a gap is typically observed between the different figures? At times, the word “gap” simply doesn’t cover it. Chasm would be a better descriptive. NFP numbers have always undergone significant revisions following their initial release, but the last few years have been bad enough to render the original publication almost completely useless. The period between April 2023 and March 2024 initially reported 2.9 million new jobs in the United States, a figure that was later revised downwards by 589,000 during the final benchmark adjustment. A pretty severe correction at first glance, but the following period missed by a country mile. Between April 2024 and March 2025, initial estimates reported 1.8 million new jobs, which was then revised downwards by 898,000 in the final count. This means that initial NFP reports overestimated US job creation in 2024 by a factor of two. Not only does this discredit the prevailing narrative of a recovering labour market at the time, but it also raises the question of the Federal Reserve’s ability to properly dictate monetary policy. If the Fed is making decisions based on faulty data, then how dependable can those decisions really be? In the central bank’s defence, a shortfall of a million jobs is not catastrophic compared to the 160 million people currently in employment in the United States, representing a mere 0.6% discrepancy. It is also true that the Fed relies on other sources of information than the BLS. With that said, monetary authorities are still relying, albeit partially, on incorrect data. The question remains: why are initial non-farm payroll estimates so poor? Figuring out the number of people with a job is not as easy as it should be. One might think that there is a national database that the government can query to get a reliable number, but this is not the case. Typically, the body responsible for compiling such information uses survey data to reach a verdict. This is as simple as asking businesses how many employees they have on payroll (establishment survey), as well as asking households how many people within are currently employed (household survey). It seems primitive but this the basis of data collection in most countries. The problem is that there is sometimes a large discrepancy between the figure provided by the establishment survey and that provided by the household survey. An additional problem is that such techniques are ill-equipped to capture the increasing prevalence of “grey area” work, such as freelancing, remote work, gig economy jobs, all of which became far more common during and after the COVID years. A final problem is the recent collapse in survey response rates, which used to be around 80-90%, but have subsequently fallen to around 50%, leaving the Bureau of Labor Statistics largely in the dark. This increases the reliance on modelling, which is evidently sub-optimal. This is why the benchmark adjustments exist. Rather than relying on surveys and modelling, the annual revisions lean on more robust data sources, such as tax records and census data. Such “hard data” take more time to collate, hence the longer time frames at play. Of course, none of the above addresses the credibility of the initial NFP report. If the number of jobs can be halved or doubled further down the line, then why bother paying attention to the initial release? As far as traders are concerned, the importance stems from the difference between the expected figure, which is priced in, and the actual figure, which is not, hence the tradeable event. As far as the greater macroeconomic environment is concerned, such data prints are not as useful as they should be and as such face rightful scepticism. Non-farm payrolls deliver another crucial piece of economic data: the unemployment rate. This is where things get arguably worse. The rate is defined as the number of unemployed people divided by the workforce. The workforce is typically defined as the population over the age of 16, minus retirees, students, military personnel, caregivers, institutionalised people and finally, discouraged workers. A discouraged worker is anyone who wants a job but has not actively searched for one in the last four weeks. Who can blame them? Discouraged workers are not taken into consideration when calculating the unemployment rate, which can make such figures look better than they really are. In the case of the United States, the labour force participation rate stands at 62%, meaning over a third of the adult population is not considered part of the work force at all. Almost 40% of the US population have no impact whatsoever on the apparent health or unhealth of the labour market. That’s over 100 million people. Many of them are retired, in higher education or busy raising children, but millions of others are not. The BLS attempts to offer a more realistic statistic in the form of the U-6 unemployment rate, which includes broader sections of the population, but even that fails to include anyone out of work for more than twelve months. Just as with HR departments, a one-year resume gap is a death sentence. Large swathes of the population disappear into a statistical no-man’s land when it comes to employment figures, further eroding confidence in the NFP reports that provide them. The fact of the matter is that a growing number of people have given up, not only on finding a job, but on participating in society under any form. These people are invisible. These people do not appear in economic charts, demographic tables, census surveys, electoral polling or as marketing targets. These people lie on the other side of the broken social contract, perhaps never to be seen again. A far larger problem than one suggested by basic unemployment rates. Non-farm payrolls have long been a pillar of the economic calendar, but if the underlying figures continue to be this inaccurate, then eventually people will stop paying attention. It has not happened yet, but one day the lack of credibility in such reports will have institutions shrugging their shoulders in disinterest, turning instead to revised publications and alternative data sources. Traders will follow soon after.

The naval blockade of Iranian ports has been a welcome development for financial markets, which have adopted a more risk-on approach over the last couple of days. US indices have enjoyed back-to-back gains so far this week, with the Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite continuing their ascent from the March lows. The Nasdaq has now closed in the green over the past ten consecutive sessions, while the S&P 500 managed to close at 6,967 points yesterday, bringing the index to within a mere 11 points of a new record high. Asian stock markets maintained the upward momentum this morning, bringing the Nikkei 225 and Kospi indices to within touching distance of record highs of their own. Precious metals have also attracted inflows since the announcement of the blockade, lifting gold by a solid $100 yesterday to $4,840 per ounce. Silver likewise put in a strong performance on Tuesday, gaining 5% to surpass $79 per ounce. Bitcoin also latched onto the positive sentiment, climbing to $74,000 per coin on Monday and briefly touching $76,000 yesterday, which marks the highest price observed since early February. The increased naval presence in the Persian Gulf has stabilised crude oil prices so far this week, with Brent Crude down to $94, while local dynamics in the United States have pushed WTI down to $90 per barrel. Crude inventories in the US rose by another 6 million barrels last week, going against analyst expectations of a 1.3 million barrel draw. WTI futures for June, which will soon become the front-month contract, are trading even lower at $88 per barrel. Hope remains that some kind of agreement between the US and Iran may be established eventually, with President Trump hinting that talks could resume over the next two days. #SPX #WTI #IRAN

High oil prices refer to a sustained increase in crude oil costs above historical averages, typically driven by supply disruptions, geopolitical tensions, or strong global demand. Now, that’s the textbook definition. Here’s the trader’s version: High oil prices are one of the fastest ways to shake the entire global economy, and your trading account if you’re not paying attention, so switch on, buckle up and take note! If you understand how this works then you can profit from knowing how the markets react to higher oil prices, opportunity comes knocking; you can make substantial gains, get it wrong and you will blow your account. Education is key to your success. Oil is deeply embedded in the global system. It fuels transport, powers industries, and indirectly influences the cost of almost everything we consume. So, when oil rises sharply, it doesn’t stay contained, it spreads. This is why oil is considered a macro driver, not just a commodity. Why traders should care: In other words, oil is like that one friend who shows up uninvited and somehow controls the entire party. Oil prices tend to spike during geopolitical conflicts because supply becomes uncertain, and markets hate uncertainty more than traders hate stop losses. Historically, events like the Gulf War and the Russia–Ukraine War caused sharp oil price surges. In both cases: Today, tensions involving Iran are driving similar concerns. But here’s the deeper layer: Oil doesn’t just react to actual supply loss; it reacts to perceived risk. That’s where risk premium comes in. Traders start pricing in: This creates a situation where oil prices rise before supply is actually reduced. An oil shock is not a single event; it’s a chain reaction. Let’s break it down step-by-step (this is where your article beats competitors): Triggered by conflict, supply cuts, or demand spikes. Businesses pay more for: Companies pass costs onto consumers → inflation increases. Consumers cut back → growth slows. Interest rate decisions become more complicated. This is why oil shocks are dangerous: They hit both sides of the economy: And when both sides get hit… things wobble. Stagflation is one of the most feared economic conditions. The term “stagflation” refers to a combination of: And yes, it’s as bad as it sounds. High oil prices are one of the main causes of stagflation because they: This creates a nightmare scenario for central banks. Why central banks struggle here: Normally: But with stagflation: You get both at the same time. So, what do you do? Answer: cautiously… and usually not very effectively in the short term. Some economies are far more exposed to oil shocks than others. These economies rely heavily on imported energy, making them vulnerable to price spikes. The European Central Bank faces a particularly difficult challenge: Result: policy confusion + currency volatility. These countries can offset higher oil prices through domestic production. The US has a structural advantage in an oil shock environment. Thanks to shale oil production, the US is less dependent on imports than it once was. This changes the game completely compared to previous decades. Key strengths: For the US to enter recession purely due to oil: Prices would likely need to exceed $140–$150 per barrel and stay elevated. That’s a high bar. The Federal Reserve faces a tricky balancing act during oil shocks. Oil-driven inflation is supply-driven, meaning interest rate hikes don’t directly fix the problem. Yet, central banks still need to: Likely outcome in 2026: Oil and forex are closely linked, and this is where traders can gain an edge. EUR (Euro) The euro is highly sensitive to oil because Europe is energy dependent. When oil rises: GBP (British Pound) The United Kingdom sits in a middle ground. GBP reacts to: Typically weaker, but less fragile than EUR. USD (US Dollar) The USD often benefits from oil spikes. Why? Now let’s get tactical. High oil = pressure on Europe. Execution: Oil spikes often trigger risk aversion. Pairs to watch: Oil feeds into inflation data. Example: If: Trade divergence: Combine: This is where professional traders outperform retail. In 2026, oil markets are being driven heavily by geopolitical uncertainty. Tensions involving Iran and Middle Eastern supply routes are keeping prices elevated and volatile. At the same time: This creates a perfect storm for: Volatile, opportunity-rich trading conditions. This is where most traders get wiped out. Oil-driven markets are: Key rules: Oil markets don’t forgive complacency. High oil prices are one of the most powerful forces in global markets. They influence: For traders, this presents both risk and opportunity. The key takeaway? If you understand oil, you understand the market. Ignore it, and you’re trading blind. Oil price increases typically strengthen the US dollar and weaken energy-importing currencies like the euro due to inflation and growth pressures. High oil prices are generally negative for the global economy as they increase inflation and slow growth, especially in energy-importing countries. Currencies of oil-exporting countries like the US dollar (indirectly), Canadian dollar, and Norwegian krone often benefit from rising oil prices. Traders can monitor oil trends to anticipate currency movements, particularly in EUR/USD and GBP/USD, and align trades with inflation and risk sentiment shifts. Nobody can predict the future but understanding how the oil price affects the markets can be the difference of a profit, or a loss for any seasoned trader. Remember risk management is crucial to survival so don’t go all in and trade the family silver. Trade cautiously and don’t forget the basics.

Negotiations between the United States and Iran collapsed over the weekend, leading President Trump to announce a naval blockade of all maritime traffic entering or exiting Iranian ports. According to a press release from US Central Command, the blockade will not affect vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz to and from non-Iranian ports, meaning neutral vessels should, in theory, be able to pass through the Persian Gulf unimpeded. The measure is scheduled to take effect at 10am Eastern Time later today, leaving plenty of time for further developments to unfold. Markets were understandably shaken this morning, causing sizeable gaps in precious metals as trading got underway. Gold opened lower as traders digested the latest events but has since recouped most of the early losses and is currently trading above $4,700 per ounce. Silver is the more fragile among its peers this morning, unable to mount much of a defence and sustaining a 2% loss so far today. Cryptocurrencies also succumbed to the negative sentiment, pushing Bitcoin back down to $70,000 per coin from $73,000 last night. Asian stock markets had a rough start to the session, with the Nikkei 225 and Kospi indices both experiencing minor losses this morning, although the damage appears to be limited for now. The biggest factor in all of this is of course the oil trade. Despite the ongoing conflict, Iran has continued to export crude oil via more obscure pathways, making use of its shadow fleet of tankers to offload its oil around the world. According to some estimates, these outflows have amounted to around 1.5 million barrels per day on average. If the blockade is successful, these shipments will come to an immediate halt, further reducing global supplies. Oil prices pushed back over $100 this morning, with Brent Crude trading for $102 and WTI selling at a slight premium at $104 per barrel. WTI front-month contracts will roll over to June over the next week, meaning the premium should once again favour Brent Crude over the West Texas benchmark. A very dull economic calendar this week. Tuesday offers a glimpse into the US economy with the latest PPI reading, which is expected to show a sharp uptick to 1.2% month-over-month in March, but other than that, there is very little going on. The earnings calendar has slightly more to offer, with big banks kicking things off at the start of the week. Goldman Sachs (GS) will report before market open later today, while Tuesday gives the floor to JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Citigroup (C), Well Fargo (WFC) and Blackrock (BLK). Bank of America (BAC) and Morgan Stanley (MS) report on Wednesday, after which attentions will turn towards the chip manufacturing sector. ASML Holdings (ASML) also report on Wednesday, while Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company are set to publish their latest earnings on Thursday. Until then, any sudden changes surrounding Iran will likely prompt equally sudden changes in market sentiment. #HASHTAG1 #HASHTAG2

Markets remain cautiously optimistic on the US-Iran ceasefire holding. Stock markets around the world have enjoyed a few days of solid buying pressure, lifting the Dow Jones index back into the green for the year and all but erasing the war-induced dip on the S&P 500. Intel Corporation (INTC) blasted higher over the last couple of sessions after Google (GOOG) announced plans to expand its partnership with the chipmaker, committing to using several generations of Intel chips to power its AI ambitions. The Nasdaq Composite index and S&P 500 have now achieved seven consecutive days of gains and are both within 5% of their respective record highs. Asian Stock markets have similarly reversed course, with the Nikkei 225 up almost 7% so far this week and the Korean Kospi index boasting a 9% gain since last Friday. Crude oil prices have showed some degree of stability over the last few days, with the Brent and WTI benchmarks both sitting around $97 per barrel, although the situation on the ground is far from ideal. Saudi Arabia has reported that recent attacks carried out against energy infrastructure targets have reduced the Kingdom’s oil production by 600,000 barrels per day. Officials also confirmed a strike against the East-West Pipeline, which up until this point had served as a release valve for Saudi oil unable to leave via the normal routes. Kuwait has likewise reported fresh drone strikes against its energy facilities, as have other countries in the region, despite the ceasefire. Yesterday’s PCE Price index released in line with expectations, with headline year-over-year inflation remaining at 2.8% and the core index ticking down to 3.0% in February from 3.1% previously. Traders only have a few more hours to wait before US CPI data drops later today, marking the end of the week’s scheduled events. Interest rate traders are currently pricing in a near-zero percent chance of a rate hike during the next Fed meeting on the 29th of April and continue to fall in favour of a rate hold until the end of the year. By and large, markets are in standby mode, waiting for the next catalyst to provide a direction as the situation in Iran remains unresolved. #CEASEFIRE #INTEL #CPI