Oil prices made another leg up this morning, with no resolution in the Middle East in sight. Brent Crude futures hit $116 per barrel, while WTI, which still maintains a sizeable gap with seaborne contracts, pushed up to $102 earlier today. The US continued its military buildup in the region over the weekend, amassing thousands of troops in preparation for what is expected to be a mission to capture Kharg Island. On the other side of the Gulf, it appears as though Yemen has now also entered the conflict, potentially threatening shipping in and out of the Red Sea, further complicating matters. The situation remains volatile, as do oil prices, with both major benchmarks already undergoing wild swings this morning. As expected, US stock futures have reacted poorly to ongoing developments, while Asian stock markets shot down as soon as trading got underway this morning. The Nikkei 225 fell by 5% within minutes of the opening bell, as did the Korean Kospi, before both indices recovered a little as the session progressed. US stocks ended on a dour note last week, with the Dow Jones losing 1.7% on Friday, plunging the index into correction territory. Both the Dow and the Nasdaq have lost over 10% from recent highs and the S&P 500 is close to joining the club. Markets from Europe to Asia are experiencing similar drawdowns, with Korean stocks being hit particularly hard. The US dollar made further inroads last week, pushing USDJPY over the dreaded 160 threshold on Friday. The move has prompted Japanese currency officials to warn speculators that authorities may step in to defend the yen if the situation persists. The comments helped move the pair back below 160 this morning. Meanwhile, the Korean Won is currently facing record lows against the dollar, with USDKRW now toying with 1,513. Good Friday will mean a shortened trading week for much of the world, with financial markets closed across Europe, America, Australia, New Zealand and Hong Kong. Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak later today but given the current environment it is unlikely that the Federal Reserve Chairman will provide much in terms of insightful commentary. European inflation dominates Tuesday’s proceedings before the February JOLT survey steps in to provide the latest on US job openings. European unemployment, US retail sales and the ADP employment change are all events to look out for on Wednesday, as well as the ISM manufacturing PMI. Finally, although financial markets are closed on Friday, US government offices are not, meaning the March NFP report will be published according to the normal schedule. Economic calendar aside, developments surrounding Iran will continue to be the main drivers of financial movements this week. #IRAN #OIL #NFP
When I first started to try my hand at Forex trading, an old, seasoned trader — my mentor — told me that I needed to have a trading plan. He was so right! A trading plan is a written rulebook that sets out what you trade, when you enter and exit, and how much you risk on each position. In my experience, the difference between profitable and unprofitable trading often lies not in the strategy itself, but in whether this document exists, and whether the trader follows it. Most traders do not struggle because they lack a strategy. They struggle because that strategy has never been placed inside a disciplined framework, leaving room for emotional entries, stubbornly held losses and the occasional revenge trade that seemed like a brilliant idea for roughly 30 seconds. In this guide, I will explain what makes a trading plan profitable and take you through the eight steps needed to build your own. You will also find a copy-ready template, an example plan filled in as I would approach it, and the most common reasons otherwise sensible trading plans fail. A profitable trading plan combines positive-expectancy rules, risk limits you can maintain and routines you can follow consistently. Build yours in eight steps: set realistic goals, choose your markets, write precise entry and exit rules, establish risk limits, create daily routines, test and review the plan, and keep learning from the results. This guide includes a copy-ready template and a completed example to help you put those steps into practice. Once your plan is written, run it through a full cycle on a demo account before risking real money. Practise your trading plan on a demo account: A trading plan is a rulebook written before you enter the market. It defines which markets you trade, the conditions for entering and exiting, how much you can risk per trade and per day, and when the plan should be reviewed or revised. A trading strategy only answers when to buy and sell. A complete forex trading plan places that strategy inside a wider framework covering risk limits, daily routines, trading goals and performance reviews. Read more：Best trading strategy guide: What every trader needs to know Writing these rules down matters because written decisions can be tested, measured and held to account. Rules kept solely in your head have an unfortunate habit of changing shape as soon as the market moves against you. A trading plan should be treated as an operating document rather than a collection of good intentions. The plan itself does not generate profit; it keeps a positive-expectancy strategy alive long enough for that edge to show itself. A potentially profitable trading plan stands on three pillars: positive expectancy, hard risk limits and disciplined execution. Positive expectancy is the average amount a trading strategy is expected to make or lose over a large number of trades. It depends on the relationship between the win rate, average winning trade and average losing trade, not simply how often you are right. The formula is: Trading expectancy = (win rate × average win) − (loss rate × average loss) Suppose a strategy produces the following results: The calculation would be: (0.45 × 2R) − (0.55 × 1R) = 0.35R The strategy therefore has an expectancy of +0.35R per trade. If 1R equals £100, its theoretical average is £35 per trade over a sufficiently large sample, not a guaranteed £35 from every position. This example also shows why a win rate below 50% can still be profitable. When the average winner is sufficiently larger than the average loss, the strategy does not need to win most of the time to produce a positive result. Judge expectancy across a meaningful series of trades rather than after one particularly good or very grim afternoon. Hard risk limits protect profitability by preventing a normal losing run from becoming an account-ending event. A fixed risk percentage per trade controls the size of each loss, while a daily loss cap stops several poor decisions from compounding when conditions, or your judgement, are not at their best. For example, a trader might risk no more than 1% of the trading account on one position and stop trading after losing 2% in a day. The exact figures should reflect the trader's circumstances, but they must be decided before the first trade rather than negotiated after a loss. The UK Financial Conduct Authority also advises investors to place no more than 10% of their total net assets in high-risk investments. This is a broader personal-finance benchmark, not a suggested per-trade risk limit, but it provides useful context when deciding how much capital should be exposed to speculative products such as CFDs. The worst week must be survivable. Once the account is damaged beyond recovery, even the finest trading strategy in the world has nothing left to work with. Execution discipline means following the trading plan even when excitement, fear or frustration makes breaking the rules seem totally reasonable. Positive expectancy exists only on paper unless trades are executed consistently enough for the probabilities behind the strategy to play out. Research by Brad Barber and Terrance Odean illustrates the cost of excessive activity. In their study of 66,465 US brokerage households, the most active fifth earned an annualised net return of 11.4%, while the wider market returned 17.9% over the same period. Trading costs and high turnover accounted for much of the performance gap. A separate study of Taiwan's day traders reached an even starker conclusion: fewer than 1% were able to earn positive abnormal returns predictably and reliably after fees. These studies examined equity traders rather than forex traders, but the behavioural lesson travels well: unplanned activity and repeated transaction costs can steadily consume a genuine trading edge. Overtrading rarely announces itself as overtrading. It usually arrives disguised as “one more opportunity,” a rushed attempt to recover a loss or a trade that almost meets the entry rules. Read more：10 Signs of Overtrading and How to Avoid It I have watched too many positive-expectancy strategies die in accounts with no risk cap — the order is always survive first, profit second. A trading plan should contain every rule needed to prepare, execute and review a trade without relying on an impulsive decision. In practice, that means covering the following components: The plan does not need to be complete or beautifully polished on day one. Your goals, chosen markets, entry rules, exit rules and risk limits are enough to begin structured execution; the remaining details can be developed as your trading data accumulates. A trading plan can be built in eight practical steps, with each step producing one clearly defined block of the finished document. The aim is not to predict every market event but to decide in advance how you will respond to the situations your strategy is designed to trade. Trading goals are measurable performance objectives paired with equally clear loss limits. A return target without a maximum acceptable drawdown is incomplete because it defines the reward you want without acknowledging the risk required to pursue it. Write both figures over a fixed period, such as: These figures are illustrations rather than recommendations. Your own targets should reflect your strategy's tested performance, account size, experience and personal tolerance for loss. Unrealistic targets are one of the most common reasons trading plans fail. A trader who demands 20%+ every month may begin increasing position sizes, lowering entry standards and forcing trades simply because the calendar says the target is behind schedule. I set the drawdown ceiling first and build the return objective around what the strategy can reasonably produce within that boundary. This keeps the goal challenging enough to be useful without turning every trading session into a desperate chase for profit. Market selection means deciding which currency pairs or other instruments you will trade and when you will actively monitor them. Start with a small number of markets and choose sessions you can attend reliably, as familiarity is generally more useful than staring at twenty charts and pretending nothing has been missed. Write these limits into the plan as fixed rules. For example: Your selection should also suit the strategy. A London-session breakout approach requires active markets during European hours, while a swing trader may only need to check completed four-hour or daily candles at scheduled times. I personally prefer watching the same few pairs because I gradually learn how they behave during different sessions, news releases and volatility conditions. This narrower focus also makes it easier to recognise a valid setup without inventing one out of boredom. Entry rules are verifiable conditions that must be satisfied before a trade can be opened. The purpose is to turn the strategy into a tickable checklist, removing vague instructions such as “buy when the market looks bullish.” For example, a trend-pullback entry checklist might require: Each condition should produce a clear yes or no answer. If a rule depends on phrases such as “quite strong,” “roughly near support” or “probably reversing,” it is not yet precise enough to test consistently. I keep my entry checklist short and require every box to be ticked before placing the trade. If one condition is missing, I do not treat the setup as nearly valid — it is simply not my trade. Exit rules define where a trade will be closed for a loss, a profit or because the original setup is no longer valid. Both the stop-loss level and take-profit logic should be written down before entry, when the decision can still be made without the pressure of an open position. The stop distance should come from the chart structure rather than an arbitrary number of pips. Depending on the strategy, the stop might sit beyond a recent swing high or low, outside a support or resistance zone, or beyond the point that invalidates the original trade idea. Read more：What is a stop-loss order and how to set it The take-profit rule should be equally clear. It might use: I mark the invalidation level and intended profit target before calculating my position size. If the chart cannot provide enough realistic reward for the risk required, I leave the trade alone rather than squeezing the stop closer and hoping the market respects my accounting. It never does. Risk limits are the boundaries that prevent a losing trade, a difficult session or an emotional losing streak from causing disproportionate damage. A practical risk framework contains three separate controls: For example, a trader might risk 0.5% of the account per trade, stop after losing 1.5% in one day and close the platform after 3 consecutive losses. These figures are illustrative, but the limits must be precise enough to remove any room for negotiation. Position size should be calculated from the permitted cash risk and the distance between the entry and stop-loss. It should never be chosen first and then made to fit by moving the stop somewhere convenient. Read more：10 Forex risk management tips every trader should know My circuit breaker has saved me from turning an ordinary three-loss sequence into a full day of revenge trading. It does not prove that the next setup will lose; it simply recognises that my decision-making is unlikely to improve while I am trying to win the money back. Trading routines are repeatable tasks completed at fixed times before and after each session. Their purpose is to make sure the plan is being executed before open positions, sudden price movements and emotion begin competing for your attention. A practical pre-market checklist might include: The end-of-day review can be kept to 5 minutes. Record the trades taken, whether every rule was followed, any mistakes made and one useful observation from the session. I complete these routines at the same times each trading day because consistency removes the temptation to skip preparation when I feel confident. The market will happily provide enough surprises of its own without me arriving unprepared. Testing means running the complete trading plan over a predefined period or number of trades before committing real money. A demo account allows you to check whether the entry rules, exit logic, risk limits and routines can work together under live market conditions without placing capital at risk. Set the testing requirement in advance, such as 50 qualifying trades or 3 complete months. Track expectancy, win rate, average win, average loss, drawdown and rule-following separately, because a profitable result produced by broken rules does not prove that the plan works. The plan should also have a fixed review rhythm. A short weekly check can identify execution mistakes, while a monthly review can assess whether the strategy is behaving as expected and whether any rule needs further investigation. Read more：How to start trading forex: a step-by-step guide for beginners I revise my rules only during these scheduled reviews and only when the trading data supports a change. I never rewrite the plan in the middle of a losing day, when “improving the system” is often revenge trading wearing a slightly smarter jacket. Continuous learning means using your trading results to improve the plan as your knowledge and experience develop. Patterns found during scheduled reviews should feed back into the rules, while any new technique must be tested and verified before it earns a place in the live plan. Learning can also be written into the document as a measurable routine. For example, you might log one lesson during every weekly review and use the monthly review to identify one rule that should be retained, investigated or tested for possible revision. I treat new ideas as hypotheses rather than instant upgrades. They go through testing first, because adding every interesting concept to a working plan is a reliable way to turn one clear system into an unusable collection of opinions. A trading plan should evolve, but it should do so from evidence rather than impatience. Learning improves the plan only when it passes through the same disciplined review process as every other rule. This trading plan template sits directly on the page: copy it row by row into your own document, complete each section and it is ready to use without downloading anything. You can add, remove or adapt rows as your trading develops. However, the risk limits and review cycle rows should never be deleted, as these are what prevent one bad period from damaging the account and ensure the plan continues to improve. This is the template filled in as I might use it myself. The figures and rules are illustrative rather than recommendations, but they show how broad intentions can be turned into decisions that are specific enough to follow and measure. I would swap these numbers for figures suited to my own finances, strategy and tolerance for loss. Copying someone else's risk parameters is simply another way of having no personal trading plan. The skeleton of a trading plan never changes; what changes with trading style is which rows carry the most weight. A day trader needs tight intraday controls, while swing and position traders must give greater attention to overnight exposure, wider stops and longer review periods. This comparison only shows how the rows of a trading plan shift according to trading style. The entry methods, holding periods and practical techniques behind each approach belong in the dedicated day trading, swing trading and position trading guides. Read more：Types of forex traders and how they trade A trading plan is the rulebook written before trading, while a trading journal is the factual record completed afterwards. The plan tells you what should happen; the journal shows what actually happened, and together they create the feedback loop needed for improvement. The trading plan creates the standard and the journal measures performance against it. Without a plan, the journal has no clear benchmark; without a journal, the plan cannot reveal whether its rules are profitable or consistently followed. Trading plans usually fail because execution breaks down, not because the document lacks another indicator or several extra pages. The most common causes are surprisingly simple: Nearly every failure returns to the same practical point: a trading plan must be simple enough to execute on your worst day. My own working version fits on one page; the supporting journal may be detailed, but the rules I need while trading remain short, clear and to the point. Create a trading plan by setting measurable goals, choosing your markets and sessions, writing precise entry and exit rules, establishing risk limits, defining routines, testing the plan, reviewing the results and continuing to learn. The copy-ready template in this guide allows you to record each part in one structured document. A trading strategy answers the signal question of when to buy and sell. A trading plan is the complete framework surrounding that strategy, including risk limits, routines and a review cycle, and one plan may contain several strategies. The usual causes are excessive complexity, overly aggressive targets or rules that were unrealistic from the beginning. Reduce the plan to what you can execute on your worst day and add a losing-streak circuit breaker to stop emotional decisions from gathering momentum. Professional and institutional traders operate under written rules, risk limits and processes enforced by their organisations. For a retail trader, the trading plan serves as the institution you build for yourself. Review execution weekly, assess overall performance monthly and consider a deeper review each quarter. Revise rules only at those scheduled reviews and when sufficient evidence supports the change, never in the middle of a drawdown. A trading plan template is a pre-structured framework into which you add your goals, entry and exit rules, routines and risk limits. The template in this guide can be copied directly from the page and completed row by row. A profitable trading plan combines positive-expectancy rules, firm risk limits and the discipline to execute both consistently. The eight-step process, copy-ready template and completed example in this guide provide everything you need to build the first version; what remains is filling in your own numbers and following them. In my experience, a plan proves its real value during your worst week, not your best one. Review and revise it at scheduled times. Never rewrite the rules in the middle of a losing day simply to justify the next trade. Before using the plan with real money, run it through a full demo cycle and record every result. That final test will show whether the rules are clear, practical and robust enough to follow under live market conditions. Lee W. is a seasoned professional trader with over 10 years of experience. Passionate about sharing valuable expertise and unique market insights, Lee W. now serves as an external and independent market analyst for RADEX MARKETS. Reviewed by RADEX MARKETS Risk Warning Trading derivatives and leveraged products carries a high level of risk, including the risk of losing substantially more than your initial investment. Related concepts:
Thursday proved to be another rough day for precious metals. Gold was unable to build on the positive momentum of the prior two sessions, opting instead to fall back below $4,400 per ounce. Silver likewise failed to stay above $70 an ounce, falling by 4.6% yesterday when all was said and done. Gold investors have been waiting all month for safe-haven narratives to kick in but have instead been saddled with a 15% drawdown. This is by no means unprecedented. In times of crisis or uncertainty, institutions will often relinquish their most liquid positions first, which certainly include precious metals. A bigger driver however is the shift towards yield-bearing assets, which unfortunately do not include gold or silver. Interest rates on the dollar are now expected to rise this year, making the greenback a far more attractive prospect than it was just a few short weeks ago. Central banks rapidly started to increase their holdings of gold after the conflict in Ukraine, but such purchases have begun to slow down recently. Most notably, the central bank of the Republic of Turkey has sold 60 tonnes of gold so far this month, while the Russian central bank has also lightened its stores since the start of the year, albeit to a very minor extent. Crude oil prices are once again in the three-figure range, with Brent Crude futures climbing to $106 per barrel and WTI rising to $93. Markets at large continue to fluctuate in line with the perceived likelihood of a resolution in Iran, which has so far remained elusive. In the US, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite indices closed at yearly lows yesterday, with the latter losing 2.4% during Thursday’s session. The Nasdaq has now lost over 10% from recent highs, placing the index in correction territory. One of the major contributors to the downward pressure was the selloff in Meta Platforms (META), which lost an impressive 8% yesterday. In a landmark trial, Meta, along with Google, was found liable for damages in a social media addiction lawsuit. The social media sphere in general will be feeling the pressure, with the verdict already being called a “big tobacco moment”, referring to a legal judgement whereby an industry is held accountable for knowingly causing public harm. #OIL #IRAN #META
A potential ceasefire between the US and Iran is beginning to emerge. According to some reports, negotiations are progressing in the right direction and markets are cautiously optimistic that hostilities may be drawing to a close. Oil prices have dropped significantly so far this week, allowing the Brent Crude benchmark to drop below the psychologically important $100 level. Brent futures are currently trading for $99, while WTI futures are down to $88 per barrel. West Texas prices were further assuaged by an unexpected buildup in US crude inventories last week, while the strategic petroleum reserve has remained stable at just over half of maximum capacity. Although nothing concrete has been established as of yet, markets have welcomed the recent developments with open arms. The Japanese Nikkei 225 index opened notably higher this morning, gaining 3% before pulling back. The Korean Kospi index, which suffered a number of brutal price swings over the past two weeks, likewise made a prudent move higher as the session got underway. US stock markets have been hammered over the past few weeks, but the major indices are once again on the front foot so far this week and futures contracts are in the green going into today’s session. The whiplash in precious metals continues. Monday saw a huge selloff in gold, pushing prices all the way down to $4,100 per ounce, but the move quickly reversed course after sweeping the lows and precious metals have since gained a measure of positive momentum. Gold and silver both pushed higher this morning, with the former climbing back up to $4,600 per ounce, while silver managed to claw its way back over $74 after seeing lows of just $61 on Monday. Cryptocurrencies meanwhile continue to exhibit a rare display of stability, with Bitcoin content to hover around $70,000 per coin. Despite all the surrounding commotion, Bitcoin has remained within a relatively tight price band for the past six weeks, reacting very little to developments in Iran. Cryptocurrencies are normally all too happy to plummet at the first sign of trouble, so the current behaviour suggests a fundamental change in market structure. #OIL #GOLD #CEASEFIRE
The correction in precious metals continues. Gold fell by over $500 per ounce last week, a decline of over 10% and its third consecutive weekly loss. The precious metal dropped a further 3% this morning to around $4,300 and is now on track to close its ninth consecutive day in the red. Gold-backed ETFs are contributing heavily to the drop after seeing billions of dollars in outflows over the past several weeks. The long gold trade was perhaps somewhat overcrowded leading up to the strikes on Iran, which provided an apt excuse for many to book profits. The psychologically important $5,000 threshold seems further away than ever and as of this morning the precious metal is no longer in the green for the year. The same can be said of silver, which now sits at $65 per ounce after having lost an eye-watering 15% last week. Cryptocurrencies are holding up surprisingly well in comparison, with Bitcoin making marginal gains this morning and pushing over $68,000 per coin. The dollar has suspended its relentless push higher for the time being, causing the DXY to stabilise around 99.5. A number of Asian economies are beginning to feel the pinch of being cut off from Middle Eastern oil, pressuring their respective currencies. The yen flirted with 160 last week and is on the back foot again this morning, prompting Japanese monetary authorities to signal their readiness to step in to defend their currency should the need arise. Over in South Korea, the won fell to a 17-year low this morning, touching 1,511 per US dollar. Events surrounding Iran are weighing equally heavily on Japanese and Korean stock markets, with the Nikkei 225 falling as much as 5% at one point this morning and the Kospi index once again approaching circuit breaker territory with a 6% drop shortly after the opening bell. US futures are down around half a percent at the time of writing. The spread between Brent Crude and WTI remains wide open, with the former trading for $112 per barrel and the latter trailing behind at a comparatively modest $98. The difference between the two benchmarks is a useful illustration of the disruption to oil flows in the region, which remain severe. Iraq recently shut down production at all foreign-operated oil fields because no tankers were made available to pick up the precious cargo. Local oil storage has hit maximum capacity and there is simply nowhere left to store what is being extracted out of the ground. As per the latest ultimatum presented to Iran, the regime has around 24 hours left to open the Strait of Hormuz, failing which the US will launch attacks on Iranian power plants and electrical grids. With the deadline fast approaching, oil markets are braced for volatility. #BRENT #GOLD #IRAN
Yesterday’s FOMC meeting provided more drama than most traders were expecting. The Federal Reserve elected to leave interest rates unchanged, to the surprise of no one, but during the subsequent press conference, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell floated the dreaded possibility of a rate hike. This would have been unthinkable just a few months ago, but the threat of inflation resulting from a prolonged conflict in the Middle East has changed the playing field. A rate hike remains unlikely in the immediate future, but the mere mention of such has sent shockwaves throughout financial markets. Precious metals were among the hardest hit. Gold plummeted all the way down to $4,500 per ounce at one point before rebounding to $4,650 by the daily close, a loss of 3.5% on the day. The price action in silver was even more extreme, with the white metal dipping to just $65 per ounce before climbing back up to $72 by the end of the session. The dollar currency index also took a decent hit, falling from 100.2 to 99.1 on Thursday, while US indices incurred only minor losses. Oil markets continue to provide entertainment. The Brent Crude index shot all the way up to $114 yesterday before settling lower, but the more interesting point of note is the widening gap between Brent and WTI. Seaborne futures are currently trading for around $105 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate futures are a mere $92 in comparison. The last time the spread was this high was over a decade ago. Brent Crude remains at the mercy of acute supply disruptions in the Middle East, which are affecting oil deliveries around the world and adding a considerable premium to prices. WTI meanwhile is relatively isolated from such concerns, with supplies remaining stable and contracts being priced accordingly. The lack of oil shipments out of the Persian Gulf has forced many countries to pursue alternative procurement options. Japanese refineries have stepped up purchases of Midland crude to cover the shortfall in regular deliveries, while other countries in Asia are also diversifying their oil suppliers. #FOMC #GOLD #OIL
