過去幾天，市場重新轉向風險偏好，關於關稅的恐慌持續消退，美國股市因此出現可觀漲幅。標普500指數（SPX）和道瓊指數（DJI）已連續八個交易日收高，而那斯達克指數（NDX）在主要科技公司發布優於預期的財報後強勁反彈。微軟（MSFT）在周四大漲7.6%，遠超獲利預期。蘋果（AAPL）和Meta（META）也都傳來利好消息，讓整個科技業暫時鬆了一口氣。 最新的PCE價格指數也提供了樂觀理由，基本上符合預期並顯示通膨持續下降。第一季GDP遠低於預期，顯示美國經濟萎縮0.3%，但這一下滑可以解釋為新關稅制度實施前進口激增，扭曲了貿易平衡計算。然而，ADP就業數據表現糟糕，僅為預期的一半。今天稍晚公佈的非農就業數據是否會證實就業下滑還有待觀察。目前預計新增13萬個就業崗位，如果大幅低於預期可能會在今天下午引發一定程度的市場波動。 黃金昨天第三次收跌，收盤價為USD $3238美元/盎司。貴金屬現已從歷史高點下跌7%。另一方面，美元繼續走高，美元指數終於推回100之上。加密貨幣市場昨日溫和上漲，比特幣上漲至USD $97,000美元，逐漸接近10萬美元的心理關口，而這一水準自2月以來始終未能突破。
Markets have shifted back towards a risk-on environment over the last few days. The panic surrounding tariffs continues to abate and US stocks have enjoyed decent rallies as a result. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones have now closed higher over the past eight consecutive sessions, while the Nasdaq Composite rallied strongly yesterday following better-than-expected earnings reports from major tech companies. Microsoft (MSFT) surged a whopping 7.6% on Thursday after smashing earnings estimates. Both Apple (AAPL) and Meta (META) also had good news to report on their ends, causing sighs of relief in the wider technology sector. The latest PCE price index also provided grounds for optimism, falling largely in line with predictions and showing continued decreases in inflation. Q1 GDP came in far lower than expected, pointing to a 0.3% contraction in the US economy, but the fall is explained by the sharp increase in imports ahead of the new tariff regime, skewing the trade balance element of the calculation. The ADP employment numbers made for dire reading however, coming in at half the expected figures. It remains to be seen if the Non-Farm Payrolls later today confirm the fall in employment. Current predictions are for 130k new jobs, so a bad miss may provoke some measure of volatility this afternoon. Gold completed its third daily close in the red yesterday, this time ending the day at $3,238 an ounce. The precious metal is now down 7% from record highs. The Dollar on the other hand continued to push higher, finally dragging the DXY back above 100. Crypto markets pushed modestly higher yesterday, with Bitcoin rising to $97k and edging ever closer to the six-figure psychological barrier, a threshold lost back in February.
本周至今，市場表現較為平靜。全球股市在過去幾個交易日普遍錄得小幅上漲，許多美國大型企業正準備發布最新季度財報。微軟（MSFT）和Meta（META）將於今日收盤後發布財報。星巴克（SBU）在昨日盤後交易中大跌6.7%，因為該公司披露門市銷售下滑。科技股表現參差不齊，Super Micro Computer（SMCI）因業績不佳下跌15%，而希捷科技（STX）則因第一季銷售額超出預期而上揚9%。 近期外匯市場也恢復了一些理性，極端波動暫時退場，市場波動性有所下降。甚至連一向戲劇化的加密貨幣也顯得無精打采，比特幣在過去一周幾乎沒有波動，目前也沒有顯示出任何走勢意圖。黃金在上週二創下歷史新高後回落，目前穩定在每盎司3,300美元以上。整體市場交易狀態平淡。 不過，這也許是「暴風雨前的寧靜」，因為今日稍晚的經濟日曆將迎來大量重要數據。最新的ADP就業數據與第一季度GDP成長率預計將成為市場關注焦點，而最受矚目的還是PCE物價指數，預測顯示整體通膨將下降。明日適逢五一勞動節，全球多數市場可能稍作休息。但周五將迎來另一輪重頭戲——非農就業數據（NFP）的發布。且讓我們好好享受這短暫的平靜。
Markets have been a little calmer so far this week. By and large, stock markets around the world have enjoyed modest gains over the past couple of sessions, as many large US companies prepare to report their latest quarterly earnings. Microsoft (MSFT) and Meta (META) will release their respective reports later today, although only after market hours. Starbucks (SBU) plummeted as much as 6.7% in after-hours trading yesterday after the coffee company revealed slumping store sales. A mixed bag for tech stocks so far, with Super Micro Computer (SMCI) falling 15% after poor results, while Seagate (STX) jumped 9% after beating Q1 sales estimates. Currencies have recovered some demeanour in recent sessions, extreme swings appear to be out of fashion for the time being and the volatility has died down somewhat. Even cryptocurrencies aren’t interested in drama anymore, Bitcoin has been flat as a pancake for the past week already and is currently showing no inclination of going anywhere. Gold has also been relatively stable after coming down from last Tuesday’s record high and is now hovering above $3,300 an ounce. Dull trading conditions all round. Famous last words perhaps, as the economic calendar really perks up later today. The latest ADP employment figures are sure to raise some eyebrows, as will first quarter GDP growth, but the main event of the day will be the PCE Price Index, which is predicted to reveal lower inflation across the board. Markets may slow down a little tomorrow as much of the world takes the day off for Labour Day. Friday raises the stakes once again however with the latest round of NFP data. Enjoy the calm while it lasts.
雖然現在下定論還為時過早，但美元上週終於似乎有所穩定。美元指數（DXY）一度跌破98，但隨後反彈，以周線收漲，表現尚可。近來的市場動向對美元來說可謂相當不利。歐元兌美元匯率已創下三年來的新高，而瑞士法郎等避險貨幣兌美元也達到了十多年來的最高水準。幾乎可以說，挑選任何一種貨幣，美元目前幾乎都處於對其的年度低點。 另一方面，黃金今年以來表現亮眼，上週又創下新高。上週二，金價一度觸及USD $3,500美元/盎司，尤其令人震驚的是，短短四個月前，價格還僅有約USD $2,600美元/盎司。然而，漲勢並未持續太久，隨後獲利了結的賣壓令金價回落，並以周線收跌，留下了一根難看的陰線。 目前，圍繞關稅的不確定性仍是左右市場情緒的主要因素，但「戰爭迷霧」似乎終於開始消散。雖然重新建立新的貿易協議仍需時間，但初步跡象讓部分投資者開始持謹慎樂觀態度。上週三大美股指數悉數收漲，標普500指數 ( SPX ) 和那斯達克指數 ( NDX ) 分別上揚了4.6%和6.7%。歐洲和亞洲的股市也延續了積極的動能，前者幾乎完全擺脫了近期的拋售潮。 本週基本面資料也將再次成為市場焦點。這一週無論從經濟數據或企業財報來看都極為重要。標普500指數 ( SPX ) 中將有多達180家公司公佈季度財報，包括蘋果（AAPL）、亞馬遜（AMZN）、Meta（META）、微軟（MSFT）等知名企業。經濟數據方面，週三將公佈最新的PCE物價指數，市場預期通膨將大幅下降。 ADP就業人數報告也將在同一天公佈，但交易員的焦點轉向更具影響力的非農就業報告。上月的非農業數據遠超過市場預期，因此市場也將密切關注是否有對上次數據的修正，或是四月數據是否能延續強勁表現。當然，關於關稅局勢的任何最新消息，或烏克蘭局勢的任何進展，隨時都有可能對市場產生影響。本週注定將是忙碌而關鍵的一周。
過去幾天席捲金融市場的恐慌情緒有所消退。美國股指連續三天上揚，歐洲市場也是如此，幾乎從關稅恐慌引發的拋售中回升。本週後半段的發展，為美國與世界各地建立新貿易協定帶來一絲樂觀。先前敦促各國「拿出最佳表現」的美國財政部長史考特·班森特，昨天宣布南韓已做到這一點，並表示雙方貿易協議進展順利。雖然有些國家積極重建穩固的貿易關係，但美中之間仍僵持不下。 美國經濟數據依舊傳遞著混合訊息。週三公佈的數據顯示，4 月製造業 PMI 升至 50.7，超出預期的 49，顯示該產業仍處於擴張階段；然而服務業 PMI 則從預期的 52.5 降至 51.4，雖仍在擴張區間，但也出現放緩跡象。美元的走勢依然令人摸不著頭緒。距離下一次聯準會利率決策已不到兩週，市場參與者似乎越來越難以判斷結果走向。 黃金也正在重新審視自己在快速變動的金融環境中的角色。這項貴金屬已從週二的歷史高點回落，正等待下一個地緣政治催化劑來決定下一步走勢。整體市場也是如此，近期幾乎沒有重大排程事件，投資人只能保持觀望。
