中東緊張局勢再次升溫，市場的表現也完全符合預期。據多方消息來源稱，週二凌晨，兩艘分別來自沙烏地阿拉伯和韓國的超級油輪在試圖通過霍爾木茲海峽時遭到不明投射物襲擊。數小時後，美軍對伊朗南部多個伊斯蘭革命衛隊目標發動報復性打擊。美國總統川普隨後進一步威脅伊朗政權，表示將採取「更加猛烈、規模更大的」報復行動。毫無疑問，和平談判方面的所有進展都已煙消雲散，雙方再次回到原點。在短暫的一段時間裡，局勢似乎確實開始出現某種解決方案，但過去 48 小時的發展再次讓這種樂觀預期淪為泡影。 隨著週二局勢不斷升級，原油價格不可避免地逐步走高，布蘭特原油 ( BRENT ) 基準價格升至 95 美元/桶。貴金屬市場對這一系列事件的反應卻截然不同。黃金下跌 120 美元，日終收在 4,328 美元/盎司；白銀也大幅回落至 64 美元/盎司附近。比特幣的表現相對堅挺，單日下跌 1.5%，跌至每枚 77,400 美元。兩艘超級油輪遭襲時，美國市場仍處於休市狀態，因此美股開盤時出現明顯的跳空下跌。標普 500 指數 ( SPX ) 最終收跌 0.7%，道瓊斯指數 ( DJI ) 下跌 0.8%，那斯達克指數 ( NDX ) 下跌 1.3%。如預期一樣，今天稍早亞洲市場開盤時也出現了中等幅度的下跌缺口，其中日經 225 指數 ( NI225 ) 開盤下跌 1.6%，韓國綜合指數（Kospi）跌幅更接近 3%。 昨天，英國 30 年期公債（Gilt）殖利率升至 5.9%，創 1998 年以來最高水準；10 年期英國公債殖利率也達到 5.18%，為 2008 年以來最高。日本方面，10 年期公債殖利率觸及 3%，為 1996 年以來首次。美國 10 年期公債殖利率升至 4.8%，創 2025 年 1 月以來最高水準。德國和法國同樣出現 10 年期公債殖利率多年高位，目前分別達到 2011 年和 2008 年以來未見的水平。整個主權債券市場正在經歷一次相當劇烈的重新定價，背後原因包括通膨擔憂、潛在的升息預期，以及市場認為各國政府的財政紀律正在惡化。當然，也可能是有人預期一場史詩級的牛市隨時就要開始。 本月開局相當不穩定，更令人擔憂的是，從歷史表現來看，9 月通常是股市表現最差的月份。自 1928 年以來，標普 500 指數 ( SPX ) 在 9 月平均下跌 1.1%；沒有其他月份的平均回報率為負。至少在周五非農就業報告（NFP）公佈之前，當前金融市場幾乎沒有什麼值得討論的議題能夠脫離伊朗局勢。 #IRAN #OIL #BONDS
The same losing script keeps replaying. Your stop gets swept by a hair before price turns back, the account shows an overnight deduction you never planned for, and one news release sends your order flying to a fill you do not recognise. At some point every trader asks the same question: is the market against me, or am I repeating mistakes I could actually fix? Almost always, it is the second one. This article lays out the 10 most common forex trading mistakes, and for each gives you three things: the symptom that tells you it is yours, the concrete fix, and the way to verify the fix has worked. Most forex losses come from a small set of repeated mistakes in two families: behavioural discipline errors, and trading costs treated as if they were free. The three most expensive are trading without a plan, overtrading, and ignoring spread, slippage and swap. Each of the 10 mistakes below comes with a fix and a way to verify it, and the cheapest place to run that whole cycle is a demo account, before any of it costs real money. Practise the fixes on a demo account: The 10 mistakes fall into two families. The first 4 are behaviour and discipline; the last 6 are mechanics and costs that most traders never count. Most people reading this list honestly will find they are running at least 3 of them. Here is the full set at a glance, before each gets its own section. With no written rules, every trade is improvised on the spot. There is nothing to follow, so there is nothing to break, and when the account bleeds you cannot say which decision did the damage. The symptom is simple to test: if you cannot state the entry and exit logic of your own last trade in one sentence, you are trading without a plan, whatever file sits on your desktop. The fix is to write the rules down and treat them as an operating document. The full eight-step build, with a copy-ready template, is in our trading plan guide. Read more：How to Make a Profitable Trading Plan: A Senior Trader's Guide Piling on trades after a winning streak and revenge-trading after a loss look like opposites, and they are the same mistake: trade count driven by emotion instead of setups. The symptoms are a daily count far beyond anything you planned, and a quiet inability to justify each trade when you review the day after the close. The fix is a hard cap on trades per day and a cooling-off rule after losses. The 10 warning signs and a self-check table are in our overtrading article. Read more：10 Signs of Overtrading and How to Avoid It Bet a large slice of the account on one idea and a single run of bad luck becomes an exit from the market. Oversizing turns ordinary variance into ruin. The symptom shows in the equity curve: one losing trade visibly bends it. The fix is to size every position from a fixed percentage of the account, decided before the trade, never from conviction. How to set that percentage and build the rest of the risk framework is covered in our risk management guide. Read more：10 Forex risk management tips every trader should know Skipping the stop hands the exit decision to whichever is reached first: your emotions or your margin. Neither exits well. The symptom is the losing position that gets held longer and longer, funded by fresh hope that price only needs to come back to break-even. The fix is mechanical: the stop is entered together with the trade, at the level where the idea is wrong, and it is not moved further away afterwards. Placement and order mechanics are covered in our stop-loss article and stop order guide. Read more：What is a stop-loss order and how to set it The spread is an entry fee paid on every single trade. Per trade it looks like noise; multiplied by frequency it becomes one of the biggest lines in a day trader's accounts. The symptom: you have never once written spread cost into a strategy's expectancy. Worked through with illustrative numbers: a day trader takes 8 trades a day on EUR/USD at an average spread of 0.9 pips, trading 0.5 lots. One pip on 0.5 lots is worth about $5, so each entry costs roughly $4.50. That is $36 a day, about $756 a month over 21 trading days, and roughly $9,072 a year. Verification: $4.50 × 8 × 21 × 12 = $9,072. On a $10,000 account, the spread alone consumes most of the account's starting value in a year, before a single bad decision is made. The fix has two parts: trade active sessions and lower-spread instruments, and write the spread into every trade's cost column so the number stays visible. You have verified the fix when spread cost appears as its own line in your next batch of journaled trades. The full calculation method is in our spread guide. Read more：What Is Spread in Forex? Formula, Calculation & Examples Around a major release, the spread widens and liquidity gets pulled at the same moment. A stop order triggered in that window converts to a market order in a market that has briefly stopped offering prices near your level. The symptom is unmistakable: line up your worst slippage and most of it clusters inside a few minutes of scheduled data. Illustratively, a pair that trades at 0.8 pips all morning can quote 6 pips or worse in the seconds around a rate decision. A stop that fills 5 pips beyond its trigger on 0.5 lots hands back an extra $25 on top of the planned loss. Nothing malfunctioned; that is what thin liquidity does to market orders. The fix: check the economic calendar before every session, and when a position must be held through a release, cut the size or pull resting orders first. You have verified it when a full data week passes with no unplanned fills. How execution behaves in fast markets is covered in our slippage article. Read more：What is slippage and how to avoid it in trading Hold a position past the daily rollover and it earns or pays overnight interest. On the wrong side of the rate gap, the charge lands every night, and on a multi-week hold it quietly eats a visible slice of whatever the trade makes. The symptom is a closed trade whose final profit and loss never quite matches your own arithmetic. Illustratively, a position charged $6.80 a night that is held for two calendar weeks collects around 10 charged nights, roughly $68, with one triple-charged Wednesday in each week already counted inside the total. Traders who never open the swap column simply find the account lighter than the chart says it should be. The fix: before opening any trade you intend to hold, look up the instrument's swap rate and multiply the planned nights into the cost. Verification is a habit, not a number: the swap column of every overnight position actually gets read. Rate lookup and the full formula are in our swap guide. Read more：What are swap fees and how are they calculated in forex trading? The market closes on Friday; elections, referendums and surprise announcements do not. Monday can open far beyond your stop level, and a stop order does not fill at its price after a gap — it fills at the first price available. The symptom is a Monday-morning statement showing an exit dozens of pips worse than the stop you set. Illustratively, a stop resting at 1.0800 protects nothing if Monday opens at 1.0754: the position closes 46 pips beyond the plan, and on 1 lot that is an extra $460 of loss the risk calculation never included. The fix: any position carried over a weekend is sized so that a gap through the stop is survivable, or reduced before Friday's close. Verification: every weekend hold in your journal was a deliberate decision, not a position you forgot. Gap behaviour and trigger mechanics are covered in our stop order guide. Read more：What is a stop order? Types, examples and how to set one The same pair is not the same market at different hours. In quiet sessions spreads run wide, depth runs thin, and a strategy that earns its edge in London hours can give the whole edge back in dead hours through costs alone. The symptom appears the first time you split your results by session: the losses cluster in specific times of day. The fix: concentrate trading in the active sessions for your pairs, and in thin hours let resting orders work instead of chasing prices. Verification is one honest pass through the journal with a session tag on every trade. Which hours are active for which pairs is covered in our trading sessions guide. Read more：Best time to trade forex: When to enter the market during the day Losses and recoveries are not symmetric. Lose 10% and an 11% gain repairs it; lose half the account and it takes a 100% run just to get back to the start. This asymmetry is the real mathematical price behind holding losers and oversizing, and the symptom is one specific belief: that a 50% drawdown is undone by a 50% gain. The table below is worth memorising. The fix folds back into Mistake 3: controlling the depth of each individual loss is the only way to keep the required recovery inside the possible. You have verified it when the account's maximum drawdown stops setting new records. The share of retail forex and CFD accounts that lose money is not urban legend; regulators publish it. The famous 90% figure is folklore, and the measured numbers are lower but still brutal. Here is what the official sources actually report. The figures differ because the samples differ. The FCA number comes from its 2016 analysis of CFD client accounts, ESMA's range aggregates national studies across the EU with average losses per client of €1,600 to €29,000, and the academic result tracks day traders on the Taiwan Stock Exchange across 14 years. Every serious measurement lands in the same territory: most retail accounts lose. The point of this table is not despair. The loss rate is high not because the market cheats, but because most participants repeat the same recognisable mistakes listed above, at leverage, in a market turning over $9.5 trillion a day that does not wait for anyone to learn. Every one of those mistakes is fixable, and fixing them is a process question. That is what the checklists below are for. Mistakes are not avoided by willpower; they are intercepted by process. The three checklists below can be copied straight off this page and adapted to your own market and style. Run this one before every entry: Run this one on your broker and your costs, once a quarter: And run this one after every losing trade: The 90% rule, often quoted as the 90/90/90 rule, is an informal industry saying that 90% of new traders lose 90% of their capital within their first 90 days. It is folklore rather than measured data, but the direction is right: regulator figures put the share of losing retail accounts at 74–89% in ESMA's analyses and 82% in the FCA's sample, and the behaviour the saying describes is exactly the stack of the 10 mistakes in this article. Forex trading leans heavily on skill, though luck decides plenty of individual trades. The skill side is precisely the 10 fixable mistakes above: any single position can go either way, but the long-run shape of the account curve is decided by discipline and cost awareness, not by fortune. Trading without a plan is the most common, because it also makes every other mistake impossible to attribute. Risking too much on a single trade is the close second, and the overview table at the top of this article maps the full set. Start by making the three invisible costs visible: spread, slippage and swap. Then put two risk rules in place, a fixed risk percentage and a stop entered with every trade, and run the pre-trade checklist in this article before every entry to intercept the most common leaks. The mechanics are easy to learn; the discipline and the cost awareness are the hard part. Making and fixing each of these 10 mistakes on a demo account is the cheapest trading education available. Structurally it is close: without written rules there is no expectancy management, so outcomes are driven by chance and emotion. A written trading plan is the thing that separates the two. The 10 mistakes in this article sort into two families: behaviour you can put rules around, and costs you can count. The loss-rate statistics are official and sobering, and none of them describe an unbeatable market; they describe a majority repeating recognisable errors at leverage. The three checklists exist to catch those errors before they price themselves in. The yardstick to take away: every loss in your journal should map to one of the 10 mistakes, or be confirmed as none of them, and only the losses that map to nothing belong to the market. Work through a losing streak with the post-mortem list in hand, and the shape of your losses changes: fewer categories, smaller depths, and a maximum drawdown that finally stops setting records. The RADEX MARKETS editorial team consists of seasoned financial professionals and market observers. Dedicated to delivering objective market summaries, macroeconomic insights, and educational content, the team strives to keep traders well-informed in a fast-paced financial environment. Reviewed by RADEX MARKETS Risk Warning Trading derivatives and leveraged products carries a high level of risk, including the risk of losing substantially more than your initial investment. Related concepts:
週一，Tim Cook 在執掌蘋果公司十五年後卸任 CEO 一職。 在寫給蘋果員工的一封感人信件中，Cook 引用了已故的 Steve Jobs 的話，稱正是「因為我們是誰、我們相信什麼，因為我們珍視什麼、我們如何看待這個世界」，公司才「能夠在宇宙中留下屬於我們的『印記』……我們是多麼幸運，而我又是多麼幸運」。 蘋果現任硬體工程資深副總裁 John Ternus 將接任 CEO 一職，而 Tim Cook 則會繼續擔任執行董事長。 Cook 於 1998 年加入蘋果，當時 Steve Jobs 邀請他加入公司。他最初擔任全球營運資深副總裁，並一直任職至 2009 年，隨後晉升為負責公司營運。接下來的兩年裡，隨著 Jobs 的健康狀況持續惡化，Cook 開始更加深入參與公司的日常運營，最終於 2011 年 8 月正式接替前任 CEO Steve Jobs，時間距離 Jobs 因胰腺癌並發症不幸去世僅六週。 如今可能很難想像，但在 1990 年代中期，蘋果曾因產品線過於臃腫以及嚴重的管理不善而陷入財務困境。 1997 年，蘋果公佈的淨虧損超過 10 億美元，一度被認為距離破產僅剩 90 天。同年，共同創辦人 Steve Jobs 重返公司，並成功從微軟手中獲得 1.5 億美元的救命資金，同時大幅整合生產業務，將資源集中到數量更少的商業項目上，並砍掉了大量失敗的項目。 如果說 Jobs 是為公司注入全新動力的願景家，那麼 Tim Cook 就是阻止蘋果繼續失血的財務架構師。供應鏈管理、分銷、物流以及製造流程都經過了全面優化，最終建立起一套幾乎不存在閒置庫存的營運系統。硬體產品能夠以最快速度完成組裝並出貨，形成了「及時生產」的製造模式，為公司釋放出數百萬美元的現金。同時，透過與供應商簽訂大規模採購合同，蘋果也能夠鎖定穩定的零件供應，並以低於競爭對手的價格獲得組件。 1998 年，蘋果超過 3 億美元的淨利潤，這是公司自 1995 年以來首次獲利。第二年，也就是 1999 年，淨利翻倍至 6 億美元。不幸的是，網路泡沫在 2000 年底破裂，打斷了公司的上升勢頭，並導致蘋果在 2001 年出現 2,500 萬美元的虧損。這也是蘋果最後一次未能獲利。 在接下來的幾年甚至數十年裡，蘋果逐漸成長為我們如今所熟悉的商業巨頭。 2007 年，也就是第一代 iPhone 發表的那一年，蘋果淨利達到 35 億美元；到 2010 年，這一數字已經翻了四倍，達到 140 億美元；2020 年則達到 570 億美元。在過去 12 個月裡，蘋果實現了近 1,300 億美元的淨利潤，公司市值也突破 4.5 兆美元，僅次於英偉達，位居全球第二。 蘋果的轉型是世界歷史上最偉大的商業成功故事之一，而 Tim Cook 從一開始就處於這場轉型的核心位置。說他成功完成了自己的職責，遠遠不足以概括他的貢獻——他發揮了至關重要的作用。 如果想尋找蘋果未來走向的線索，那麼不妨關注即將上任的 CEO John Ternus。與典型的董事會高管不同，Ternus 是一名機械工程師出身的技術人員，整個職業生涯都在蘋果內部不斷晉升。幾十年來，他的工作一直是打造蘋果如今賴以成名的產品。他深受公司基層員工尊敬，是那種會花上幾個小時爭論一顆螺絲到底應該有多少條螺紋的人，而普通消費者可能永遠不會看到那顆螺絲。 從追求經濟效率轉向產品設計與工程研發，是一次有意為之的策略轉變。蘋果已經在財務層面佔據主導地位長達一代人的時間；這次任命表明，公司未來的重點可能會重新回到產品本身，而不是利潤數字上。公平地說，蘋果如今不再是過去那個引領文化潮流的先鋒企業，甚至有人會認為，近年來的蘋果多少顯得有些無趣。 不過，多數公司沒有條件完成這樣的策略轉向。蘋果如今能夠如此輕鬆地重新回歸初心，歸根結底，都得益於 Tim Cook 多年來的經營為公司所創造出的巨大財務彈性。
上週的沉悶行情終於在周五結束。美國聯邦儲備委員會主席 Kevin Warsh 在懷俄明州傑克遜霍爾研討會上發表講話，稱委員會將繼續致力於將利率降回 2% 的目標，並表示儘管整體通膨數據有所改善，但最新數據並未顯示潛在通膨趨勢出現實質性改善。儘管聯準會依然不願透露太多未來政策指引，但傳遞出的訊息已經十分明確：升息仍然是選項之一，而且在周五的演講之後，市場對升息的預期大幅升溫。根據芝加哥商品交易所的 FedWatch 工具，目前市場認為 9 月會議升息 25 個基點的機率已經升至 60%；該工具同時預計，到今年年底利率維持不變的機率僅為 10%。 美元對此做出了符合預期的反應，吸引資金流入外匯市場，推動美元指數 ( DXY ) 在周五收盤時上漲約 0.5%，升至 99.7 點。貴金屬則受到打擊。黃金週五下跌約 150 美元，全週收在 4,455 美元/盎司；白銀下跌約 3 美元，收在 66.35 美元/盎司。比特幣同樣大幅下挫，跌出 8 萬美元關口，回落至 7.7 萬美元附近。美國股市當天僅錄得小幅跌幅。 儘管其他大宗商品出現明顯波動，原油價格週五卻異常穩定，主要海運原油基準價格維持在 88 美元/桶附近。不過，石油業背後似乎正在發生不少事情，尤其是在委內瑞拉。週末期間，圍繞著這個擁有龐大石油儲備的南美國家出現了一系列耐人尋味的消息。川普總統週五在社群媒體上發文稱，美國將取得委內瑞拉石油儲備的部分權益，而委內瑞拉代理總統 Delcy Rodríguez 則表示，這項協議將成為推動該國石油產業現代化的一步。川普週日進一步解釋稱，協議的一部分內容將是利用委內瑞拉原油補充美國戰略石油儲備。目前美國戰略石油儲備的儲量僅約 40%。不過，截至目前，相關協議的具體細節尚未公佈。 近期委內瑞拉與美國關係逐漸緩和，也與目前在加拉加斯流傳的另一則傳聞高度吻合。據稱，委內瑞拉可能正在考慮退出石油輸出國組織（OPEC），而委內瑞拉正是該組織的創始成員之一。 1960 年 OPEC 成立時，這個石油聯盟的明確目標是將石油業的權力從西方石油巨頭手中集中回來——而如今，恰恰是這些西方勢力正在與委內瑞拉達成協議，以開發其大片油田。其中的諷刺意味不言而喻。 今天倫敦證券交易所因夏季銀行假日休市，但本周其他主要交易所均將正常開市。週二將公佈歐元區 CPI 數據，隨後美國交易時段也將公佈 7 月 JOLTS 職缺數據以及 ISM 製造業 PMI。週三，加拿大央行預計將把加元利率維持在 2.25% 不變。週四，ISM 將公佈服務業 PMI 數據，進一步補充美國整體經濟活動的情況。最後，週五市場將迎來 8 月非農業就業報告，預計新增就業人數為 45,000 人。 說到非農就業數據，上週五公佈的初步基準修正數據顯示，過去一整年新增就業人數僅被下調 79,000 人，整體調整幅度約為 0.1%，市場幾乎沒有對此作出反應。本週財報日程相對清淡，值得關注的主要是周二公佈財報的戴爾科技（DELL），以及週三公佈財報的博通（AVGO）。本週另一個重要事件是今年的G20峰會。峰會將於週一和週二在北卡羅來納州舉行，預計將討論持續中的關稅爭端以及中東局勢，而後者很可能成為未來幾天市場情緒的主要驅動力。 本週才剛開始，但有關油輪遭襲以及伊朗目標遭到攻擊的消息已經陸續傳出，推動布倫特原油 ( BRENT ) 基準價格在開盤後重新逼近 90 美元/桶。亞洲股市對此反應冷淡，日經 225 指數 ( NI225 ) 和韓國綜合指數（Kospi）今早開盤均出現溫和下跌。 #IRAN #G20 #WARSH
華爾街終於在週三深夜等到了自己一直期待的確認訊號。英偉達 (NVDA) 不僅在最新財報中大幅超出市場預期，還再次向投資者保證，在可預見的未來，市場對 AI 基礎設施的需求仍將維持在極高水平。 英偉達首席財務官 Colette Kress 預計，這家晶片製造商到 2028 年的營收可能實現 70% 的增長。而這一增長幅度受到限制的原因並不是需求不足，而是供應方面的問題。首席執行官 Jensen Huang 隨後進一步表示，如果不是目前的供應限制正在制約整個半導體行業，英偉達的銷售額實際上可能會翻倍。數據已經擺在所有人面前，結論也顯而易見：AI 行業的需求如此強勁，以至於製造商根本無法跟上需求。 英偉達股價週四上漲近 9%，創下一年多以來最大的單日漲幅。這份財報也提振了整個科技板塊，英特爾 (INTC) 和博通 (AVGO) 在週四交易中均上漲超過 4%；納斯達克 100 指數 (NDX) 最終上漲 1.4%。在其他市場方面，本週後半段整體仍較為平靜。美元指數 (DXY) 在 99 點上方徘徊，黃金 (XAUUSD) 守住 $4600 美元/盎司，原油 (WTI) 小幅上漲至 $88 美元/桶。唯一明顯的例外是比特幣 (BTC)——其日線收盤價終於站上 $80,000 美元，這是自 5 月以來首次。 隨著英偉達財報這一焦點落幕，市場注意力將轉向傑克遜霍爾經濟政策研討會（Jackson Hole Symposium），目前會議已經進入第二天。美聯儲主席 Kevin Warsh 預計將於美國東部時間上午 10 點發表講話，市場預計他將談及央行未來的利率政策方向。這位新任主席上任時間還不算長，而且相比前任，他採取了更加謹慎、少透露政策資訊的態度。 美聯儲基本上已經放棄了任何形式的前瞻指引（forward guidance），導致市場目前幾乎沒有太多政策訊號可以解讀，因此今天的講話就顯得格外重要。市場尤其會密切關注他對通脹的評論，以及他對上週美國財政部干預債券市場一事的反應。高通脹顯然是一個問題，但市場目前更關心的是：其中有多少是由暫時性因素造成的，又有多少來自更深層次的結構性因素？經濟增長方面的擔憂也需要納入考量。如果美國經濟的增長速度能夠快於政府的借貸成本，那麼債務占 GDP 的比例就有可能趨於穩定。這也讓市場對於 AI 驅動的經濟繁榮的預測變得更加值得關注。 今天晚些時候，美國勞工統計局（Bureau of Labor Statistics）將公布去年非農就業人數的首次年度修正數據，這將進一步為支持或質疑美國經濟強勁程度的雙方提供新的依據。 #英偉達 #傑克遜霍爾 #比特幣
委內瑞拉可能正在逐步接近放棄官方貨幣玻利瓦爾、轉而採用美元的決定。儘管這個飽受通膨困擾的國家的民眾早已開始在日常交易中使用美元，並將其作為保值手段，以抵禦玻利瓦爾持續貶值，但目前玻利瓦爾仍然是委內瑞拉中央銀行發行的唯一法定貨幣。 著名經濟學家、委內瑞拉國民議會特別顧問 Steve Hanke 估計，委內瑞拉最終完成貨幣轉換的機率在 50% 至 80% 之間。 Hanke 是美國巴爾的摩約翰斯霍普金斯大學應用經濟學教授，在這問題上有相當的發言權，因為他過去曾幫助多個國家完成類似的貨幣轉型。這位被稱為「貨幣醫生」的教授曾在 1999 年幫助黑山從惡性通膨的南斯拉夫第納爾轉向德國馬克，隨後在 2000 年協助厄瓜多爾改用美元。他也一直推動津巴布韋實施美元化，而該國僅在過去十年就已經經歷了多次貨幣更替。 玻利瓦爾最早於 1879 年推出，在將近一個世紀的時間裡一直是全球最穩定的貨幣之一。然而，近年來委內瑞拉的惡性通膨摧毀了這款南美貨幣曾經擁有的所有信譽。自 2008 年以來，玻利瓦爾已經進行了三次貨幣重估，每次都削去若干個零，累計去除了 14 個零。如今的 1 玻利瓦爾，相當於 2008 年以前的 1,000,000,000,000,000（100兆）玻利瓦爾。截至今年，委內瑞拉通膨率仍高於500%，而且看不到結束的跡象。 儘管美元已經在委內瑞拉各地廣泛流通，但正式更換貨幣仍面臨一系列重大的法律和技術障礙。委內瑞拉憲法明確規定玻利瓦爾是該國唯一的法定貨幣，因此首先需要修改憲法。隨後，國民議會必須通過相關法律，賦予美元法定貨幣地位，並確定兩種貨幣之間的固定匯率。 接下來，委內瑞拉必須確保擁有足夠的美元，以實際兌換目前市場上流通的全部玻利瓦爾，這意味著需要對整個國家的貨幣基礎進行全面審計。每一個銀行帳戶、投資帳戶、債務、義務、抵押貸款、資產負債表、薪資、合約以及稅務制度，都需要重新進行貨幣核算。最後將進入過渡期，在此期間美元和玻利瓦爾都將被法律認可，同時逐步淘汰並回收市場上剩餘的玻利瓦爾紙幣。 如果一切都按照計畫進行，屆時委內瑞拉中央銀行將不再具備傳統意義上的中央銀行職能。其所有貨幣政策權力將被剝奪，無法再發行貨幣或調整利率。相反，該銀行將更像是委內瑞拉政府的行政代理機構，負責審計私人銀行、管理稅收存款，並在商業銀行出現現金需求時負責進口新的實體美元現金。 世界上許多國家早在幾十年前就已經採用美元作為官方貨幣。巴拿馬自 1904 年起使用美元；馬紹爾群島和密克羅尼西亞自 1944 年起使用美元；帛琉自 1994 年起使用美元；厄瓜多爾和東帝汶自 2000 年起使用美元；薩爾瓦多則自 2001 年起採用美元。此外，美國、英國和荷蘭的一些海外領地也採用了美元。 儘管美元實際上已經成為委內瑞拉的事實貨幣，但從法律層面正式採用美元仍面臨現任政府的強烈反對。將貨幣體系交給政府無法控制的貨幣從來都不是一件輕鬆的事；失去貨幣主權並不是一個可以輕描淡寫的「小麻煩」。 除此之外，放棄玻利瓦爾也涉及民族自豪感，而出於歷史原因，這種情感在委內瑞拉尤其強烈。這個石油資源豐富的國家曾在查維斯、後來又在馬杜羅的領導下經歷了嚴重的經濟與政治困境，同時也長期承受美國經濟制裁的壓力。如今，馬杜羅正在紐約的一個拘留中心等待審判，而美國能源巨頭雪佛龍（Chevron）則正在迅速擴大在委內瑞拉油田的業務。 委內瑞拉或許必須放下自己的驕傲，才能重新找回繁榮。
