Financial Analyst/Content Writer, RADEX MARKETS
Lawrence J. came from a strong technical and engineering background before pivoting into a more financial role later on in his career. Always interested in international finance, Lawrence is experienced in both traditional markets as well as the emerging crypto markets. He now serves as the financial writer for RADEX MARKETS.
ХУВьЦАА
The fog of war is once again obscuring the situation in the Middle East, as the US and Iran continue to exchange real fire and not so veiled threats against one another. Official statements regarding transit through the Strait of Hormuz are as contradictory as ever, while negotiators from both sides attempt to salvage some form of agreement even though diplomacy looks increasingly futile. Many market participants will be bored of the conflict by now, particularly those dealing with oil contracts, which shot up around 4% early this morning amid fresh reports of Iranian drone strikes targeting a number of Gulf states. Nothing too extreme as of yet, but the Brent Crude benchmark is back up to $78 per barrel, while WTI contracts have risen to $73. Despite the drama, Japanese and Korean stock markets have been relatively stable so far today as more news comes in. Precious metals on the other hand are not looking so hot, with gold opening with a minor gap to the downside and falling to around $4,075 per ounce at the time of writing, while silver lost the better part of a dollar to sink under $59 per ounce. Bitcoin meanwhile has not succumbed to the same fear, edging higher to $64,000 per coin and affording the wider cryptocurrency sphere some much needed breathing room.
The economic calendar will get busy almost immediately this week. On Tuesday, all eyes will turn to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which will publish the June CPI report, offering the latest inflation reading from the United States. On the face of it, current predictions may seem a little odd, with the headline month-over-month figure expected to dive into negative territory at -0.1%, meaning that prices in fact went down in June. The reason for the sudden plunge in prices is of course linked to the collapse in crude oil over the past few weeks as the Iran crisis cooled down. Higher energy costs can rapidly translate to higher consumer prices, as observed in the March, April and May inflation data, but such pressures can dissipate just as quickly once the price per barrel returns to normal. A more useful metric, particularly given the wild price swings in energy prices over the last few months, is the core inflation rate, which excludes such volatile components. June core inflation is the figure to watch on Tuesday, which is in fact expected to rise to 0.3% from 0.2% in May, while the year-over-year figure is predicted to remain at 2.9%. Investors will be reaching for the nearest bottle of champagne if the actual figures come in any lower, because as it stands the Fed absolutely cannot allow inflation to go any higher and everyone knows it. Chairman Kevin Warsh has made it quite clear that the committee will increase interest rates on the dollar if necessary and markets are predicting at least one rate hike before the end of the year. Speaking of Warsh, the newly appointed head of the Federal Reserve will deliver his first semi-annual monetary policy testimony starting on Tuesday and likely the following day as well. Although the incoming Chairman has barely had a chance to warm his seat, ascending to the throne just two months ago, members of the Senate Banking Committee will no doubt grill the newcomer for answers as to why inflation remains at 4% and what Warsh intends to do about it. Not the most enviable of places to be.
The aforementioned CPI report and Kevin Warsh testimony may be the biggest events of the week, but there is plenty more for traders to chew on. Wednesday completes the US inflation picture with the latest PPI reading, which, just like its consumer-oriented counterpart, is expected to fall precipitously to just 0.2% from 1.1% the prior month. North of the border, the Bank of Canada will come to a decision on interest rates on the Canadian dollar, which will in all likelihood result in a hold at 2.25%. UK growth figures arrive on Thursday, as do US retail sales, while Friday offers the latest Eurozone CPI data, followed by Michigan Consumer Sentiment later in the day. But wait, there’s more. The earnings calendar kicks into gear this week, starting with the major banks on Tuesday, with JP Morgan (JPM), Bank of America (BAC), Goldman Sachs (GS), Wells Fargo (WFC) and Citigroup (C) all reporting. The banking sector remains partially in focus the following day with Morgan Stanley (MS) and BlackRock (BLK), but attentions will then shift back towards the tech sector with the latest report from ASML. Semiconductors remain on the menu on Thursday as the spotlight shifts to Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) to close out the week.
Дериватив болон хөшүүрэгтэй бүтээгдэхүүнээр арилжаа хийх нь өндөр эрсдэлтэй бөгөөд таны анхны хөрөнгө оруулалтаас давсан алдагдал хүлээх эрсдэлтэй. Арилжаа хийхээсээ өмнө манай Нөхцөл, болзол (T&C) болон Бүтээгдэхүүний мэдээллийн баримт бичиг (PDS)-ийг уншина уу.
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