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Markets are quiet this morning ahead of the more substantive data releases later today. US inflation figures await us this afternoon, as well as the Bank of Canada’s latest interest rate decision. The target rate on the Canadian Dollar is currently 3.75% and the BoC is expected to lower this by another 50 bps. Cracks in the Canadian economy, particularly in the labour market, have prompted the central bank to lower rates four times already this year, putting a lot of pressure on the Loonie. USDCAD is now approaching $1.42, a 7% increase year-to-date. Of course, on the other side of the equation, we only have a week to go before the Fed’s next decision. Interest rate traders are now heavily pricing in a 25-bps cut but this could change if we see CPI figures significantly outside of expectations. Currency traders will also have to contend with the Swiss National Bank and European Central Bank on Thursday, both currently expected to enact 25-bps cuts of their own. Gold finally perked up this week. After a couple of weeks in the doldrums, bullion prices experienced some long-awaited buying pressure, challenging $2,700 an ounce yesterday. The buying came on behalf of the People’s Bank of China, which resumed its accumulation of gold after a six-month hiatus. Silver prices also rose, flirting with $32 an ounce over the last few days. Bitcoin experienced a minor pullback early this week, as did the wider crypto markets.
Non-Farm payroll data revealed few surprises last Friday, most figures falling largely within expectations. The publication ushered in a minor rally in the tech sector, which helped to push the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite to new record highs, while the Dow fell off the boil to close both the day and the week in the red. Gold traders must have been bored to death last week. The precious metal barely moved at all, remaining within the same $40 range before closing the week at $2,633 an ounce. The same could not be said for the crypto markets. Bitcoin finally hit six figures last week, blasting past $100,000 on Thursday during an extremely volatile trading session. The asset retraced soon after only to mount a second challenge this weekend. The battle for $100k rages on. The Dollar stabilised last week, allowing the DXY to reclaim 106 in the quietest week we have seen for currencies in a while. The peace may soon shatter once again however, as the Reserve Bank of Australia, the Bank of Canada, the European Central Bank and the Swiss National Bank are all set to chime in with interest rate decisions over the next three days. The Aussie Dollar is expected to remain at 4.35%, whereas the Loonie is facing a potential 0.5% cut and the Euro and Swiss Franc are looking at a 25bps reduction. Wednesday also delivers the latest round of US CPI data, which the Fed will no doubt pore over with a fine-tooth comb. Fed decision next week.
Strong rallies across the board earlier in the week but markets are now settling down in anticipation of Non-Farm Payrolls later today. The Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite all hit record highs on Wednesday before drifting lower yesterday, tech stocks once again the primary drivers behind the surge. In a historical event, Bitcoin smashed through $100k in the early hours of Thursday morning. Unfortunately the rally did not sustain itself, with prices falling back below six figures less than 24 hours later. Crypto markets have enjoyed an almost continuous upswing since the US election and the jubilation continued this week following the news that president-elect Donald Trump has named Paul Atkins to lead the Securities and Exchange Commission, replacing outgoing incumbent Gary Gensler. The incoming SEC chair is vocally in favour of free-market principles and has a much more favourable view on cryptocurrencies, in stark contrast to Gensler. He is also a member of Token Alliance, a pro-crypto lobbying group. Despite the attention-grabbing headlines, focuses have already begun to shift away from Bitcoin and towards the larger crypto markets. Bitcoin dominance has fallen from highs of 61% down to 55% currently and many altcoins have started catching up on the action. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell spoke on Wednesday afternoon, once again citing the strength of the US economy and progress on inflation as reasons to be cautious with regards to lowering rates. The next decision is just under two weeks away and markets are widely expecting a 25 bps cut. The Dollar settled lower yesterday, as did gold and crude oil. Attentions are now firmly focused on the NFP release later today. All hands on deck.
The Dollar took another step up earlier in the week, pushing the DXY back over 106. Once again the Euro was among the worst hit, closing Monday just under $1.05. The common currency is contending with the double threat of political instability within its borders as well as potential tariff hikes imposed by the incoming Trump presidency. The Japanese Yen continued to prove itself immune to such pressures, USDJPY refusing to move above 150. Strength in the Dollar appeared to suck the life out of gold over the past few days, leaving the precious metal unable to muster any kind of move. It is a good day for central bank aficionados. Later today, Andrew Bailey of the Bank of England, Christine Lagarde of the ECB and Fed Chair Jerome Powell are all set to speak at various events. Yesterday, a number of Federal Reserve members vaguely hinted that interest rates on the Dollar would continue to fall and that the central bank would adopt a more neutral stance. Far from concrete, but enough to move the FedWatch odds up to 70% for a quarter percent cut during the next meeting. Some interesting data came out of the latest JOLTS figures published on Tuesday. US job openings increased beyond expectations but perhaps more importantly, the quits rate increased from 1.9% to 2.1%, the first increase observed since May 2023. The data point indicates a sign of confidence among workers. The logic being that people are more willing to quit their jobs because they are now more confident of being able to secure a new one. The data helped push the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite to new record highs.
It was a predictably quiet end to the week last Friday, with US markets closing early and the rest of the world just as eager to get the weekend started. Despite only having the morning session to work with, US traders still managed to pump both the Dow and S&P 500 to record highs. All three major indices have had a stellar year so far and November was no exception. The Dow gained 7.5% last month, the Nasdaq Comp climbed 6.2% and the S&P 500 finished 5.7% in the black. The US election is now four weeks behind us, but the outcome continues to provide a steady source of developments for markets to digest. Trade wars, cabinet picks, various world leaders vying for position, etc… Nevertheless, the dust has at least partially settled and the monthly candles have just printed, so what is the verdict? First things first: the Dollar. The DXY pushed into ranges not seen since 2022 in the weeks following the result, and despite a sizeable pull back last week, the index is still up 1.8% in November. Strength in the Greenback took its toll on a number of currencies, but perhaps the Euro most of all, which lost almost 3% against the USD last month. Those wondering why the Japanese Yen is faring so well may consider the expected Bank of Japan rate hike in December. Second of all: gold. The precious metal faced severe selling pressure following the election as investors lost interest in the safe-haven narrative. Gold underwent major ups and downs in November before closing the month 3.4% in the red. Last but not least: crypto. Bitcoin shot up the second it became obvious that Donald Trump had secured the presidency and the elation lasted for much of the month. The original cryptocurrency gained a staggering $26,000 in November and remains coiled up below the all-important $100k mark. Shortly after the result, Gary Gensler, Chair of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), submitted his resignation, to the collective cheer of many in the crypto community. The overwhelming sentiment is that things can only get better no matter who takes his place. The rest of the crypto markets also followed in Bitcoin’s footsteps, with valuations swelling across the board. Looking at the week ahead shows a relatively crowded economic calendar. Manufacturing and services PMI figures dominate the schedule on Monday and Wednesday. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is set to speak on Wednesday afternoon. Thursday provides a well-needed respite before Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday.
Thanksgiving market closures were supposed to be an exclusively US event, but it looks like other markets around the world were also keen for a day off. Very tame conditions all round yesterday. Given that the US has been the main driver of financial movements over the last few weeks, it is understandable that its absence induced a lack of direction. US markets will open back up later today, albeit briefly, before closing early again for Thanksgiving weekend. The Dollar currency index barely moved yesterday, closing the day just north of 106. A step down from recent highs that is causing many to ask whether the local top is in or if the Greenback still has room to push higher. Even commodities had nothing to contribute on Thursday, gold ending the day flat at $2,637 an ounce and oil prices edging half a Dollar higher to remain near yearly lows. Bitcoin had a similarly muted day, aimlessly oscillating around $95,000. Interestingly, Bitcoin dominance finally took a hit over the last week, falling from highs of 61% down to 58% currently. A little early to be calling for “alt season” but an interesting development nonetheless. On Wednesday, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis unveiled the latest round of price inflation data, which fell in line with predictions across the board. A 2.3% year-on-year increase in prices, not far off the Fed’s target of 2%. The exclusion of food and energy from the index provided a higher figure of 2.8% although this too was hardly eyebrow raising. The publication provoked almost no reaction in the FedWatch, a tool showing the odds of the next Fed decision based on the positioning of interest rate traders.
