WIADOMOŚCI Z RYNKU FOREX

Christmas in the forex market is a strange time of year. While most people are wrapping presents, eating their bodyweight in chocolate, and pretending to enjoy office parties, traders are staring at charts that suddenly look… well, half asleep. Banks are closed, institutional desks are running on skeleton crews, and the big liquidity providers are off somewhere skiing, yet the forex market stubbornly refuses to take a holiday. The end result? A market that’s technically open but operating on fumes. Price action slows down, spreads widen, and even the most well-behaved pairs can start acting like they’ve had one too many mulled wines. For new traders, this can be confusing. For experienced traders, it’s simply “Ah yes, it’s Christmas again.” But here’s the twist: although liquidity drops sharply during the Christmas period, the conditions create unique opportunities for traders who understand what’s happening behind the scenes. When volume disappears, price often behaves differently, slower at times, erratic at others, and if you know how to read these thin markets, you can take advantage of setups that don’t typically appear during the rest of the year. In this article, we’re going to explore exactly why the Christmas period is different, what price action usually looks like, and how you can navigate, and profit from, these holiday markets without blowing your account while everyone else is watching It’s a Wonderful Life or Home Alone. In forex trading, liquidity refers to how easily a currency pair can be bought or sold without dramatically changing its price. During normal market conditions, the major pairs, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, are incredibly liquid because banks, hedge funds, institutions, and algo desks are constantly pouring orders into the market. Think of it like a busy motorway: high traffic, lots of movement, and everything flows smoothly. But during the Christmas period, that motorway becomes an empty road at 3 a.m. Most banks are closed. Institutional traders are already on holiday. Market makers reduce their activity. That means there are fewer buy and sell orders, so every price movement has more impact than usual. The core principle is simple: when liquidity falls, volatility behaves differently, sometimes shrinking into slow, sleepy ranges, and other times snapping into sharp spikes because even small orders can shove price around. Low liquidity also affects practical trading conditions: It’s important because understanding liquidity helps traders avoid overreacting to strange Christmas movements. What looks like “the start of a major trend” may simply be the market’s version of drifting off after too much turkey. Yet, despite the quirks, this environment can be incredibly profitable if you know how to adapt, and that’s what we’ll explore next. If you’ve ever watched the charts during Christmas week, you’ll know the price action has a very particular vibe. In normal market conditions, forex behaves like a busy marketplace, noise, movement, energy. But during Christmas? It’s more like a quiet village pub just before last call. Things slow down… until someone slams the door and everything jumps. In forex trading, holiday price action tends to fall into two distinct behaviours: calm ranges and random spikes, sometimes switching between them with no warning whatsoever. Because liquidity is thin, price often moves sideways in tight consolidation zones. This can frustrate traders expecting big moves, but it’s fantastic for traders who know how to range-trade and look for predictable bounce points. Here’s the fun part: with so few participants in the market, it doesn’t take much to cause a large candle. A small institutional order, an algo hiccup, or even a late year rebalance can shove the price several dozen pips in seconds. These rogue-wave spikes are common around: They look dramatic on the chart, but they often fade quickly because there isn’t enough follow-through to carry them into sustained trends. Christmas markets are a playground for fakeouts. Price pokes out of a range, catches traders sleeping, triggers stops… and then snaps right back inside like nothing happened. This happens because breakouts rely on volume, and during the holidays, volume simply isn’t there. You’ll often see: This isn’t “market manipulation”, it’s just what happens when there aren’t enough resting orders on the book to absorb sudden buying or selling pressure. In short: Christmas price action is a blend of sleepy sideways movement and random bursts of chaos. You’d think that if banks are closed, institutional traders are on ski trips, and retail traders are too busy eating mince pies, the forex market would simply lie down and take a nap. But surprisingly, the charts still move, sometimes more dramatically than expected. Why? Because reduced participation doesn’t mean zero participation. And the traders (and algorithms) who remain active over Christmas can still create meaningful price shifts. Here’s what keeps the market alive during the holiday lull: In forex trading, algorithmic trading refers to automated systems executing trades based on preset rules. Unlike humans, algos don’t care about Christmas, office parties, or family gatherings. They simply run 24/7, following their instructions. Examples of algos that stay active: ● arbitrage algorithms ● trend-following bots ● liquidity-provision modelsWith fewer humans trading, algorithms have more influence, meaning even minor signals can create outsized moves. Just because Santa’s coming doesn’t mean economic data stops. Things like: ● inflation reports ● GDP data ● central bank speeches ● employment numbers...can drop right in the middle of low-volume conditions, causing exaggerated reactions. A news candle that would normally move 20 pips can suddenly move 80 pips simply because there’s no liquidity to absorb it. Every December, funds and institutions rebalance portfolios for: ● performance reporting ● tax efficiency ● risk management ● window dressingThese adjustments can cause sudden flows in major currency pairs… even if the desks operating them are on skeleton crew. This is one reason why you’ll often see surprise strength or weakness leading into year-end, it’s not “Santa rally magic.” It’s institutional bookkeeping. The core principle is simple: When fewer orders sit in the book, price moves further with less effort. Think of price as a car rolling down a hill. Normally it hits traffic (order volume) and slows down. But during Christmas? The road is empty, so even a small push can send it flying.This explains:● long wicks● sudden reversals● outsized movements during typically quiet sessions. New traders love the idea of “free time over the holidays = more time to trade.” But without real liquidity, retail activity can distort price slightly more than usual. Retail alone can’t move the market much……but in December, their activity becomes more noticeable. Most traders avoid the markets during Christmas because the low liquidity feels unpredictable. But hidden inside the sleepy December charts are some of the cleanest, most reliable trading opportunities you’ll see all year. In forex trading, the term range refers to price bouncing repeatedly between support and resistance levels. During Christmas, ranges appear everywhere - and they behave beautifully. The market isn’t trying to trend. It’s simply bouncing, and if you embrace the boredom, the setups are surprisingly reliable. Example: EUR/USD might spend three days drifting between 1.0930 and 1.0970, offering multiple low-risk entries from both sides. It's not thrilling… but profitable doesn’t always look exciting. In trading, a fakeout happens when price briefly breaks a key level before snapping back inside. During Christmas, fakeouts are almost guaranteed because breakouts need volume, and there isn’t any. These fakeouts are essentially the market whispering: “Relax… I’m not actually going anywhere.” How to capitalise on fakeouts: This strategy works beautifully during the holidays because thin order books exaggerate moves that can’t sustain themselves. Why this works: In low liquidity, a handful of orders can push price above a key level. But when no new buyers join the move, the breakout collapses almost instantly. Most holiday breakouts fail, but when one holds, it can create a powerful multi-day move. These are the breakouts that institutional traders often call “quiet accumulation” or “stealth repositioning.” Clues you’re seeing a genuine breakout: Why these breakouts matter: Institutions sometimes quietly reposition for Q1 during the low-liquidity period, because it allows them to move size with less market impact. So when a real breakout holds, it can mark the beginning of January’s major trend. How to trade it: These moves don’t happen every year… But when they do, they are some of the cleanest trades traders catch all winter. As a result: Christmas isn’t just a quiet market. It’s a different market, and if you stop expecting normal price action and start embracing what December specialises in, there are plenty of opportunities hiding in plain sight. In forex trading, risk management refers to the methods traders use to protect their capital and control the impact of losing trades. During Christmas, risk management becomes even more important because the market doesn’t behave in its usual structured way. Think of it like driving on an icy road, you can still get where you’re going, but you need to adjust your speed, your expectations, and your grip on the steering wheel. Here’s how to protect yourself (and your account) during the festive low-liquidity season. Low liquidity = bigger, faster spikes. Meaning? Your normal lot size might suddenly feel about three sizes too large. A smaller position helps you: It’s simple: when the market thins out, so should your position size. Spreads naturally widen during holidays because fewer liquidity providers are online. This means: If you normally use tight stops, you might need to give price a little extra breathing room. Not too much, just enough so you’re not stopped out by a spread that resembles a Christmas jumper: wider than you expected. In low liquidity, every spike looks meaningful… but most aren’t. They’re just thin-market noise. Avoid: During Christmas, patience beats bravado every time. Christmas ranges are reliable, but they’re also tight. Holding runners forever rarely works because: Take partials or close your full trade at logical levels. Treat it like a seasonal sale, get in, get your profit, get out. Breakouts in December behave like New Year’s resolutions: They start strong, but most fail quickly. Only trade breakouts that show clear commitment: If price looks unsure… assume it’s a fake out until proven otherwise. This might be the most important part of holiday risk management. Some days, especially around Christmas Eve, Christmas Day, and the period between Boxing Day and New Year’s, simply aren’t worth trading. Conditions are too thin, too unpredictable, or too sluggish. Most markets and brokers take the day off altogether. And if you’re sat at the charts on Christmas Day? We need to have a long chat about life choices! The bottom line: Christmas markets can be profitable, but only if you approach them with caution, smaller size, and a willingness to take what the market gives, not what you wish it would give. Here’s the truth many traders don’t like to hear: You don’t have to trade during Christmas. The market will still be here after the turkey, after the family arguments, and after you promise for the tenth time that you’re not checking charts, “just replying to a message.” But let’s break it down properly. In forex trading, choosing when to trade is just as important as choosing what to trade. And the Christmas period is a perfect example of a time when the market conditions are so unusual that traders need to ask themselves a simple but important question: “Is this worth it?” Sometimes yes. Sometimes no. Below is my honest breakdown. Here’s the balanced answer: Trade during Christmas if… Avoid trading during Christmas if… There’s absolutely nothing wrong with taking a complete break. In fact, some of the best traders shut everything down, reset, and prepare for January, one of the strongest trading months of the year. The honest truth: Christmas trading isn’t bad… it’s just different. Some traders thrive in it. Others struggle. The key is knowing which type you are and never treating the December market like a normal one. By the time Christmas rolls around, many traders assume the market has packed its bags, switched on “Out of Office,” and left us with charts that look like they’re running on 10% battery. But the truth is far more interesting. The Christmas period isn’t a dead market; it’s a different market. The rules change. The behaviour changes. The opportunities change. And once you understand the rhythm of low-liquidity conditions, the festive season becomes far less mysterious… and far more tradable. Here’s what you should walk away with: Forex doesn’t stop for Christmas, it just behaves differently. If you’re prepared, disciplined, and willing to adapt, you can trade the holiday period with confidence instead of confusion. And who knows? You might even find a festive setup or two that pays for your Christmas dinner. But remember: Santa isn’t against you. He just prefers traders who don’t blow their accounts on Christmas Eve. Have a great Christmas everyone!

Silver edged to yet another record last Friday, this time hitting an intraday high of $59.33 per ounce before settling for a more modest daily close. The white metal gained 3.5% last week, faring much better than other precious metals. Gold and platinum both closed last week in the red, while palladium fell flat as attentions were focused elsewhere. The rise in silver was coupled with strong inflows into exchange-traded funds, as silver-backed ETFs rose by almost 600 tonnes last week – one of the largest weekly additions so far this year. Speculative demand has led to delivery concerns in the London and Shanghai metals markets, with both hubs struggling to keep their vaults full enough to satisfy the relentless demand. Other precious metals may have been outshined by the performance in silver, but the white metal was not alone in its ascent, finding an unlikely companion in copper, which also rose 3.5% last week to reach $5.35 per pound. Speculation aside, industrial demand is a major contributor to the bid in copper and silver, with some analysts predicting possible supply deficits in 2026. It was a volatile week for crypto, but despite the swings, Bitcoin once again closed the week above $90,000. The macro landscape has not been kind to cryptocurrencies in recent weeks, which have suffered greatly as a result of the lack of liquidity in financial markets. Moreover, because of the US government shutdown, several pieces of crypto-related legislation failed to make any progress over the past two months, making adoption difficult. Despite the lacklustre price action, a number of crypto ETFs continued to see decent inflows over the last few days, to say nothing of the continued accumulation by Michael Saylor’s Strategy. Many market participants are waiting for this week’s Fed vote before deciding on their next move. The wait is almost over; the event that everyone has been waiting for is just around the corner. On Wednesday, the FOMC will render its verdict on the dollar for the final time this year. Markets are pricing in a 25-bps rate cut with almost 90% certainty, so traders can expect fireworks should the decision go any other way. The confidence in such an outcome comes from the fact that several committee members have publicly stated that they would back another rate cut, including New York Fed president John Williams in late November. Because of the US government shutdown, the Fed has been starved of information in the run-up to the latest meeting, making the decision particularly difficult. The FOMC appears to be split down the middle going into this week’s meeting, with members on both sides of the aisle being unusually vocal about their intentions. The Fed is typically united in its decisions, but Wednesday’s vote could see up to three dissents, or possibly even more. Before the main event, markets will receive a couple of minor updates on the health of the US labour market. The weekly ADP employment change will be published on Tuesday, and will be swiftly followed by the latest JOLT survey. Better than nothing, but the data releases are unlikely to sway the Fed either way. On Wednesday, the Bank of Canada will deliver a decision of its own, although traders are thoroughly expecting the body to hold rates on the Canadian dollar steady at 2.25%. The same is true of the Swiss National Bank, which is predicted to maintain a 0% interest rate on the Swiss Franc on Thursday. Later in the day, US PPI data will hit the newswires, although given the timing of the release, it is unlikely to cause much of a splash. #Silver #Bitcoin #Federal

Markets have been a little quieter in recent days. With less than a week to go before the Fed decides the fate of the dollar, traders are keeping an eye on what few pieces of information remain to be released beforehand. The US labour market continues to provide mixed messages, as the ADP employment change revealed an unexpected loss of 32 thousand jobs on Wednesday, but on the other hand, jobless claims have fallen to a three-year low. Other pieces of the puzzle will be published later today, in the form of the September PCE price index and the Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey for December. Given that the PCE data will be two months out of date, it is unlikely to sway opinions too aggressively. The Fed has its own private sources of information, which it will no doubt be leaning on more heavily than it usually would, given the lack of public data in recent weeks. Fed funds traders are still pointing to an 87% chance of a 25-bps cut next Wednesday. Silver came down from record highs yesterday following a bout of profit-taking. After hitting an intra-day high of $58.98 earlier in the week, the white metal fell 2.3% yesterday to close the session at $57.10 per ounce. Gold meanwhile has been completely flat over the past two days, allowing the gold-to-silver ratio to climb to levels that traders are more comfortable with. Platinum and Palladium also experienced minor selling pressure yesterday, but the real story is unfolding in copper, which rose above $5.30 this morning as metals traders anticipate possible supply complications due to tariffs. #Silver #Copper #RateCut

The account still shows a balance, the order goes in, and the platform sends it straight back: not enough free margin. Or a position closes itself while price is nowhere near the stop loss that was set. Both moments end in the same place, which is the row of figures along the bottom of the trading screen that nobody reads properly on the first day. Balance, equity, used margin, free margin, margin level. Five numbers, and most traders can only define the first with any confidence. This article settles what each of them means and how they connect, then runs a single worked account through every section, so the same $5,000 and the same 5% margin requirement turn up in the free margin working, the margin level working and the position size table. By the end you should be able to look at your own platform and say what each figure is doing there. Margin is not a fee. It is a deposit your broker locks when a position opens and releases when it closes, so the money leaves the available pile without ever leaving the account. Whatever stays unlocked is free margin, and that figure alone decides whether another position can be opened. Margin level is equity divided by used margin, multiplied by 100, and it is the percentage that shows how much room the account has left before the broker starts applying its own rules. Want to see used margin and free margin move on a live account? Forex margin is the minimum amount of funds a trader must deposit to open and maintain a leveraged position. It is a portion of the account balance that the broker sets aside as collateral for as long as that trade stays open, and it is returned to the account in full once the position is closed. Margin is not a trading fee or a transaction cost: nothing is charged, nothing is paid to anyone, and the figure is not spent. Why brokers ask for it is straightforward enough. A leveraged position is larger than the money standing behind it, so the broker holds a slice of your funds as security against exposure it is effectively carrying on your behalf. That deposit is what lets an account hold a position larger than the money standing behind it. It also explains why the deposit is set by the broker and differs from one instrument to the next, since an instrument that tends to move further needs more security behind it. Read more：What is forex trading? How it works for beginners The instant a position opens, part of the balance changes job. It is still your money and it is still sitting in the account, but the platform flags it as used margin and it cannot be committed anywhere else until that trade closes. What is left over becomes free margin, and free margin is the figure the platform checks the next time you try to open something. Take the account this article carries throughout: a $5,000 balance, EUR/USD trading at 1.1000, and a margin requirement of 5%. Open one mini lot, which is 10,000 units of the base currency, and the position is worth $11,000 at that price. The deposit locked behind it is 5% of $11,000, or $550. Before opening: balance $5,000, nothing locked, free margin $5,000 After opening: balance $5,000, used margin $550, free margin $4,450 Notice what has not happened. The balance is unchanged. No cost has been incurred and no funds have gone anywhere. The single difference is that $550 of the account now has a job, and the room the account has for anything else has fallen by exactly that much. Leverage is a ratio between the size of a position and the money put up to hold it. Margin is what that ratio comes to in currency once an actual position is named. The two describe one relationship from opposite ends, which is why you can never change one without changing the other. What your platform actually displays is a margin amount, because that is the figure which has to come out of the balance before anything can open. The ratio sits behind it as the conversion. Read more：What Is Leverage in Forex and How Much Should You Use? The margin requirement is the percentage of a position's value that has to be deposited to open it. Brokers set it, and it differs by instrument, so the same account can face one figure on a major currency pair and a higher one on something that moves more. Free margin is account equity minus used margin. It is the part of the account that is not tied to any open position, and it does two jobs at the same time: it is what the platform draws on when you open something new, and it is the cushion that absorbs losses on whatever is already running. Two separate forces move it, and only one of them is obvious. The first is you. Every position opened raises used margin and cuts free margin; every position closed hands it back. The second is price, and that is the one that catches people out: free margin is calculated from equity, which already includes open profit and loss. Run the same account through it. With one mini lot of EUR/USD open and $550 locked, nothing has moved yet, so equity still matches the balance and free margin stands at $4,450. Now let price run 100 pips against the position. On a mini lot each pip is worth $1, so the open loss is $100. Equity = $5,000 − $100 = $4,900 Used margin = $550, unchanged Free margin = $4,900 − $550 = $4,350 Used margin did not move at all, because the deposit is fixed when the position opens and stays put until it closes. Free margin fell by exactly the size of the open loss, and it will keep falling for as long as that loss keeps growing. Which brings up the question readers are usually asking underneath the definition: can free margin be withdrawn? Treat it as room to operate in. What the platform will actually release to your bank is a separate calculation, because part of the figure comes from unrealised profit that has not been banked and is still moving with every tick. The number you read at lunchtime may not be the number that exists when a withdrawal is processed, and the amount that can genuinely be taken out is whatever your platform's withdrawal page states once it has allowed for open positions. These three get confused more often than any other set of figures on the screen, mostly because they agree with each other perfectly whenever nothing is open. Put the worked account against that table and the gap is easy to see. Balance ignores open profit and loss entirely, so it still reads $5,000 while the trade is $100 down. Equity has already recorded the loss at $4,900. Free margin takes equity and subtracts the $550 that is still locked. Most traders make their decisions off the balance, because it is the figure that looks like their money. Margin level is equity divided by used margin, multiplied by 100, expressed as a percentage. It answers a single question: how many times over does the account's current equity cover the deposits already committed? Margin level = (equity ÷ used margin) × 100 A formula on its own settles nothing, and most explanations of margin level stop right there. Substituting real figures into it is where the percentage starts to mean something, so here is the same account, before and after the loss. Position open, price unmoved: ($5,000 ÷ $550) × 100 ≈ 909% After the 100-pip loss: ($4,900 ÷ $550) × 100 ≈ 891%, both rounded to the nearest whole percent Both readings are comfortable, and that is deliberate: the arithmetic is easier to learn on a healthy account than on a distressed one. What the two lines teach is the size of the step. One mini lot, 100 pips against you, and the level slides from 909% to 891%. The figure falls by one of two routes, and each has a different cause behind it. The numerator drops when open losses drag equity down, which is the route every trader expects and watches for. The denominator rises when more positions are opened, because each new trade adds its own deposit to used margin regardless of how the existing ones are doing. That second route is quieter, and it is entirely self-administered. A trader scanning only for losses can be genuinely puzzled by a margin level that fell because of a position size they chose themselves half an hour earlier. Margin level is the ratio of account equity to used margin, shown as a percentage. The higher the percentage, the more buffer the account still holds between its current equity and the deposits keeping its positions open. Work this one backwards from the position rather than forwards from the balance. Take the instrument's margin requirement as a percentage, multiply it by the notional value of the position you are considering, and the product is what gets locked. Subtract that from equity and you have the free margin you would be left holding. Then ask the question that actually decides the trade: can what remains absorb the open loss this position could reasonably run before your exit is reached? Here is the same $5,000 account at the same 5% requirement, set against four position sizes. The column to read is the last one, and the row that teaches the most is the bottom one. A standard lot at this price demands $5,500 of margin against a $5,000 balance, so the deposit is larger than the whole account and the order is rejected before it ever reaches the market., because the requirement is bigger than the money available to meet it. The three rows above it are the ones worth worrying about — precisely because all three go through. Free margin left drops from $4,945 on a micro lot to $4,450 on a mini and $3,900 on two minis; each step up takes another slice out of the same $5,000. Being able to open a position is not the same as being able to hold it. What settles that is the buffer standing behind the trade once the deposit has come out, and the buffer has to cover the cost of getting in as well as the loss the position runs while you wait for your idea to work. Read more：What Is Spread in Forex? Formula, Calculation & Examples A position that leaves $3,900 of free margin can sit through a long run against it and still be there when price comes back. One that leaves almost nothing has already made the decision about your exit before you have. None of this is exotic. Four habits put ordinary accounts under pressure in ordinary weeks, long before anything dramatic happens, and every one of them comes down to reading the wrong figure at the wrong time. The market causes none of those four. They come from not reading the account's own figures as the signals they are. Read more：10 Forex risk management tips every trader should know This is not a sudden event. Every figure covered above has been signalling it in advance, in order, for as long as the position has been open. Where that threshold sits, what the warning looks like when it lands, and what can sensibly be done about it are a subject in their own right, and the article below takes them one at a time. Read more：What is a margin call? Definition, triggers, and how to avoid it Multiply the notional value of the position by the instrument's margin requirement as a percentage, and the product is what gets locked. On the account used throughout this article, one mini lot of EUR/USD at 1.1000 is worth $11,000, and a 5% requirement locks $550. Requirements differ by instrument, so the figure your own platform displays is the one that counts. No single figure works for every account, because a level only means something next to the threshold your broker applies. A higher percentage means a thicker buffer, and that is all it means. What matters is how far the account currently sits from that threshold, which is a distance rather than a target. Free margin and withdrawable balance are two different figures. Free margin includes unrealised profit and loss that keeps moving for as long as positions are open, so it can change between the moment you read it and the moment a withdrawal is processed. The amount that can actually be taken out is whatever your platform's withdrawal page states. Used margin is the portion of the account locked behind positions that are already open. Free margin is the portion still available, either to open something new or to absorb losses on what is running. Together they add up to account equity exactly: on the worked account, the $550 locked plus the $4,350 free is the $4,900 of equity. Losses are calculated against the size of the position rather than the deposit that opened it, so a sharp gap in price can produce a loss larger than the margin locked. Most retail accounts include mechanisms that step in as losses widen, although those are mechanisms rather than guarantees and they depend on there being a price to close at. Retail forex trading is built around opening positions on margin, so there is no version of it that does without. What you can adjust is size: a smaller position locks a smaller deposit, which is why the micro row in the table above leaves so much more of the account free. Four figures, one piece of arithmetic each. The margin locked is notional value times the requirement, which came to $550 on a mini lot of EUR/USD at 1.1000. Equity is the balance adjusted for open profit and loss, $4,900 once that trade was 100 pips down. Free margin is equity minus used margin, $4,350 at the same moment. Margin level is equity divided by used margin times 100, or 891%. All four read off the same account, and all four can be rebuilt from figures your own platform already displays. The check to run before opening is how much buffer is left after the deduction, not whether the confirm button still works. Once the position is running, the level is the figure worth watching, and the balance will be the last one to tell you anything useful. Free margin is the number that gets overlooked most, because it looks like spare money right up until the session where it is the only thing standing between an open loss and a decision made by somebody else. The RADEX MARKETS editorial team consists of seasoned financial professionals and market observers. Dedicated to delivering objective market summaries, macroeconomic insights, and educational content, the team strives to keep traders well-informed in a fast-paced financial environment. Reviewed by RADEX MARKETS Risk Warning Trading derivatives and leveraged products carries a high level of risk, including the risk of losing substantially more than your initial investment. Related concepts:

Cryptocurrencies finally showed signs of life yesterday. Bitcoin gained $5,000 on Tuesday to reach $91,000 by the daily close, and is currently pushing higher still as of this morning. Too early to tell if the move is just another relief bounce, but given the atrocious performance in crypto over the past couple of months, traders will be content with what meagre offerings are available. Due to a fundamental change in market conditions, crypto traders do in fact have reason to be cautiously optimistic. The reopening of the United States government has let loose a significant amount of capital that had been previously tied up, increasing available liquidity, to which the crypto markets are highly sensitive. In the same vein, an even bigger shift occurred on Monday, when the Federal Reserve put an end to quantitative tightening, a policy that had been ongoing since June 2022. The Fed is now officially pursuing a strategy of monetary expansion, which it began by injecting $13.5 billion into the banking system this week – one of the biggest liquidity operations since Covid. On top of all that, markets are expecting the Fed to enact an interest rate cut next week, bringing the target rate down to 3.75% from 4% currently. A perfect liquidity storm if there ever was one. A volatile trading session left silver above $58 per ounce yesterday, meaning the white metal has officially doubled in price since the start of the year. The fundamental reasons for the rise remain unchanged; silver is still in high demand due to supply concerns and is now beginning to thoroughly outpace its golden counterpart. Gold fell back down to $4,200 yesterday, as attentions shifted further up the elemental table. The gold-to-silver ratio is currently at 72, which represents a multi-yearly low not seen since 2021. Silver mining stocks have risen alongside the metal itself, reflecting the fundamental shift in market dynamics. #Bitcoin #Silver #Crypto

It was a record-breaking day for silver last Friday, with prices increasing a staggering 5.6% to reach $56.37 by the weekly close, surpassing the previous all-time high established back in October. The white metal climbed even higher this morning, coming within touching distance of $58 per ounce early in the Asian session. It is hard to believe without looking at the charts, but silver has almost doubled since the start of the year. Precious metals in general had a whale of a time on Friday, with gold, platinum, palladium, and even copper putting in strong performances. While speculation has certainly done its part to raise the tide for precious metals, silver prices have enjoyed the additional quirk of being subject to supply concerns. The previous record high coincided with a supply shock in the London vaults, while the current push is happening alongside a drought in Chinese warehouses. Beyond the obvious supply problems, silver is also facing the possibility of being affected by tariffs, after the US Geological Survey listed the metal as a critical mineral last month. As if that were not enough, a perfect storm emerged last Friday when a data centre supporting the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) suffered a disastrous ten-hour outage due to overheating. The exchange handles everything from stock indices to currencies, bonds, oil futures, interest rates, and of course, precious metals. The disruption affected markets worldwide and left brokers without up-to-date quotes. Prices across many assets remained frozen for several hours, leading to temporarily illiquid market conditions, which were already on the thinner side due to reduced Thanksgiving trading hours. While the exact cause of the data centre failure remains unclear, the CME is now once again fully operational and trading has resumed as normal. The euphoria in silver is in sharp contrast to the despair in cryptocurrencies. Only a few hours into the week and Bitcoin is already 5% in the red, with prices plummeting to $85,000 as of this morning. The rest of the crypto market is faring as one would expect. A poor October led to an atrocious November, which has now opened the door to a dreadful start to December. The move was caused by a large wave of liquidations, with long positions worth over half a billion dollars being wiped out over the past 24 hours. Rough times. Jerome Powell is set to speak late tonight, in what will be the Federal Reserve Chairman’s final comments before the December 10th meeting. Interest rate traders are now looking at an 87% chance of a rate cut next week, at least according to FedWatch. Although Powell’s tenure will not end until May, President Trump has apparently already decided on his replacement, although the decision has not yet been made public. A number of data points will help steer the Fed this week; the first on Wednesday, in the form of the latest ADP employment change; the second on Friday, in the form of the latest PCE price index. Unfortunately, the PCE figures only track the changes recorded in September, so the usefulness of such information is debatable. The government shutdown may be over, but the backlog will take a while longer to clear. Speaking of which, markets will not get an NFP drop on Friday, despite it being the first of the month. Traders will instead have to wait for Tuesday the 16th of December, according to a post from the BLS. All-in-all, not much to grab attentions this week, although the fallout from the CME outage last Friday may prompt a measure of volatility later today. #Silver #Bitcoin #Metals