Financial Analyst/Content Writer, RADEX MARKETS
Lawrence J. came from a strong technical and engineering background before pivoting into a more financial role later on in his career. Always interested in international finance, Lawrence is experienced in both traditional markets as well as the emerging crypto markets. He now serves as the financial writer for RADEX MARKETS.
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Iran has claimed it is in the final stages of establishing a framework to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a day after reaching an agreement with Oman on shipping route coordinates. While any kind of lasting peace is still likely to take weeks or even months, markets are cautiously optimistic heading into the final day of trading of the week. It has already been said, but traders have been in this position before and know well enough that any diplomatic progress can be undone in an instant. Crude oil markets were seemingly conscious of this as well, as Brent Crude gained a solid 4% yesterday to reach $83 per barrel.
The July NFP figures are mere hours away and if the US labour market updates from earlier in the week are anything to go by, market participants would do well to lower their expectations. Tuesday’s JOLT survey was nothing to write home about, with the number of job openings falling to 7.359 million in June, short of the predicted 7.4 million, while the ADP employment change released the following day came in at just 44 thousand jobs compared to the consensus of 70 thousand. Thursday’s jobless claims also disappointed, albeit marginally. Today’s headline figure is expected to hit 80 thousand new jobs, while the unemployment rate is projected to remain at 4.2%. Overall, the US labour market is considered to be stable, fitting in nicely with the Fed’s “soft landing” scenario, while the latest inflation readings have been distinctly more manageable compared to a few months ago.
The implied market probability of a rate hike in September fell somewhat over the last few days and is now closer to 50-50, telling a different story compared to the narrative that prevailed at the start of the week. US indices underwent a predictable bout of profit-taking over the last couple of sessions – unsurprising given the fresh record highs established earlier this week. The earnings calendar will basically go dark after this point, with the broader picture well established and markets generally content with the current state of affairs. All-in-all markets are stable going into today’s session, patiently awaiting the NFP drop later on, while keeping an eye out for any further developments in the Middle East.
About the Author
Lawrence J. came from a strong technical and engineering background before pivoting into a more financial role later on in his career. Always interested in international finance, Lawrence is experienced in both traditional markets as well as the emerging crypto markets. He now serves as the financial writer for RADEX MARKETS.
Reviewed by RADEX MARKETS
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