Carnage. Donald Trump kicked up a storm over the weekend by imposing tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China, effective as early as Tuesday. It goes without saying that financial markets have been going haywire since the announcement and as trading begins in earnest this morning things may escalate further. Mind the gap. As expected, there has been an immediate reaction in currencies. The Dollar is currently on a rampage and is causing mayhem on the usual pairs; DXY up 1.2% at the time of writing. The Euro experienced a rude awakening this morning, opening with a huge gap to the downside near $1.02. Worth bearing in mind that Trump has also threatened the EU with similar tariffs. The Canadian Dollar took a predictable hammering this morning, USDCAD currently fighting to remain below 1.48. Cryptocurrencies were similarly quick to respond, getting obliterated across the board. Bitcoin has been decimated over the weekend, suffering a solid 10% loss and plummeting to lows of $91k this morning. Needless to say, the reaction in the lower caps has been even more devastating. A sea of red. As for precious metals, gold has retreated from recent all-time highs, falling to $2,775 this morning after seeing a record $2,817 an ounce on Friday. A busy start to the week no doubt, but in all likelihood the drama is far from over. Manufacturing and services PMIs dominate the economic calendar early this week, after which the Bank of England will announce its latest interest rate decision on Thursday. It all culminates on Friday with the latest round of NFP data, but traders would do well to remember that geopolitical developments could steal the show at any time.
美元 这是一个乏味但必不可少的答案。美元是世界储备货币，在可预见的未来仍将保持这一地位。强大的美元几乎是所有国际贸易默认的支付手段。即使没有特朗普总统，美元的优势地位也是无可争议的，但在特朗普的领导下，市场参与者可以预期美元将被更激进地使用。 第一个原因是美元与其他货币之间的利率差异。截至撰写本文时，美元利率为4.5%。相比之下，欧元利率约为3%。日元利率刚刚调整至0.5%。简而言之，美元能够获得更高的利息收益使其更具吸引力。过去四个月美元的上涨很大程度上是由于利率差异。当美国政府开始呼吁激进降息时，这一点值得记住。降低利率会削弱美元，而将利率维持在当前高位则确保需求保持强劲。 关税是第二个原因。更高的关税及其威胁在未来几年将对美元产生重大影响。这里涉及许多机制，但简单来说，每当政府似乎在关税问题上软化立场时，美元往往会对竞争货币失去优势。唐纳德·特朗普总统任期的第一周就出现了美元的显著下跌，很大程度上是因为预期的关税公告未能实现。 更普遍的是，大宗商品市场都是以美元计价的事实。无论交易者关注的是黄金、石油还是其他商品，美元都在交易的终端。最好持续关注它。 原油 与大多数其他市场相比，油价更多地植根于现实。世界每天消耗数百万桶石油，这意味着供需动态决定一切。减产、供应链中断、制裁和关税都会迅速且不可避免地推高原油价格。另一方面，需求疲软也会迅速导致价格下跌。 正因为如此，石油市场是最容易受地缘政治事件影响的市场之一。正如我们在去年所见，中东地区的每一个事态发展都立即引发了原油价格的反应。有关俄乌冲突中炼油厂遭到袭击的新闻也产生了类似的影响。 在未来几年的国际关系中，针对石油生产国的制裁和关税无疑将成为重要话题，但一个经常被忽视的因素是需求方面。不幸的是，全球工业生产下降，这意味着对石油的需求也在下降。特别是欧洲制造业近期受到严重打击，具有讽刺意味的是，部分原因是由于对俄罗斯石油和天然气实施禁运导致当地能源价格上涨。中国经济近年来也表现出一些脆弱性。美国甚至开始出现裂痕。如果全球需求继续下降，原油价格可能会随之下跌。 经济增长实际上与更高的石油需求是同义词。石油市场的相互关联性和相关性确保它们将在任何政治或经济转变的前沿保持地位。不容忽视。 加密货币 即将上任的政府已经非常明确地表明了其对加密货币的立场。加密货币市场的反应同样明确。自大选以来，比特币上涨了50%。交易所出现大量资金流入。罗斯·乌布里希出狱（自2011年起创建并运营暗网市场丝绸之路，直到 2013 年被捕）。放松监管的呼声响亮清晰。 近期与美国证券交易委员会（SEC）打交道一直很困难，这么说还是轻描淡写。但变革正在发生。前证交会主席加里·詹斯勒早已离任，他的继任者保罗·阿特金斯，尽管仍在等待确认，但与离任团队的立场完全相反。 过去几年是加密货币历史上最黑暗的时期之一。令人窒息且混乱的监管在这个新兴行业最需要指导的时候重创了它。业内许多声音一再恳求获得更多明确性，却只得到惩罚性措施作为回应。除此之外，这段时期还被我们见过的最严重的诈骗、黑客攻击和丑闻所玷污。仅FTX崩溃造成的损失就达到数十亿美元。这完全是不可原谅的。 所有迹象都表明糟糕时期即将结束。许多之前被搁置的发展正等待被释放，有趣的时期即将到来。 人工智能 在上任的第一周，特朗普总统宣布了星门计划（Stargate Project）。该计划计划在未来四年内向美国的人工智能基础设施投资5000亿美元。仅这一宣布就引发了最有可能从这项投资中受益的科技公司股票的大量买入活动。 芯片制造商可能会继续受到深具实力投资者的密切关注。英伟达(NVDA)股价仅在2024年就几乎翻了两轮，该公司现在已经与美国最大的科技巨头并驾齐驱。这种上涨主要是由人工智能领域的预期进展推动的。有人可能会说人工智能带动的炒作有些不合理，时间会证明一切。然而，如此规模的承诺不容忽视。 在人工智能方面，特别是在美国和中国之间，正在发展一场国际军备竞赛。在星门计划宣布后不久，中国初创公司DeepSeek出人意料地发布了其人工智能模型的开源版本，据称可以与硅谷最好的产品竞争。更令人惊讶的是，该模型的训练成本仅为美国同类产品的一小部分。 就像加密货币行业一样，在普通民众中对人工智能存在着一定程度的怀疑。保持怀疑当然没有错，但正如任何精明的投资者都知道的那样，始终值得关注资金的流向。
United States Dollar A boring but essential answer. The United States Dollar is the world’s reserve currency and will remain so for the foreseeable future. The mighty Greenback is the default means of payment for almost all international trade. The Dollar’s supremacy is incontestable even without a Trump presidency, but with DJT at the helm market participants can expect the Dollar to be wielded more aggressively than usual. One part of the equation is the difference in interest rates between the Dollar and other currencies. As of the time of writing, rates on the Dollar are 4.5%. In contrast, rates on the Euro are around 3%. The rate on the Japanese Yen has just been adjusted to 0.5%. Put simply, the ability to earn higher interest on the Dollar makes it more attractive. A large part of the Dollar’s ascendency over the past four months is due to interest rate differentials. This is worth bearing in mind when the US government starts calling for aggressive rate cuts. Slashing interest rates would weaken the Dollar, whereas maintaining them at the current high levels ensures demand remains strong. Tariffs are the second part of the equation. Higher tariffs and the threat thereof will have a significant impact on the Dollar over the coming years. There are many mechanisms at play here, but suffice to say that every time the administration appears to soften its tone on tariffs, the Dollar tends to lose out against competing currencies. The first week of Donald Trump’s presidency saw significant declines in the Dollar, in no small part because expected tariff announcements failed to materialise. More generally, the fact is that commodity markets are denominated in Dollars. Whether traders are looking at gold, oil or anything else, the Dollar is on the other side of the trade. Best to keep an eye on it. Crude oil More so than most other markets, the price of oil is heavily grounded in reality. The world consumes millions of barrels of oil every single day, which means that supply and demand dynamics dictate everything. Reduced production, disruptions in the supply chain, sanctions and tariffs will quickly and inevitably increase the price of crude oil. On the other hand, faltering demand will rapidly cause prices to fall. Because of this, oil markets are some of the more susceptible to geopolitical events. As we saw throughout last year, every development in the Middle East prompted an immediate response in the price of crude oil. News items relating to attacks on refineries in the Russia-Ukraine conflict had a similar impact. Talk of sanctions and tariffs against oil-producing nations will no doubt feature prominently in international relations over the next few years, but one of the more overlooked elements is the demand side of things. Unfortunately, industrial production is down across the globe, meaning demand for oil is also on the decline. European manufacturing in particular has been hit hard in recent times, ironically in part because of higher local energy prices due to embargoes against Russian oil and gas. The Chinese economy has also exhibited some fragility in recent years. Cracks are even starting to appear in the United States. Should worldwide demand continue to fall, crude prices may follow suit. Economic growth is practically synonymous with higher oil consumption. The interconnectedness and relevancy of oil markets ensure they will remain at the forefront of any political or economic shift. Not to be overlooked. Cryptocurrencies The incoming administration has been abundantly clear on its stance on cryptocurrencies. The response from the crypto markets has been equally unambiguous. Bitcoin is up 50% since the election. Exchanges have seen huge inflows. Ross Ulbricht is out of prison. Calls for deregulation are ringing out loud and clear. The Securities and Exchange Commission has been difficult to contend with in recent times, to put it mildly. But change is in the air. Former chair of the SEC Gary Gensler is long gone and his replacement, Paul Atkins, although still awaiting confirmation, could not be more diametrically opposed to the outgoing team. The last few years were some of the darkest in the history of crypto. Stifling and confusing regulations crippled the fledgling industry just when it needed guidance the most. Many voices in the scene repeatedly begged for greater clarity, only to receive nothing but punitive measures in response. On top of that, the period was marred by the worst scams, hacks and scandals we have ever seen. The losses from the collapse of FTX alone reached into the billions. Utterly unforgiveable. All signs are pointing to the bad times drawing to an end. Many developments that have been held back until now are waiting to be unleashed. Interesting times ahead. Artificial Intelligence During his first week in office, President Trump announced the Stargate Project. The project intends to invest $500 billion over the next four years in AI infrastructure in the United States. The announcement alone triggered a flurry of buying activity in the tech companies most likely to benefit from such an investment. Chip manufacturers are likely to remain under the scrutinous gaze of investors with deep pockets. Nvidia (NVDA) shares almost tripled in price in 2024 alone and the company now stands shoulder to shoulder with the largest tech giants in America. The rise was largely fuelled by anticipated advancements in the AI sector. An argument could be made that the hype surrounding Artificial Intelligence is somewhat unjustified, time will tell. Pledges of such magnitude cannot be ignored however. There is something of an international arms race developing when it comes to AI, particularly between the US and China. Shortly after the announcement of Project Stargate, Chinese startup DeepSeek surprised everyone by releasing an open-source version of its AI model that supposedly competes with the best of what Silicon Valley has to offer. Even more surprisingly, the model was trained at a fraction of the cost of its US counterparts. Much like with the cryptocurrency industry, there is a certain amount of scepticism among large swathes of the general population when it comes to AI. There is certainly nothing wrong with being sceptical, but as any savvy investor will know, it is always worth keeping tabs on where the money is going.
The year of the snake is upon us; time to shed bad trading habits. Yesterday, US stock markets made a decent show of recovering from the fallout of the massive sell-off in Nvidia (NVDA) shares that occurred on Monday. For those who missed it, Chinese start-up DeepSeek surprised the world by releasing an open source version of its AI model that supposedly competes with the best of what Silicon Valley has to offer. More importantly, the company trained the model for a fraction of the price of its competitors. The news prompted a half-trillion Dollar loss in Nvidia’s market cap, the assumption being that the hardware requirements for AI endeavours are not as high as previously thought. GPUs not needed. Nvidia plunged 17% by Monday’s close, dragging the Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 down along with it. By the end of Tuesday’s session however, both indices had managed to undo much of the damage. Nvidia shares closed at $129 yesterday, down from highs of $153 three weeks ago. As for the rest of the financial markets, things are somewhat tame in comparison. The Dollar gained some strength yesterday, the DXY rising half a percent to just under 108. Currency traders are bracing for back-to-back announcements from the Bank of Canada and the Federal Reserve. The former is expected to shave a quarter percent off the current 3.25% whereas the latter is expected to remain steadfast at 4.5%. Of course, it is not all about numbers. Today marks the Fed’s first interest rate decision under the Trump administration and markets will be keen to gauge the general sentiment among board members.
蛇年即将到来，是时候摆脱不良的交易习惯了。昨天，美国股市表现不错，从周一英伟达（NVDA）股票大规模抛售的影响中恢复。对于错过这一消息的人来说，中国初创公司DeepSeek出人意料地发布了其AI模型的开源版本，据称可以与硅谷最好的产品竞争。更重要的是，该公司以远低于竞争对手的价格训练了这个模型。这一消息导致英伟达市值蒸发了近0.5兆美元，因为市场认为AI项目的硬件需求并不像此前认为的那么高。不需要过多的GPU。英伟达周一收盘暴跌17%，连带着纳斯达克综合指数（NDX）和标普500指数（SPX）一起下跌。然而，到周二收盘时，这两个指数都设法挽回了大部分损失。英伟达股票昨日收于129美元，较三周前153美元的高点有所下跌。 至于其他金融市场，相比之下相对平静。美元昨日走强，美元指数（DXY）上涨半个百分点，略低于108。货币交易员正在为加拿大银行和美联储的连续公告做准备。预计前者将把当前3.25%的利率下调四分之一个百分点，而后者预计将坚持在4.5%。当然，这不仅仅是关于数字。今天是特朗普政府下美联储的首次利率决议，市场将密切关注委员会成员的整体情绪。
The Dollar weakened considerably last week as markets began to question the resolve behind trade tariff posturing. The DXY suffered its worst week since last November, falling the better part of 2% to the mid-107 range. Despite president Trump’s repeated calls to address the trade imbalance, market participants have been waiting for something a little more concrete. Judging by the recent events in Colombia, the wait may be over. The USD made a stand early this morning and the Dollar Currency Index is up 0.2% at the time of writing. Despite everything, interest rate traders have cemented their prediction of zero change during the next Fed meeting on Wednesday. Gold was all too happy to capitalise on the weakness exhibited by the Greenback, climbing to within a few Dollars of its previous all-time high. The precious metal rose to $2,770 an ounce by Friday’s close, just shy of the record $2,790 from last October. Weakness in the Dollar aside, the uncertainty surrounding tariffs and sanctions is also a contributing factor to the rise in gold. Safe-haven inflows are back on the menu. The Lunar New Year is just around the corner so trading conditions may be somewhat off this week. Chinese markets will be closed from tomorrow until next Monday. Not much on the economic calendar today or tomorrow but on Wednesday both the Bank of Canada and Federal Reserve will convene to establish interest rates on their respective currencies. The former is expected to lower rates on the Canadian Dollar down to 3% from 3.25% whereas the Fed is expected to keep rates steady at 4.5%. The ECB follows on Thursday and is expected to lower the deposit facility rate on the Euro down to 2.75% from 3%. The big event on Friday is the publication of the PCE price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation metric. If the first week of Donald Trump’s presidency is anything to go by then the second should make for equally exciting times. Worth keeping an eye on ongoing developments, particularly those relating to tariffs.
