Carnage. Donald Trump kicked up a storm over the weekend by imposing tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China, effective as early as Tuesday. It goes without saying that financial markets have been going haywire since the announcement and as trading begins in earnest this morning things may escalate further. Mind the gap. As expected, there has been an immediate reaction in currencies. The Dollar is currently on a rampage and is causing mayhem on the usual pairs; DXY up 1.2% at the time of writing. The Euro experienced a rude awakening this morning, opening with a huge gap to the downside near $1.02. Worth bearing in mind that Trump has also threatened the EU with similar tariffs. The Canadian Dollar took a predictable hammering this morning, USDCAD currently fighting to remain below 1.48. Cryptocurrencies were similarly quick to respond, getting obliterated across the board. Bitcoin has been decimated over the weekend, suffering a solid 10% loss and plummeting to lows of $91k this morning. Needless to say, the reaction in the lower caps has been even more devastating. A sea of red. As for precious metals, gold has retreated from recent all-time highs, falling to $2,775 this morning after seeing a record $2,817 an ounce on Friday. A busy start to the week no doubt, but in all likelihood the drama is far from over. Manufacturing and services PMIs dominate the economic calendar early this week, after which the Bank of England will announce its latest interest rate decision on Thursday. It all culminates on Friday with the latest round of NFP data, but traders would do well to remember that geopolitical developments could steal the show at any time.
美元 這是一個乏味但必不可少的答案。美元是世界儲備貨幣，在可預見的未來仍將維持這一地位。強大的美元幾乎是所有國際貿易默認的支付手段。即使沒有川普總統，美元的優勢地位也是無可爭議的，但在川普的領導下，市場參與者可以預期美元將被更激進地使用。 第一個原因是美元與其他貨幣之間的利率差異。截至撰寫本文時，美元利率為4.5%。相比之下，歐元利率約為3%。日元利率剛調整至0.5%。簡而言之，美元能夠獲得更高的利息收益使其更具吸引力。過去四個月美元的上漲很大程度上是由於利率差異。當美國政府開始呼籲激進降息時，這一點值得記住。降低利率會削弱美元，而將利率維持在當前高點則確保需求保持強勁。 關稅是第二個原因。更高的關稅及其威脅在未來幾年將對美元產生重大影響。這裡涉及許多機制，但簡單來說，每當政府似乎在關稅問題上軟化立場時，美元往往會對競爭貨幣失去優勢。唐納德·特朗普總統任期的第一周就出現了美元的顯著下跌，很大程度上是因為預期的關稅公告未能實現。 更普遍的是，大宗商品市場都是以美元計價的事實。無論交易者關注的是黃金、石油或其他商品，美元都在交易的終端。最好持續關注它。 原油 與大多數其他市場相比，油價更植根於現實。世界每天消耗數百萬桶石油，這意味著供需動態決定一切。減產、供應鏈中斷、制裁和關稅都會迅速且不可避免地推高原油價格。另一方面，需求疲軟也會迅速導致價格下跌。 正因如此，石油市場是最容易受地緣政治事件影響的市場之一。正如我們在去年所見，中東地區的每一個事態發展都立即引發了原油價格的反應。有關俄烏衝突中煉油廠遭到攻擊的新聞也產生了類似的影響。 在未來幾年的國際關係中，針對石油生產國的製裁和關稅無疑將成為重要議題，但一個經常被忽視的因素是需求面。不幸的是，全球工業生產下降，這意味著對石油的需求也在下降。特別是歐洲製造業近期受到嚴重打擊，諷刺的是，部分原因是由於對俄羅斯石油和天然氣實施禁運導致當地能源價格上漲。中國經濟近年來也展現出一些脆弱性。美國甚至開始出現裂痕。如果全球需求持續下降，原油價格可能會隨之下跌。 經濟成長其實與更高的石油需求是同義詞。石油市場的相互關聯性和相關性確保它們將在任何政治或經濟轉變的前沿保持地位。不容忽視。 加密貨幣 即將上任的政府已經非常明確地表明了對加密貨幣的立場。加密貨幣市場的反應同樣明確。自大選以來，比特幣上漲了50%。交易所出現大量資金流入。羅斯烏布里希出獄（自2011年起創建並經營暗網市場絲綢之路，直到 2013 年被捕）。放鬆監管的呼聲響亮清晰。 近期與美國證券交易委員會（SEC）打交道一直很困難，這麼說還是輕描淡寫。但改變正在發生。前證交會主席加里·詹斯勒早已離任，他的繼任者保羅·阿特金斯，儘管仍在等待確認，但與離任團隊的立場完全相反。 過去幾年是加密貨幣歷史上最黑暗的時期之一。令人窒息且混亂的監管在這個新興行業最需要指導的時候重創了它。業界許多聲音一再懇求獲得更多明確性，卻只得到懲罰性措施作為回應。除此之外，這段時期也被我們所見過的最嚴重的詐騙、駭客攻擊和醜聞所玷污。光是FTX崩潰造成的損失就達到數十億美元。這完全是不可原諒的。 所有跡像都表明糟糕時期即將結束。許多先前被擱置的發展正等待被釋放，有趣的時期即將到來。 人工智能 在上任的第一周，川普總統宣布了星門計畫（Stargate Project）。該計劃計劃在未來四年內向美國的人工智能基礎設施投資5000億美元。光是這項宣布就引發了最有可能從這項投資中受益的科技公司股票的大量買入活動。 晶片製造商可能會繼續受到深具實力投資者的密切關注。英偉達(NVDA)股價僅在2024年就幾乎翻了兩輪，該公司現在已經與美國最大的科技巨頭並駕齊驅。這種上漲主要是由人工智能領域的預期進展所推動的。有人可能會說人工智能帶動的炒作有些不合理，時間會證明一切。然而，如此規模的承諾不容忽視。 在人工智能方面，特別是在美國和中國之間，正在發展一場國際軍備競賽。在星門計畫宣布後不久，中國新創公司DeepSeek出人意料地發布了其人工智能模型的開源版本，據稱可以與矽谷最好的產品競爭。更令人驚訝的是，該模型的訓練成本僅為美國同類產品的一小部分。 就像加密貨幣產業一樣，在一般民眾中對人工智能存在著一定程度的懷疑。保持懷疑當然沒有錯，但正如任何精明的投資者都知道的那樣，始終值得關注資金的流向。
United States Dollar A boring but essential answer. The United States Dollar is the world’s reserve currency and will remain so for the foreseeable future. The mighty Greenback is the default means of payment for almost all international trade. The Dollar’s supremacy is incontestable even without a Trump presidency, but with DJT at the helm market participants can expect the Dollar to be wielded more aggressively than usual. One part of the equation is the difference in interest rates between the Dollar and other currencies. As of the time of writing, rates on the Dollar are 4.5%. In contrast, rates on the Euro are around 3%. The rate on the Japanese Yen has just been adjusted to 0.5%. Put simply, the ability to earn higher interest on the Dollar makes it more attractive. A large part of the Dollar’s ascendency over the past four months is due to interest rate differentials. This is worth bearing in mind when the US government starts calling for aggressive rate cuts. Slashing interest rates would weaken the Dollar, whereas maintaining them at the current high levels ensures demand remains strong. Tariffs are the second part of the equation. Higher tariffs and the threat thereof will have a significant impact on the Dollar over the coming years. There are many mechanisms at play here, but suffice to say that every time the administration appears to soften its tone on tariffs, the Dollar tends to lose out against competing currencies. The first week of Donald Trump’s presidency saw significant declines in the Dollar, in no small part because expected tariff announcements failed to materialise. More generally, the fact is that commodity markets are denominated in Dollars. Whether traders are looking at gold, oil or anything else, the Dollar is on the other side of the trade. Best to keep an eye on it. Crude oil More so than most other markets, the price of oil is heavily grounded in reality. The world consumes millions of barrels of oil every single day, which means that supply and demand dynamics dictate everything. Reduced production, disruptions in the supply chain, sanctions and tariffs will quickly and inevitably increase the price of crude oil. On the other hand, faltering demand will rapidly cause prices to fall. Because of this, oil markets are some of the more susceptible to geopolitical events. As we saw throughout last year, every development in the Middle East prompted an immediate response in the price of crude oil. News items relating to attacks on refineries in the Russia-Ukraine conflict had a similar impact. Talk of sanctions and tariffs against oil-producing nations will no doubt feature prominently in international relations over the next few years, but one of the more overlooked elements is the demand side of things. Unfortunately, industrial production is down across the globe, meaning demand for oil is also on the decline. European manufacturing in particular has been hit hard in recent times, ironically in part because of higher local energy prices due to embargoes against Russian oil and gas. The Chinese economy has also exhibited some fragility in recent years. Cracks are even starting to appear in the United States. Should worldwide demand continue to fall, crude prices may follow suit. Economic growth is practically synonymous with higher oil consumption. The interconnectedness and relevancy of oil markets ensure they will remain at the forefront of any political or economic shift. Not to be overlooked. Cryptocurrencies The incoming administration has been abundantly clear on its stance on cryptocurrencies. The response from the crypto markets has been equally unambiguous. Bitcoin is up 50% since the election. Exchanges have seen huge inflows. Ross Ulbricht is out of prison. Calls for deregulation are ringing out loud and clear. The Securities and Exchange Commission has been difficult to contend with in recent times, to put it mildly. But change is in the air. Former chair of the SEC Gary Gensler is long gone and his replacement, Paul Atkins, although still awaiting confirmation, could not be more diametrically opposed to the outgoing team. The last few years were some of the darkest in the history of crypto. Stifling and confusing regulations crippled the fledgling industry just when it needed guidance the most. Many voices in the scene repeatedly begged for greater clarity, only to receive nothing but punitive measures in response. On top of that, the period was marred by the worst scams, hacks and scandals we have ever seen. The losses from the collapse of FTX alone reached into the billions. Utterly unforgiveable. All signs are pointing to the bad times drawing to an end. Many developments that have been held back until now are waiting to be unleashed. Interesting times ahead. Artificial Intelligence During his first week in office, President Trump announced the Stargate Project. The project intends to invest $500 billion over the next four years in AI infrastructure in the United States. The announcement alone triggered a flurry of buying activity in the tech companies most likely to benefit from such an investment. Chip manufacturers are likely to remain under the scrutinous gaze of investors with deep pockets. Nvidia (NVDA) shares almost tripled in price in 2024 alone and the company now stands shoulder to shoulder with the largest tech giants in America. The rise was largely fuelled by anticipated advancements in the AI sector. An argument could be made that the hype surrounding Artificial Intelligence is somewhat unjustified, time will tell. Pledges of such magnitude cannot be ignored however. There is something of an international arms race developing when it comes to AI, particularly between the US and China. Shortly after the announcement of Project Stargate, Chinese startup DeepSeek surprised everyone by releasing an open-source version of its AI model that supposedly competes with the best of what Silicon Valley has to offer. Even more surprisingly, the model was trained at a fraction of the cost of its US counterparts. Much like with the cryptocurrency industry, there is a certain amount of scepticism among large swathes of the general population when it comes to AI. There is certainly nothing wrong with being sceptical, but as any savvy investor will know, it is always worth keeping tabs on where the money is going.
The year of the snake is upon us; time to shed bad trading habits. Yesterday, US stock markets made a decent show of recovering from the fallout of the massive sell-off in Nvidia (NVDA) shares that occurred on Monday. For those who missed it, Chinese start-up DeepSeek surprised the world by releasing an open source version of its AI model that supposedly competes with the best of what Silicon Valley has to offer. More importantly, the company trained the model for a fraction of the price of its competitors. The news prompted a half-trillion Dollar loss in Nvidia’s market cap, the assumption being that the hardware requirements for AI endeavours are not as high as previously thought. GPUs not needed. Nvidia plunged 17% by Monday’s close, dragging the Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 down along with it. By the end of Tuesday’s session however, both indices had managed to undo much of the damage. Nvidia shares closed at $129 yesterday, down from highs of $153 three weeks ago. As for the rest of the financial markets, things are somewhat tame in comparison. The Dollar gained some strength yesterday, the DXY rising half a percent to just under 108. Currency traders are bracing for back-to-back announcements from the Bank of Canada and the Federal Reserve. The former is expected to shave a quarter percent off the current 3.25% whereas the latter is expected to remain steadfast at 4.5%. Of course, it is not all about numbers. Today marks the Fed’s first interest rate decision under the Trump administration and markets will be keen to gauge the general sentiment among board members.
蛇年即將到來，是時候擺脫不良的交易習慣了。昨天，美國股市表現不錯，從週一英偉達（NVDA）股票大規模拋售的影響中恢復。對於錯過這一消息的人來說，中國新創公司DeepSeek出人意料地發布了其AI模型的開源版本，據稱可以與矽谷最好的產品競爭。更重要的是，該公司以遠低於競爭對手的價格訓練了這個模型。這項消息導致英偉達市值蒸發了近0.5兆美元，因為市場認為AI專案的硬體需求並不像先前認為的那麼高。不需要過多的GPU。英偉達週一收盤暴跌17%，連帶著那斯達克指數（NDX）和標普500指數（SPX）一起下跌。然而，到週二收盤時，這兩個指數都設法挽回了大部分損失。英偉達股票昨收在129美元，較三週前153美元的高點下跌。 至於其他金融市場，相較之下相對平靜。美元昨走強，美元指數（DXY）上漲半個百分點，略低於108。貨幣交易員正在為加拿大銀行和聯準會的連續公告做準備。預計前者將把目前3.25%的利率下調四分之一個百分點，而後者預計將堅持在4.5%。當然，這不僅僅是關於數字。今天是川普政府下聯準會的首次利率決議，市場將密切關注委員會成員的整體情緒。
The Dollar weakened considerably last week as markets began to question the resolve behind trade tariff posturing. The DXY suffered its worst week since last November, falling the better part of 2% to the mid-107 range. Despite president Trump’s repeated calls to address the trade imbalance, market participants have been waiting for something a little more concrete. Judging by the recent events in Colombia, the wait may be over. The USD made a stand early this morning and the Dollar Currency Index is up 0.2% at the time of writing. Despite everything, interest rate traders have cemented their prediction of zero change during the next Fed meeting on Wednesday. Gold was all too happy to capitalise on the weakness exhibited by the Greenback, climbing to within a few Dollars of its previous all-time high. The precious metal rose to $2,770 an ounce by Friday’s close, just shy of the record $2,790 from last October. Weakness in the Dollar aside, the uncertainty surrounding tariffs and sanctions is also a contributing factor to the rise in gold. Safe-haven inflows are back on the menu. The Lunar New Year is just around the corner so trading conditions may be somewhat off this week. Chinese markets will be closed from tomorrow until next Monday. Not much on the economic calendar today or tomorrow but on Wednesday both the Bank of Canada and Federal Reserve will convene to establish interest rates on their respective currencies. The former is expected to lower rates on the Canadian Dollar down to 3% from 3.25% whereas the Fed is expected to keep rates steady at 4.5%. The ECB follows on Thursday and is expected to lower the deposit facility rate on the Euro down to 2.75% from 3%. The big event on Friday is the publication of the PCE price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation metric. If the first week of Donald Trump’s presidency is anything to go by then the second should make for equally exciting times. Worth keeping an eye on ongoing developments, particularly those relating to tariffs.
