WIADOMOŚCI Z RYNKU FOREX

The price of crude oil continues to dominate the headlines, for good reason. After visiting highs of $115 on Monday, the Brent Crude benchmark crashed all the way to $80 yesterday following remarks from a number of officials saying that the conflict in Iran was nearing an end. Prices are currently in the mid-to-high $80 range but are still extremely volatile, while markets remain sensitive to any new developments. The ongoing conflict has not yet fundamentally changed the global oil dynamic; the International Energy Agency still has 1.2 billion barrels of oil in reserves, plus another 600 million held in industry inventories, while oil producers in the US and around the world have made no steps to increase output or make new drilling commitments. Despite the current throttle on oil deliveries, supply and demand still favour the former, putting a cap on crude prices for the time being. A drawn-out conflict will immediately invalidate this stance however, hence the wild price swings observed over the last few days. With all eyes trained on oil markets, precious metals have been all but forgotten in recent days. Gold has been relatively stable in light of Middle Eastern events, content to be ignored for now and maintaining its position around $5,200 per ounce. Silver has been the better performer so far this week, rising around 4% since Monday and pushing over $88 per ounce on Tuesday. It is worth pointing out that gold and silver are both down relative to their pre-conflict levels, suggesting the strength of the dollar remains the dominant force in precious metals. Speaking of which, there is only one week to go before the next FOMC meeting on the 18th of March and interest rate traders are now pricing in a rate hold with 99% certainty. As for economic data releases, the first batch of US inflation data is only hours away from hitting the newswires, while the more impactful PCE price index will arrive on Friday. #OIL #SILVER #IRAN

Tensions in the Middle East stepped up a notch over the weekend. Israeli and American strikes on Iranian targets continue, prompting retaliatory counterattacks on surrounding countries. Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar and the UAE have now all reported attacks, including against airports, desalination plants, and of course, oil facilities. The sustained disruption to oil outflows has forced many oil exporters in the region to curb production. Iraq has been the hardest hit so far, with production falling 60% compared to pre-conflict levels. With the Strait of Hormuz still off limits, many oil terminals in the Persian Gulf are essentially cut off from the rest of the world, forcing affected countries to shut in large amounts of crude. The supply shock has sent oil prices through the roof, with the Brent Crude and WTI benchmarks both hitting $115 per barrel this morning, while local Murban Crude oil is now north of $120. Markets are obviously not thrilled with the prospect of higher oil prices, as evidenced by Asian stock markets this morning. The Nikkei 225 fell over 7% at one point earlier today, while the Korean Kospi index once again hit circuit breakers after tumbling more than 8% during the morning trading session. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index is somewhat more isolated, losing around 2.5% so far today. The situation in currencies is even more dire, with the Korean Won falling to its weakest level since 2009 and the Japanese Yen flirting with yearly lows against the US dollar. Sustained flows into the greenback have lifted the DXY to 99.5 as of this morning. As the day progresses, attentions will inevitably turn to European and US stock markets, futures for which are currently down around 2%. Last Friday’s NFP report turned out to be shockingly bad for the US labour market, revealing a loss of 92 thousand jobs in February. Markets were understandably distracted by events in Iran at the time, but the focus may return to fundamentals this week, with several key data points on the economic calendar. Wednesday lays the groundwork for the latest reading on US inflation, courtesy of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which is predicted to hit 2.5% YoY in February. The arguably more important reading arrives on Friday however, in the form of the PCE Price Index, which is held in higher regard by the Federal Reserve. Markets have largely written off the possibility of a rate cut during the next FOMC meeting or even the one after that, but a surprise fall in inflation, coupled with bad employment figures, could quickly shift expectations. Friday promises to be a busy day with regard to US economic data, as it will also see the publication of durable good orders, personal income growth, JOLTs job openings and Michigan Consumer Sentiment. Not much in terms of earnings this week, with the exception of Oracle (ORCL) on Tuesday and Adobe (ADBE) on Thursday, both after market close. #OIL #IRAN #DXY

The ongoing conflict in Iran continues to dominate the newswires. Shipping in and out of the region has yet to resume, lifting crude oil to fresh highs. The Brent Crude index now sits at $85 per barrel, while WTI futures, which had lagged behind until yesterday, are quickly catching up, pushing over $80 per barrel as of this morning. No concrete measures have yet been implemented to ensure the safe passage of ships through the Strait of Hormuz, and so the oil trade remains in limbo for the time being. An interesting result of the turmoil in the Middle East is that the United States government has temporarily authorised India to resume purchases of oil from Russia, a delivery path that had previously been subject to strict sanctions. US stock markets have fared far better than their European and Asian counterparts so far this week, but the negative sentiment finally made a sizeable dent in the Dow Jones index yesterday. The Dow lost 1.6% on Thursday, erasing all gains in 2026 and putting the index in the red for the year. Goldman Sachs (GS) was the worst performer of the group of 30, falling 3.7% yesterday, while the technology contingent of the index emerged generally unscathed. The S&P 500 closed 0.6% in the red, while the Nasdaq Composite lost around 0.3%, reflecting the outperformance of technology stocks. In particular, Broadcom (AVGO) spiked almost 5% yesterday after the company’s first-quarter report impressed investors with increased sales figures. Although geopolitical events are in the driving seat for now, traders would do well to remember that non-farm payrolls are dropping later today. The US dollar remains strong with the DXY above 99 again this morning, as investors thoroughly abandon any hope of an upcoming interest rate cut. The next FOMC meeting is less than two weeks away and is fully expected to result in a rate hold. Many market participants are expecting an uptick in inflation due to increased oil prices, but should the rally in crude suddenly collapse, such narratives will change equally quickly. #BRENT #DJI #NFP

Uncertainty in the Middle East lingers on and markets are beginning to realise what an actual risk-off environment looks like. Since the start of the week, the US dollar has been the uncontested safe haven, pushing higher against all other currencies and lifting the DXY back above 99 for the first time since January. The Pound Sterling now sits at yearly lows against the dollar and is currently flirting with $1.33, while the Euro is struggling to remain above $1.16. The Japanese yen meanwhile is approaching 158 and even the Swiss Franc has depreciated significantly against the greenback over the last few days. Traders are desperately looking for a safe harbour and so far, markets have unanimously agreed that the Greenback is the place to be. To many, the bigger surprise has been the underperformance of precious metals. Gold plummeted on Tuesday, falling to $5,000 per ounce before undergoing a minor bounce which saw the precious metal close the day 4.4% in the red. Silver performed even worse, falling 8% to a daily close of $82 per ounce. A similar story for platinum and palladium, which fell 9% and 7% respectively. While metals are performing better this morning, the renewed strength in the dollar has dampened upwards momentum. Stock markets around the world are reacting very poorly to ongoing events, but none more so than those in the Far East. The Japanese Nikkei 225 lost 3% yesterday and has fallen a further 4% so far today. In South Korea meanwhile, the KOSPI Composite hit circuit breakers earlier in the day, with the index dipping as low as 12% at one point. The selloff is one of the largest in decades and follows a 7% decline in the index on Tuesday. Major European indices lost around 3% yesterday, while their US counterparts managed to contain the damage at 1% losses at most. In what is increasingly strange behaviour, Bitcoin has not reacted to current events in the slightest. Cryptocurrency markets remain completely unfazed by developments in Iran, turning instead to potential progress on the market structure bill in the US, which has been dragged through a quagmire of modifications over the last few weeks. Yesterday, President Trump finally lost patience with the banking representatives who have stalled the bill, urging Congress to pass the legislation “ASAP”. One of the major sticking points of the conflict remains the total standstill of oil and gas shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, which has increased the price of both resources substantially. The Brent Crude index is now north of $82 per barrel, while WTI is up to $75, but such increases pale in comparison to the massive surge in LNG prices over the last few days. Dutch TTF natural gas futures spiked from €32/MWh last Friday to €54/MWh last night, while other regional benchmarks have also seen massive surges. Europe and Asia are already feeling the pinch of increased energy prices and if the strait remains closed for much longer, both regions will have to entertain alternative procurement measures. Shipments in and out of the Persian Gulf have halted in part because insurance companies have cancelled war risk coverage for vessels travelling through it. President Trump has responded to this directly by promising that the US will provide risk insurance and protection for all shipping in the region, although shipments have not resumed as of yet. #DXY #IRAN #KOSPI

Fibonacci retracement is one of those tools every forex trader hears about in their first few months, right after they learn what a pip is, why spreads matter, and that revenge‑trading is a quick way to donate money to the market. But despite how common Fibonacci is, most new traders still look at those coloured lines on their charts and think, “Brilliant… but what does it actually mean?” This guide breaks down Fibonacci retracement in the simplest way possible: what it is, how it works, and how you can use it to find smarter entries, exits, and stop‑loss levels. All explained in your signature style, friendly, clear, and with a gentle sprinkle of humour. Fibonacci retracement is a technical analysis tool that uses key percentage levels (23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8%, and 78.6%) to identify where a market may temporarily reverse before continuing its trend. These percentages come from the famous Fibonacci sequence, a series of numbers found everywhere in nature, from flower petals to galaxy spirals. Traders use them to map out potential support and resistance levels. In forex trading, you draw a Fibonacci retracement from a major swing high to a major swing low (or vice‑versa). Your charting platform then automatically plots the Fibonacci levels. Markets rarely move in straight lines. Even strong trends have pullbacks. Fibonacci helps traders estimate where these pullbacks might end. Newbie traders often struggle with entries. Fibonacci levels offer structure, for example, entering at the 38.2% or 61.8% retracement during a trend. Rather than placing stops randomly, traders can tuck them safely beyond a Fibonacci level. When a Fibonacci level overlaps with a trendline, moving average, or previous support/resistance, it adds strength to that level. Step 1: Identify the Trend Uptrend → draw Fibonacci from swing low to swing high. Downtrend → draw Fibonacci from swing high to swing low. Step 2: Wait for Price to Pull Back You’re looking for the pullback to approach one of the major levels (38.2%, 50%, 61.8%). Step 3: Look for Confirmation Examples: Step 4: Plan Your Entry For newbies, the 38.2% and 61.8% levels are the most reliable. Step 5: Set Your Stop‑Loss Place the stop slightly beyond the next Fibonacci level. Step 6: Choose Your Take‑Profit Common choices: Markets are driven by human behaviour. Fibonacci levels tend to work because so many traders watch them. When enough traders expect a reversal at 61.8%… often, the market obliges. If EUR/USD rallies from 1.0800 to 1.1000, then begins to pull back, Fibonacci levels would be: If price shows bullish signals near 1.0900 or 1.0876, these could be potential entries. Many new traders start on the 1-minute or 5-minute chart, usually because it feels exciting. But Fibonacci becomes far more reliable on the higher timeframes (H1, H4, Daily). Once you understand how the levels behave on higher charts, you can then apply them on lower ones with greater confidence. Fibonacci retracement is not a standalone system. The more structure you add, the stronger the analysis. Examples of good structure: If the market is choppy and directionless, Fibonacci becomes little more than decoration. Not every pullback ends at a neat little Fib level. Sometimes price will: This is where confirmation tools become essential. Candlestick patterns like hammers, engulfing candles, or pin bars are especially useful. If the market is stuck in a sideways range, Fibonacci retracement loses its bite. Trends are where it truly shines because pullbacks are cleaner, predictable, and often repeatable. Even though this article is aimed at beginners, it helps to understand where you can take Fibonacci as your trading matures. This happens when: When multiple forms of analysis point to the same place, traders call this “confluence.” These areas tend to attract stronger reactions. Extensions help you estimate future price targets. The common levels are: These are incredibly useful for planning TP1, TP2, and TP3. A level that shows up on both the H4 and Daily chart is far more powerful than a level that only appears on a 5-minute chart. Multi-timeframe Fibonacci analysis helps traders: If a pullback goes beyond the 78.6% level, it can signal that the trend may be losing strength. Many experienced traders watch the 78.6–100% area for signs of a possible reversal. To expand your understanding and help you move toward that 1500‑word mark, here are beginner‑friendly Fibonacci strategies you can actually use. This is the most commonly used Fibonacci approach. How it works: Why it works: You’re entering with the trend at a discounted price, rather than chasing moves. This adds structure for traders who want higher-probability entries. Steps: Why it’s powerful: Two different technical tools pointing to the same price level create a stronger reaction zone. Newbie traders often use the 50 EMA or 200 EMA as dynamic trend indicators. How to combine it: Bonus tip: If price cuts straight through both the EMA and Fib level, stay out. The market is probably shifting direction. Many beginners think the 78.6% retracement means the trend is over. Not necessarily. This deeper Fibonacci level often acts as the last defence of a trend. How to use it: Why it works: Institutions sometimes sweep liquidity past the 61.8% level before reversing, the 78.6% often catches this. To bring your analysis closer to what experienced traders do, here are some advanced yet easy-to-understand concepts. Professionals often draw Fibonacci retracements from multiple swings. If two or more Fibonacci levels overlap, the market tends to treat that area with more respect. If a pullback is extremely shallow (does not even reach 23.6%), the trend may be too strong or too unstable for a safe entry. If a pullback goes beyond 78.6% with no sign of reversal, the trend may be weakening. Rather than randomly choosing TP levels, pros use: One of the biggest challenges for new traders is rushing into trades. Fibonacci naturally slows your decision‑making because it requires waiting for the market to reach a proper discount or premium. This alone saves many traders from blowing their account. Let’s say GBP/USD trends upwards from 1.2500 to 1.2700. You draw your Fibonacci levels from: Your Fib levels would be roughly: Scenario: Price pulls back into the 50% zone, forms a bullish engulfing candle, and the RSI starts rising from oversold territory. Your plan: A clean, structure‑based Fibonacci trade. One of the biggest challenges for new traders isn’t strategy, it’s behaviour. Fibonacci retracement naturally improves trading habits by introducing structure. To become a skilled trader, you must know when a tool should not be used. This is where many newbies struggle. Price often reacts at Fibonacci levels because traders expect it to. This creates a self-fulfilling effect. Smart money often accumulates positions in the 50%–61.8% zone. That’s why these levels are so widely respected. The more traders watch Fibonacci levels, the stronger they become. Markets are driven by collective behaviour, not randomness. Let’s break down a more detailed example to help you visualise the process. Step 1: Identify the Trend EUR/USD is in a clear uptrend, making higher highs and higher lows. Step 2: Select the Swing High and Low Step 3: Draw Fibonacci Low → High Your key retracement levels form automatically. Step 4: Wait for the Pullback Price retraces to 38.2% and forms a hammer candle. Step 5: Confirm With Other Tools Step 6: Enter the Trade Long entry at 1.0924 (38.2%). Step 7: Stop-Loss Placement Below the 50% level at 1.0900. Step 8: Choose Your Take-Profit Fibonacci retracement is one of the most accessible and powerful tools for new forex traders. It gives structure, teaches discipline, and helps remove emotion from your trading decisions. Used correctly, and combined with solid market structure, candlestick confirmation, and basic indicators, Fibonacci retracement can dramatically improve your timing and trade accuracy. Remember: it’s not a magic system. It’s a guide. But for a new trader, it’s one of the best guides you can learn to use early in your trading journey. Fibonacci retracement is a simple yet powerful tool for newbie forex traders. It helps structure your trades, identify smarter entries, and build confidence in reading the market.

The joint strike on Iran is understandably dominating market sentiment this morning. Despite the well-telegraphed build-up of American hardware across the Gulf in recent weeks, Saturday’s intervention took many by surprise, resulting in sharp market movements earlier today. Gold and silver opened with sizeable gaps to the upside this morning, but quickly sought to close them as the session got underway. Gold swiftly came within a few dollars of $5,400 after market open, while silver explored highs of $96 per ounce before retracing the move. Both metals performed admirably last week, with silver in particular gaining 11% by Friday’s close. Despite the weekend’s dramatic events, markets are not fully committed to a particular direction of travel as of yet. If anything, it appears that many market participants were expecting a larger, more drawn-out conflict, leaving traders somewhat confused as to their next course of action. US stock futures are down, with contracts on all major indices slipping around 0.8%, while the US dollar edged slightly higher against other major currencies. Asian stock markets opened lower this morning, forcing the Nikkei 225 down 1.5% upon hearing the opening bell. Over in cryptocurrencies meanwhile, the weekend’s events have left markets almost completely unfazed, with Bitcoin hovering around $66,000 per coin. For all the volatility in precious metals, it is nothing compared to the price action in oil markets. Subject as they are to local pressures, Brent futures smashed through $80 per barrel earlier today before settling back to $76 after the dust settled. The more isolated WTI benchmark remains around $70 at the time of writing. While Iran is a significant producer of oil in the region, the bulk of its output is subject to sanctions and is therefore sold via obscure channels that do not necessarily impact global pricing benchmarks. The bigger problem is the Persian Gulf, and in particular the Strait of Hormuz, on which Iran borders and exerts a certain degree of influence. Roughly 30% of all seaborne oil flows through the Strait, the majority of which is destined for East Asia. As a precautionary measure, shipping companies have ordered their fleets to avoid the Strait for now, leaving hundreds of vessels anchored at sea. According to Oman, an oil tanker flying a flag of convenience was attacked on Sunday morning, resulting in the evacuation of all crew members. Markets remain on high alert for any further developments. Geopolitics aside, there are a number of important events on the economic calendar this week. The Institute for Supply Management will deliver the February PMI figures for the US manufacturing sector later today, followed on Wednesday by a reading on the services sector. Wednesday will also provide an insight into Chinese manufacturing and services, followed by the ADP employment change later in the day. The big employment news of the week arrives on Friday however, with a return to the regularly scheduled non-farm payroll report, which is currently forecasting 60 thousand new jobs. Not much is going on with regard to earnings this week, with the exception of Berkshire Hathaway (BRK) on Monday and Broadcom (AVGO) after market close on Wednesday. Until then, all eyes are on the Middle East. #Crude #Gold #Iran